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Japan is well-positioned to benefit from the Asia CapEx supercycle driven by supply chain rewiring, defense spending, and AI infrastructure, combined with structural corporate reforms and an improving macro environment where deflation is behind. Additionally, a potential reallocation of household savings from deposits to equities could drive meaningful upside. The Morgan Stanley strategists expect double-digit returns in Japanese equities this year.
In a de-escalation scenario that returns conditions to the status quo ante, US equities should rally meaningfully. Half the Russell 3000 is already down over 20%, and substantial multiple compression has occurred, so a snapback is possible. The Morgan Stanley equity strategy team sees a price target for substantial returns on a 12-month basis in that scenario.
Episodic risk from funding fights such as debt ceiling extensions could drive risk-off rallies in U.S. Treasury notes and bonds, as per Morgan Stanley rate strategists.
AI capex is still in early stages, with hyperscalers planning massive spending and only a fraction of the buildout completed. Estimates point to $2.9 trillion in global data center capex through 2028, and consensus expects AI infrastructure stocks to grow earnings 42% by 2027 versus 10% for the S&P 500. Even if the ultimate ROI is debated, the spending is locked in.
Market fears of an enterprise software apocalypse are overblown. These companies retain a moat because industrializing AI inside large organizations still requires their platforms; the selloff has created value.
Europe is being forced to re-industrialize and spend on defense, ending its post-WWII stasis. European equities contain many heavy-asset businesses that could be sneaky AI beneficiaries through productivity gains, making the region more investable.
Michael Zezas has 6 trade ideas tracked on Buzzberg across 6 tickers since April 2026. Ranked #637 on the Buzzberg Alpha leaderboard. Most covered: EWJ, TLT, SPY.
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