Anna Paglia

SPYM was selected as the sole default fund for the new Trump Accounts program due to its ultralow 2 basis point expense ratio, broad S&P 500 market exposure, strong liquidity, and $40 billion in net new assets this year already. The mandatory initial contributions and matching funds will drive significant and consistent inflows, making SPYM a direct beneficiary.

State Street’s ETF business is turning around with multiple tailwinds: SPYM’s selection for Trump Accounts, the launch of a competitive NASDAQ 100 ETF (challenging Invesco’s dominance), and now offering the big three indices (S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, Dow). Strong continuous flows and shrinking market share of the whole industry make the firm well-positioned for growth.

Gold has not peaked and will likely repeat its record-breaking performance, supported by healthy inflows from investors hedging against inflation and geopolitical risks. The recent pullback is a temporary stabilization, not a reversal of the upward trend.

XLE is trading at inception highs (since 1998) with record inflows. OXY specifically mentioned as surging due to efficient Middle East operations despite the war. Geopolitical risk premium is returning to oil. Unlike previous crises, the US is energy independent, making US-based energy producers (held in XLE) a safe haven that benefits from global price spikes without the direct operational risk of assets located in the war zone. Momentum trade. Energy is the only sector acting as a true hedge right now. A quick diplomatic resolution or ceasefire could cause oil prices to crash rapidly.

The Private Credit ETF (PRIV) has tripled in size to $800M and is 80% investment grade. In a volatile environment where public equity markets are jittery about war, private credit offers yield with lower mark-to-market volatility. The focus on investment grade (rather than junk) provides a safety buffer against a recessionary shock caused by high oil prices. A defensive yield play. Liquidity events in the private credit space (referenced Blue Owl redemption issues, though Paglia dismisses the contagion risk).

XLE is trading at inception highs (since 1998) with record inflows. OXY specifically mentioned as surging due to efficient Middle East operations despite the war. Geopolitical risk premium is returning to oil. Unlike previous crises, the US is energy independent, making US-based energy producers (held in XLE) a safe haven that benefits from global price spikes without the direct operational risk of assets located in the war zone. Momentum trade. Energy is the only sector acting as a true hedge right now. A quick diplomatic resolution or ceasefire could cause oil prices to crash rapidly.