Bitcoin has held the 200-week moving average support despite escalating geopolitical tensions. Weekly ETF inflows turned positive, and institutional adoption is accelerating — Morgan Stanley is launching spot crypto trading via E*Trade, which could narrow crypto exchange valuation premiums. The probability of favorable US crypto legislation is low right now, creating a low-expectation environment where positive surprises could yield high returns. The price challenge at $65,000 suggests a high chance of a breakout.