Guidance
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FY2026 Q1
Raised
Targa Resources, Inc. earnings call
Buzzberg read
2026 EBITDA guidance raised by $300 million at midpoint
Targa reported record Q1 2026 results with adjusted EBITDA of $1.4B, up 5% sequentially, and raised full-year 2026 guidance by $300M at the midpoint. The beat was driven by strong Permian volumes, despite winter weather and producer shut-ins, plus robust gas marketing and LPG export opportunities. The company sees current volumes significantly ahead of Q1 average despite 200-400 MMcf/d of shut-ins, positioning it for a strong ramp when new takeaway capacity comes online. Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA was $1.4B, a record, driven by Permian acquisitions, strong producer activity, and marketing/optimization opportunities, partially offset by winter weather.
Buzzberg read 2026 EBITDA guidance raised by $300 million at midpoint Targa reported record Q1 2026 results with adjusted EBITDA of $1.4B, up 5% sequentially, and raised full-year 2026 guidance by $300M at the midpoint. The beat was driven by strong Permian volumes, despite winter weather and producer shut-ins, plus robust gas marketing and LPG export opportunities. The company sees current volumes significantly ahead of Q1 average despite 200-400 MMcf/d of shut-ins, positioning it for a strong ramp when new takeaway capacity comes online. Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA was $1.4B, a record, driven by Permian acquisitions, strong producer activity, and marketing/optimization opportunities, partially offset by winter weather. Read full analysisCollapse analysis
Targa reported record Q1 2026 results with adjusted EBITDA of $1.4B, up 5% sequentially, and raised full-year 2026 guidance by $300M at the midpoint. The beat was driven by strong Permian volumes, despite winter weather and producer shut-ins, plus robust gas marketing and LPG export opportunities. The company sees current volumes significantly ahead of Q1 average despite 200-400 MMcf/d of shut-ins, positioning it for a strong ramp when new takeaway capacity comes online. Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA was $1.4B, a record, driven by Permian acquisitions, strong producer activity, and marketing/optimization opportunities, partially offset by winter weather.
- Full-year 2026 EBITDA guidance raised to $5.7-5.9B from $5.4-5.6B, supported by strong first-half results and downstream opportunities.
- Permian volumes are currently ~250 MMcf/d higher than Q1 average despite 200-400 MMcf/d being shut-in, indicating strong underlying production growth.
- LPG export demand is robust, particularly for butane, leading to additional contracted volumes and record loadings expected in Q2.
Revenue$4.0947B+1% QoQ
EPS$2.21-12% QoQ
Gross margin31.12%Reported
Operating margin20.68%Reported
6 grounded callouts
What matters now
The highest-signal changes from the call.
Demand
Permian volumes currently 250 MMcf/d above Q1 average
Capex
Two new Delaware gas plants announced for Q1 2028
Show 3 more callouts
Supply
Producers curtailing 200-400 MMcf/d due to weak Waha prices
Demand
LPG export loadings to set record in Q2
Capex
LPG export expansion to 19 million barrels per month
Reported period
Actuals
| Metric | Reported | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.0947B | +1% QoQ |
| EPS | $2.21 | -12% QoQ |
| Gross margin | 31.12% | Reported |
| Operating margin | 20.68% | Reported |
| Free cash flow | $-0.16B | Reported |
| Capex | $0.8995B | Reported |
Forward-looking
Forward guidance
| Metric | Period | Range | Midpoint | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capex | FY2026 | $4.5B | $4.5B | Maintained |
| Revenue | FY2026 | $5.7B–$5.9B | $5.8B | Raised |
AI, capex & demand read
Management read
Confident
Management expressed strong confidence in the business, citing record volumes, higher guidance, and a positive outlook driven by Permian growth and expanding downstream opportunities.
Investment and capacity
Management maintained 2026 net growth capital guidance of approximately $4.5 billion despite announcing two new Permian gas processing plants (Roadrunner 3 and Copperhead 2), reflecting a robust organic investment program across its integrated value chain.
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Companiesreturns since call
Customers
Customers
Jen Neal
A major Permian producer is pulling forward development, which could accelerate demand for Targa's processing and downstream services.
Evidence
“I think Diamondback in particular mentioned pulling forward some Barnett development.”
External signals
Supply-chain alpha · 4returns since call
Despite 200-400 MMcf/d of Permian gas shut-in due to weak Waha prices, current volumes are ~250 MMcf/d above Q1 average, indicating significant underlying production growth and pent-up demand that will be released when egress comes online.
Evidence
“Currently, our Permian volumes are more than 250 million cubic feet per day higher than the first quarter average...we currently have between 200 and 400 million cubic feet per day of Permian gas temporarily shut in by producers on any giv…”
The Iran conflict has created a new, sustained call on butane exports, leading Targa to secure additional firm butane contracts and shift product mix to free up dock space for additional cargoes.
Evidence
“what we've seen as a result of the Iran conflict is an additional call on butane...we're working with our core portfolio of customers to move more butane across the dock”
Export contracts are seeing significant inbound interest, with Targa noting more inbound requests than ever before, leading to discussions on multi-year contracts, signaling a strong LNG/LPG export market.
Evidence
“we have more inbounds than I've certainly ever seen, just from others across the world, thinking about getting into the US LPG export market...multi-year contracts that we are in discussions on and have been actively closing.”
Targa sees a significant ramp in volumes with additional egress capacity, implying that current producer activity is stronger than what the reported volumes indicate, with shut-ins masking the true growth.
Evidence
“we're on track with our volumes...us being on track for our volumes in the first part of the year with these shut-ins, I think it just paints a really good picture for us as that activity ramps when there's sufficient egress on the gas sid…”
Methodology & coverage
Management-only analysis. All 1 validated company mentions are shown. Reported actuals and forward guidance are kept separate. Public evidence is limited to eight short attributed quotes. AI-generated analysis can be incomplete or wrong; verify important claims against the original source.