With the U.S. economy still resilient and inflation well above the Fed's target for over five years, the market is rightfully biased toward interest rate hikes rather than cuts. Rate cuts this year are off the table, and balance sheet tightening is a next-year story, so short-term rates should stay elevated or move higher.
Regardless of short‑term oil price moves, the US‑Iran deal reinforces a longer‑term shift: countries will spend heavily to secure energy supply chains and build new infrastructure. Energy infrastructure is therefore a high‑certainty, long‑term investment that should outperform.