Skip to earnings analysis
← Back to feed
SW FY2026 Q1 IMPROVING

Smurfit WestRock PLC earnings call

Apr 30, 2026 · 07:30 ET Ken BowlesKieron PottsTony Smurfit
Buzzberg read

Demand has strengthened significantly across all paper grades

Smurfit WestRock reported a solid Q1 that was in line with plan despite weather impacts and tepid demand. Management highlighted a rapid and significant improvement in demand and pricing power entering Q2, with sold-out positions across most paper grades, leading to price increase announcements. Q1 adjusted EBITDA was $1.076 billion, impacted by ~$65 million in weather-related costs.

Buzzberg read Demand has strengthened significantly across all paper grades Smurfit WestRock reported a solid Q1 that was in line with plan despite weather impacts and tepid demand. Management highlighted a rapid and significant improvement in demand and pricing power entering Q2, with sold-out positions across most paper grades, leading to price increase announcements. Q1 adjusted EBITDA was $1.076 billion, impacted by ~$65 million in weather-related costs. Read full analysisCollapse analysis

Smurfit WestRock reported a solid Q1 that was in line with plan despite weather impacts and tepid demand. Management highlighted a rapid and significant improvement in demand and pricing power entering Q2, with sold-out positions across most paper grades, leading to price increase announcements. Q1 adjusted EBITDA was $1.076 billion, impacted by ~$65 million in weather-related costs.

  • Demand has strengthened dramatically across all major paper grades, resulting in sold-out positions and announced price increases in both Europe and North America.
  • Management reaffirmed FY2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $5.0-5.3 billion.
  • The company is making progress on its North American integration plan, signing over 600 new corrugated customers in Q1 and onboarding them at an accelerating pace.
Revenue $6.7003B -12% QoQ
EPS $0.33 -3% QoQ
Gross margin 16.44% reported
Op margin 3.98% reported

What changed this quarter

01
Demand

Demand has strengthened significantly across all paper grades

Management acknowledged a challenging Q1 with weather and demand issues but expressed optimism about a stronger demand environment and sold-out positions across most paper grades.

02
Guidance

Q2 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $1.1-1.2 billion

Guidance tone

03
Guidance

Full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA reaffirmed at $5-5.3 billion

Guidance tone

04
Demand

Over 600 new corrugated customers added in Q1, with stronger April

Demand has strengthened significantly across all paper grades. Management acknowledged a challenging Q1 with weather and demand issues but expressed optimism about a stronger demand environment and sold-out positions across most paper grades.

Demand & capex

Demand

Bookings & conversion

Demand has strengthened significantly across all paper grades. Management acknowledged a challenging Q1 with weather and demand issues but expressed optimism about a stronger demand environment and sold-out positions across most paper grades.

Capex

Investment and capacity

Management discussed continued investment in the system for growth and cost takeout, including new projects across North America, and completing a corrugated box plant acquisition in Ecuador. They also announced rationalization measures, including closure consultations for four smaller converting operations and one UK paper mill, all aimed at optimizing the system.

Tone · Cautiously Optimisti

Management acknowledged a challenging Q1 with weather and demand issues but expressed optimism about a stronger demand environment and sold-out positions across most paper grades.

Supply-chain alpha

A1

The European containerboard market has shifted so quickly that European paper is now unavailable until July for export to Latin America, previously available at any price, indicating a rapid tightening of global supply.

“Now, if you look for paper in Europe, you're being told, well, we can make it in July, and we can ship it, and so it can be with you in October or September, October. By the way, we haven't discussed pricing.”
Tony Smurfit
A2

Smurfit Westrock is in a sold-out position across all major paper grades (containerboard, kraftliner, SBS, CUK), a rapid change from the previous quarter, suggesting a significant tightening of supply-demand dynamics in the packaging industry.

“We have seen a very strong uptake across really all paper grades, with maybe one exception in CRB a little bit. But basically all paper grades are in effectively sold-out position right now.”
Tony Smurfit

Forward guidance

ImprovingGuidance tone
Forward guidance
MetricPeriodRangeMidpointStatus
UnitsFY2026$5B–$5.3B$5.15BMAINTAINED
UnitsFY2026 Q2$1.1B–$1.2B$1.15BGUIDED

Guidance credibility

100%historical hit rate
100%
Tony Smurfit

1 of 1 · -0.9% average bias