Central banks are buying gold at record levels, with 45% of surveyed central banks intending to increase gold reserves over the next 12 months, the highest ever. This structural demand, alongside geopolitical risk and desire for diversification, supports a bullish medium-term gold outlook with a price target of $5,150/oz, even though near-term macro headwinds (rising real yields, stronger dollar, ETF outflows, India demand slowdown) keep the price fragile.
Platinum benefits from high demand growth and is expected to be in undersupply for the next couple of years, supported by supply constraints from South Africa and demand in chips/electronics.