Danny Moses

"If $65 oil happens, it's the cheapest stock in the S&P 500." (Referring to Exxon Mobil). The market is pricing energy stocks as if oil is crashing to $45-$50. However, oil has stabilized around $65-$70 (WTI). Furthermore, geopolitical risks (Iran/Israel) are not priced in. Therefore, energy majors like Exxon offer a massive valuation safety margin even without a price spike. LONG energy majors and the broader sector for valuation and geopolitical hedging. A global recession crushing oil demand; rapid de-escalation of geopolitical conflicts.

"I'm long gold. I would be long silver here... The industrial use for silver is real... We need silver as our conduit... in these data centers." Gold is the hedge against US debt/deficit spiraling and dollar debasement. Silver, however, has a dual thesis: it is a monetary hedge *and* an industrial necessity for the AI buildout (data centers) and green energy (solar). Supply is inelastic, so increased industrial demand must drive prices higher. LONG precious metals, with a specific emphasis on Silver and Silver Miners (SILJ) for the industrial "catch-up" trade. A strengthening US Dollar; deflationary crash reducing industrial demand for silver.

"If you are a bull on AI I don't know how you don't own uranium... nuclear which is about 19% of US power source is only going to grow." AI data centers require massive baseload power. Wind and solar are intermittent. The only scalable, carbon-free baseload solution is nuclear. This creates a structural supply deficit for physical uranium (SRUUF) and benefits the miners (CCJ/URA) who will supply the fuel for new reactors. LONG uranium miners and physical trusts as a derivative play on AI energy consumption. Regulatory hurdles for new nuclear plants; another nuclear accident (e.g., Fukushima style event).

"If $65 oil happens, it's the cheapest stock in the S&P 500." (Referring to Exxon Mobil). The market is pricing energy stocks as if oil is crashing to $45-$50. However, oil has stabilized around $65-$70 (WTI). Furthermore, geopolitical risks (Iran/Israel) are not priced in. Therefore, energy majors like Exxon offer a massive valuation safety margin even without a price spike. LONG energy majors and the broader sector for valuation and geopolitical hedging. A global recession crushing oil demand; rapid de-escalation of geopolitical conflicts.

Buy gold and silver miners as a leveraged expression of the long-term bullish thesis on GLD/SLV; author frames miners as the preferred vehicle for the precious metals trade.

Buy gold and silver miners as a leveraged expression of the long-term bullish thesis on GLD/SLV; author frames miners as the preferred vehicle for the precious metals trade.

"If I were a retail investor right now looking to get myself exposure, I would be buying Blackstone, KKR and Apollo... I'd be buying the parent companies that large PE firms that have permanent capital, that have, you know, a huge fee income stream." While Moses is bearish on the *underlying* private credit loans due to liquidity risks, he is bullish on the *asset managers*. These firms collect fees regardless of underlying performance and offer liquidity (publicly traded stock) that the credit funds do not. Long the Asset Managers (GPs) as a way to play the credit boom without taking the illiquidity risk of the credit itself. A systemic collapse in private credit would eventually hurt the GPs' AUM and fee realization.

"If I were a retail investor right now looking to get myself exposure, I would be buying Blackstone, KKR and Apollo... I'd be buying the parent companies that large PE firms that have permanent capital, that have, you know, a huge fee income stream." While Moses is bearish on the *underlying* private credit loans due to liquidity risks, he is bullish on the *asset managers*. These firms collect fees regardless of underlying performance and offer liquidity (publicly traded stock) that the credit funds do not. Long the Asset Managers (GPs) as a way to play the credit boom without taking the illiquidity risk of the credit itself. A systemic collapse in private credit would eventually hurt the GPs' AUM and fee realization.

"If I were a retail investor right now looking to get myself exposure, I would be buying Blackstone, KKR and Apollo... I'd be buying the parent companies that large PE firms that have permanent capital, that have, you know, a huge fee income stream." While Moses is bearish on the *underlying* private credit loans due to liquidity risks, he is bullish on the *asset managers*. These firms collect fees regardless of underlying performance and offer liquidity (publicly traded stock) that the credit funds do not. Long the Asset Managers (GPs) as a way to play the credit boom without taking the illiquidity risk of the credit itself. A systemic collapse in private credit would eventually hurt the GPs' AUM and fee realization.

"We saw already from BLOCK... firing, you know, 40% of their staff... Your job is for margin expansion to produce earnings. If you see the opportunity to do it... you're going to do it." While Moses worries about the *macro* effect of unemployment, he acknowledges the *micro* benefit to the specific companies: AI and efficiency measures lead to margin expansion. Block (SQ) is the prime example of a company aggressively cutting costs to boost profitability. Long SQ (and similar efficiency-focused tech) for earnings growth via cost-cutting. The cuts signal deeper growth issues or the "white collar recession" eventually destroys consumer spending power, hurting Block's transaction volumes.

"If you are a bull on AI I don't know how you don't own uranium... nuclear which is about 19% of US power source is only going to grow." AI data centers require massive baseload power. Wind and solar are intermittent. The only scalable, carbon-free baseload solution is nuclear. This creates a structural supply deficit for physical uranium (SRUUF) and benefits the miners (CCJ/URA) who will supply the fuel for new reactors. LONG uranium miners and physical trusts as a derivative play on AI energy consumption. Regulatory hurdles for new nuclear plants; another nuclear accident (e.g., Fukushima style event).

"I'm long gold. I would be long silver here... The industrial use for silver is real... We need silver as our conduit... in these data centers." Gold is the hedge against US debt/deficit spiraling and dollar debasement. Silver, however, has a dual thesis: it is a monetary hedge *and* an industrial necessity for the AI buildout (data centers) and green energy (solar). Supply is inelastic, so increased industrial demand must drive prices higher. LONG precious metals, with a specific emphasis on Silver and Silver Miners (SILJ) for the industrial "catch-up" trade. A strengthening US Dollar; deflationary crash reducing industrial demand for silver.