Jim Welsh

Believes gold is in a multi-month correction and will see more price erosion, with a chance to dip below $4,100. Notes gold has not performed well as a safe haven recently. A completed corrective wave pattern (A-B-C) from the 2025 high is underway. A stronger US dollar and potential peace in the Middle East would be near-term negatives for gold. Expects a downward move to complete the correction, presenting a better buying opportunity at lower levels. A severe, unexpected escalation in the Middle East that directly threatens oil infrastructure could trigger a flight to safety, boosting gold.

Stated the S&P is in a downtrend (lower highs, lower lows) and expects "one more shoe to drop" from Middle East escalation, leading to a selloff that could take the index down closer to 6,000-6,200. The anticipated geopolitical escalation will create a final wave of selling pressure before the market is positioned for a more sustainable rally. Advises a defensive posture and raising cash, implying a short or avoid stance until this lower target is reached. A rapid de-escalation in the Middle East could trigger the anticipated rally prematurely.