He pushes aside the dollar gloom and sees durable faith in the dollar; despite an ugly week in the Bloomberg Dollar Index, expectations of sustained dollar strength are supported by the dollar's role in the payment system, while a weaker dollar would create stress in yen, euro and emerging markets.
The Treasury buyback program is best viewed as a stabilizer. Bond yields are near fair value around the low 4s: inflation compensation around 2.5%, real neutral around 1-1.5%, and term premium around 1%. Investors have an opportunity to lock in higher interest rates, with high-quality double-A portfolios offering about 5-7% and historically very high recovery odds.
The Treasury buyback program is best viewed as a stabilizer. Bond yields are near fair value around the low 4s: inflation compensation around 2.5%, real neutral around 1-1.5%, and term premium around 1%. Investors have an opportunity to lock in higher interest rates, with high-quality double-A portfolios offering about 5-7% and historically very high recovery odds.