Calls
1
u/Adrian-The-Great
Reddit r/ValueInvesting
Win Rate
100.0%
return
+11.2%
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Ticker
Side
Mentions
First Call
Call Price
P&L
Thesis
Theme
Source
Short
Jul 12
$979.30
+11.2%
Micron locked in ~$100B in take-or-pay agreements with price ceilings at current market levels through 2030, covering ~40% of revenue. Record gross margin of 84.9% was driven by price (+62%), not volume (+3%). Selling upside cheaply indicates management expects prices to decline; the cycle is peaking. SK Hynix’s $26.5B IPO will fund capacity that ends the shortage, reinforcing the bearish commodity cycle logic. Micron’s business is highly commodity-like, and the price ceiling contracts confirm the market is near peak pricing. Shorting Micron offers a play on mean reversion in DRAM prices. HBM demand could sustain high prices longer than expected; Micron’s contract floors may provide downside protection; the memory shortage could extend past 2030.
Micron locked in ~$100B in take-or-pay agreements with price ceilings at current market levels through 2030, covering ~40% of revenue. Record gross margin of 84.9% was driven by price (+62%), not volume (+3%). Selling upside cheaply indicates management expects prices to decline; the cycle is peaking. SK Hynix’s $26.5B IPO will fund capacity that ends the shortage, reinforcing the bearish commodity cycle logic. Micron’s business is highly commodity-like, and the price ceiling contracts confirm the market is near peak pricing. Shorting Micron offers a play on mean reversion in DRAM prices. HBM demand could sustain high prices longer than expected; Micron’s contract floors may provide downside protection; the memory shortage could extend past 2030.
AI Memory
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u/Adrian-The-Great has 1 trade ideas tracked on Buzzberg across 1 tickers since July 2026. Most covered: MU.
