Oil underpriced due to supply shock, low inventory
Markets are underestimating the supply shock from the Iran conflict. Inventories have been drawn down substantially to insulate consumers, leaving less cushion. Even if tensions ease, every piece of bad news will have a bigger downside impact on prices. Oil is not pricing in the real physical tightness, creating upside risk.
Emerging markets benefit from structural forces like diversification by global reserve managers, easing dollar dominance, and secular growth in the Global South. These factors outweigh the typical headwind of higher US rates, making EM equities attractive.
European equities are more attractive than US equities because of better monetary and fiscal policy posture, less overvaluation from AI enthusiasm, and an improved ability to weather supply shocks. He is more bullish on Europe than he has been in a long time.