BSX trades at $44, down from $90 in January, with Value Line estimating EPS of $3.25 this year and $3.50 next year (P/E ~13.5x), and the company completed an $2B ASR at ~$53/share. The market overreacted to the Penumbra acquisition and debt concerns; if PEN shareholders take cash (as implied by the stock drop), BSX avoids dilution and can use strong cash flows to de-lever, while EPS continues to grow. Buying BSX at a 13-14x forward P/E with double-digit EPS growth and a management team that aggressively repurchases shares provides a margin of safety and upside potential over the medium to long term. Integration of Penumbra could underperform; debt load from the $14.5B acquisition may pressure margins or trigger downgrades; sector rotation away from medtech could keep the stock depressed.
BSX trades at $44, down from $90 in January, with Value Line estimating EPS of $3.25 this year and $3.50 next year (P/E ~13.5x), and the company completed an $2B ASR at ~$53/share. The market overreacted to the Penumbra acquisition and debt concerns; if PEN shareholders take cash (as implied by the stock drop), BSX avoids dilution and can use strong cash flows to de-lever, while EPS continues to grow. Buying BSX at a 13-14x forward P/E with double-digit EPS growth and a management team that aggressively repurchases shares provides a margin of safety and upside potential over the medium to long term. Integration of Penumbra could underperform; debt load from the $14.5B acquisition may pressure margins or trigger downgrades; sector rotation away from medtech could keep the stock depressed.