#173 Alpha Score 83.7

u/CoolioBeansTTV

Reddit r/ValueInvesting
· tracked since Mar 2026
173
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Alpha Score 83.7
Calls
6
Win Rate
66.7%
return
+10.0%
Calls 6 4 Posts tracked · 0.0/day
Calls
7d 0
30d 0
90d 0
Best Calls
LAD Long +40.3%
VTRS Long +30.1%
LRCX Long +12.9%
Worst Calls
ACHR Long -18.3%
LEN Long -9.6%
Most Mentioned
VRT ×1
LEN ×1
LRCX ×1
Recent Calls
ACHR Long 4 months ago
LRCX Long 4 months ago
VRT Long 4 months ago
Win Rate 67% Long 6 Short 0
Win Rate
7d 0%
30d 83%
90d 67%
Average Return +10.0% Long Return +10.0% Short Return -
Average Return
7d -8.2%
30d +5.8%
90d +22.8%
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Result
Result
Sort
Theme Stance
Ticker
Side
Mentions
First Call
Call Price
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Long
Mar 23
$5.89
-18.3%
ACHR is hiring 16% YoY, growing social media presence (IG up 18%), and has $2B in cash to fund commercialization. Positive alternative data metrics suggest internal confidence in their path to commercialization, with analysts projecting a $11 price target versus the current $6. A high-risk, high-reward "lottery ticket" play with 75% upside if they execute on their commercialization goals. Pre-revenue company; highly speculative with significant execution and regulatory risks.
ACHR is hiring 16% YoY, growing social media presence (IG up 18%), and has $2B in cash to fund commercialization. Positive alternative data metrics suggest internal confidence in their path to commercialization, with analysts projecting a $11 price target versus the current $6. A high-risk, high-reward "lottery ticket" play with 75% upside if they execute on their commercialization goals. Pre-revenue company; highly speculative with significant execution and regulatory risks.
Aerospace
Long
Mar 23
$234.90
+12.9%
LRCX is growing revenue 24% YoY with 29% net margins, job postings are up 62% in six months, and internal business outlook is at 94/100. High internal employee sentiment and aggressive hiring suggest management sees no impending slowdown, while recent Congressional buying adds a positive sentiment indicator. A stealthy semiconductor equipment play with strong internal momentum and financial health. Semiconductor equipment is highly cyclical; a broader macro downturn could halt capital expenditures.
LRCX is growing revenue 24% YoY with 29% net margins, job postings are up 62% in six months, and internal business outlook is at 94/100. High internal employee sentiment and aggressive hiring suggest management sees no impending slowdown, while recent Congressional buying adds a positive sentiment indicator. A stealthy semiconductor equipment play with strong internal momentum and financial health. Semiconductor equipment is highly cyclical; a broader macro downturn could halt capital expenditures.
Foundry Equipment
Long
Mar 23
$257.87
+4.9%
VRT guided for 30%+ sales growth in 2026 with a $15B backlog, and LinkedIn job postings doubled from 1,000 to 2,000 in six months. Massive spikes in hiring velocity combined with surging orders (up 252%) indicate the company is aggressively expanding to meet data center demand, suggesting future earnings beats. Strong buy based on fundamental growth and alternative hiring data confirming the expansion. The stock has already rallied significantly ($54 to $277), making it vulnerable to multiple compression if growth slows.
VRT guided for 30%+ sales growth in 2026 with a $15B backlog, and LinkedIn job postings doubled from 1,000 to 2,000 in six months. Massive spikes in hiring velocity combined with surging orders (up 252%) indicate the company is aggressively expanding to meet data center demand, suggesting future earnings beats. Strong buy based on fundamental growth and alternative hiring data confirming the expansion. The stock has already rallied significantly ($54 to $277), making it vulnerable to multiple compression if growth slows.
Grid Equipment
Long
Mar 17
$255.41
+40.3%
Lithia Motors trades at ~8.9x forward P/E with its finance arm (Driveway Finance Corp) turning its first profitable year at $75M. The profitable finance arm adds a high-margin recurring revenue stream, and management's aggressive 11.4% share buyback signals strong internal conviction in the valuation gap. A deeply discounted auto retailer with significant upside to fair value estimates (Morningstar FV $387) and strong buyback support. A slowdown in consumer auto spending or rising defaults in their newly profitable finance arm.
Lithia Motors trades at ~8.9x forward P/E with its finance arm (Driveway Finance Corp) turning its first profitable year at $75M. The profitable finance arm adds a high-margin recurring revenue stream, and management's aggressive 11.4% share buyback signals strong internal conviction in the valuation gap. A deeply discounted auto retailer with significant upside to fair value estimates (Morningstar FV $387) and strong buyback support. A slowdown in consumer auto spending or rising defaults in their newly profitable finance arm.
Autos & EV
Long
Mar 17
$96.95
-9.6%
Lennar trades at ~7x forward P/E, has a strong balance sheet ($2.1B cash, <15% debt-to-capital), and benefits from a 4 million US home deficit. The lock-in effect of 3% mortgages makes new builds the primary housing supply, while their recent asset-light spinoff and lower construction costs boost margins. A fundamentally cheap homebuilder with political insider buying and an upcoming spring selling season catalyst. Macroeconomic shocks to the housing market or persistently high interest rates dampening buyer demand.
Lennar trades at ~7x forward P/E, has a strong balance sheet ($2.1B cash, <15% debt-to-capital), and benefits from a 4 million US home deficit. The lock-in effect of 3% mortgages makes new builds the primary housing supply, while their recent asset-light spinoff and lower construction costs boost margins. A fundamentally cheap homebuilder with political insider buying and an upcoming spring selling season catalyst. Macroeconomic shocks to the housing market or persistently high interest rates dampening buyer demand.
Homebuilders
Long
Mar 17
$13.80
+30.1%
Viatris trades at ~5.5x forward P/E following a major restructuring, debt paydown, and a 170% jump in open job positions. The massive spike in hiring indicates growth rather than maintenance, and the upcoming October FDA date for MR-141 presents a massive TAM opportunity. A deeply undervalued turnaround play with strong institutional backing and a major pipeline catalyst. FDA rejection of MR-141 or failure to execute on the post-restructuring growth strategy.
Viatris trades at ~5.5x forward P/E following a major restructuring, debt paydown, and a 170% jump in open job positions. The massive spike in hiring indicates growth rather than maintenance, and the upcoming October FDA date for MR-141 presents a massive TAM opportunity. A deeply undervalued turnaround play with strong institutional backing and a major pipeline catalyst. FDA rejection of MR-141 or failure to execute on the post-restructuring growth strategy.
Pharma & Biotech
Showing 6 of 6 calls · sorted by mentions

u/CoolioBeansTTV has 6 trade ideas tracked on Buzzberg across 6 tickers since March 2026. Ranked #173 on the Buzzberg Alpha leaderboard. Most covered: VRT, LEN, LRCX.