Memory semiconductor cycle is supply-driven, not demand-driven. Record semiconductor equipment shipments from 2023 to 2025 are now turning into massive oversupply, causing spot memory prices to fall and fixed contract prices to peak and decline within 3–4 quarters. Memory prices will retrace all excess gains and fall toward breakeven levels, severely hurting earnings of major memory makers like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
Memory semiconductor cycle is supply-driven, not demand-driven. Record semiconductor equipment shipments from 2023 to 2025 are now turning into massive oversupply, causing spot memory prices to fall and fixed contract prices to peak and decline within 3–4 quarters. Memory prices will retrace all excess gains and fall toward breakeven levels, severely hurting earnings of major memory makers like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
AI is a bubble, driven by massive data center investment that far exceeds real paying demand. The data center investment cycle historically runs 3 years on, 3 years off and is now at a peak. Declining free cash flow at big tech firms and rising interest rates will force a multi-year pullback in AI infrastructure spending, hurting stocks like NVIDIA.