Amazon glide-down to cut another million pieces per day in 2026
UPS reported Q4 2025 results with revenue of $24.5B and operating margin of 11.8%, beating expectations. Management guided to flat full-year 2026 revenue and operating margin at $89.7B and 9.6% respectively, as they execute the final phases of the Amazon glide-down, network reconfiguration, and USPS Ground Saver transition, expecting a second-half recovery in profitability. They announced an accelerated retirement of the MD-11 aircraft fleet, replacing capacity with 18 new Boeing 767s. Q4 2025 revenue was $24.5B, operating margin was 11.8%, and EPS was $2.38, with all three segments contributing.
Buzzberg readAmazon glide-down to cut another million pieces per day in 2026UPS reported Q4 2025 results with revenue of $24.5B and operating margin of 11.8%, beating expectations. Management guided to flat full-year 2026 revenue and operating margin at $89.7B and 9.6% respectively, as they execute the final phases of the Amazon glide-down, network reconfiguration, and USPS Ground Saver transition, expecting a second-half recovery in profitability. They announced an accelerated retirement of the MD-11 aircraft fleet, replacing capacity with 18 new Boeing 767s. Q4 2025 revenue was $24.5B, operating margin was 11.8%, and EPS was $2.38, with all three segments contributing.Read full analysisCollapse analysis
UPS reported Q4 2025 results with revenue of $24.5B and operating margin of 11.8%, beating expectations. Management guided to flat full-year 2026 revenue and operating margin at $89.7B and 9.6% respectively, as they execute the final phases of the Amazon glide-down, network reconfiguration, and USPS Ground Saver transition, expecting a second-half recovery in profitability. They announced an accelerated retirement of the MD-11 aircraft fleet, replacing capacity with 18 new Boeing 767s. Q4 2025 revenue was $24.5B, operating margin was 11.8%, and EPS was $2.38, with all three segments contributing.
2026 revenue guidance is $89.7B, operating margin is ~9.6%, and EPS is ~flat to 2025, implying a challenging first half with stronger second half.
UPS plans to reduce Amazon volumes by a further 1 million pieces per day in 2026, completing its 6-quarter glide-down.
Ground Saver last-mile delivery is being transitioned to USPS, with full economics benefits expected in 2027.
Revenue$24.479B
reported
EPS$2.38
reported
Gross margin20.77%
reported
Op margin10.52%
reported
What changed this quarter
01
Guidance
Amazon glide-down to cut another million pieces per day in 2026
Guidance · revenue to $89.7B
02
Partnerships
USPS partnership to improve Ground Saver economics
Q4 2025 revenue was $24.5B, operating margin was 11.8%, and EPS was $2.38, with all three segments contributing.
03
Margins
U.S. operating margin flat for 2026, but second half inflection expected
Reported gross margin was 20.77%, reinforcing the quarter's better-than-guided profitability.
04
Margins
Early 2026 margin pressure from transition costs and MD-11 retirement
Reported gross margin was 20.77%, reinforcing the quarter's better-than-guided profitability.
Demand & capex
Demand
Bookings & conversion
2026 guidance implies a flat year as heavy transition costs and Amazon glide-down headwinds are offset by network efficiency gains, with growth expected in the second half.
Capex
Investment and capacity
Management is cutting capital expenditures to about $3 billion in 2026 from $3.7 billion in 2025, driven by lower volumes, building closures, and reduced vehicle purchases. They are continuing to invest in automation, with plans to increase automated facility processing to 68% of U.S. volume, and are financing new aircraft through leasing structures to maintain flexibility.
Tone · Measured
Management is confident in their strategic execution but acknowledges significant near-term headwinds and a 'bathtub' shaped year with first half pressure and second half recovery.
Supply-chain alpha
A1
UPS' cost per piece at automated facilities is 28% lower than at conventional facilities, creating a clear path to margin expansion as they climb from 66.5% to 68% automation.
“The cost per piece in these automated buildings is 28% less than the cost per piece in our conventional buildings.”
The 2025 insourcing of Ground Saver was a temporary ~$400-500M EBIT headwind, but the transition back to USPS will fully reverse this benefit only by 2027, not 2026.
“As we right-size the driver staffing levels and moving forward, then yes, over time, I think we'll get that back.”
… integrated network to seamlessly operate through peak season. Specifically, we repositioned some aircraft from other parts of the world to the U.S., We increased the amount of volume we moved on the ground, and we leased additional aircraft to meet capacity demands. With the learnings from operating during peak season, we made the decision to accelerate the retirement of our MD-11 fleet, which was completed in the fourth quarter. Over the next 15 months, we expect to take delivery of 18 new Boeing 767 aircraft, with 15 expected to deliver this year. As new aircraft join our fleet, we will step down the leased aircraft and associated expense. We believe these actions are consistent with building a more efficient global network positioned for growth, flexibility, and profitability. Now moving to our segment performance. U.S. Domestic demonstrated strong performance in the fourth quarter, driven by the combination of revenue quality and great execution. We delivered a very efficient peak, which is a testament to the transformational effects from the additional automation and network reconfiguration we made throughout the year. And importantly, we continued to take care of our …
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