Guidance
← Earnings Calls
01
02
03
04 05 06
Tone
Capex
A1 A2 A3
SHW
FY2025 Q4
In line
The Sherwin-Williams Company earnings call
Buzzberg read
2026 guidance assumes soft demand, benefits from price increases
Sherwin-Williams delivered a solid Q4 2025 with earnings growth driven by cost discipline, despite a challenging demand environment. Management provided a cautious 2026 outlook, expecting a 'softer for longer' market, with growth to be driven by share gains and pricing discipline rather than market recovery. Q4 2025 results beat expectations, with adjusted EPS up 6.7% and EBITDA margin expanding 120 bps.
Buzzberg read 2026 guidance assumes soft demand, benefits from price increases Sherwin-Williams delivered a solid Q4 2025 with earnings growth driven by cost discipline, despite a challenging demand environment. Management provided a cautious 2026 outlook, expecting a 'softer for longer' market, with growth to be driven by share gains and pricing discipline rather than market recovery. Q4 2025 results beat expectations, with adjusted EPS up 6.7% and EBITDA margin expanding 120 bps. Read full analysisCollapse analysis
Sherwin-Williams delivered a solid Q4 2025 with earnings growth driven by cost discipline, despite a challenging demand environment. Management provided a cautious 2026 outlook, expecting a 'softer for longer' market, with growth to be driven by share gains and pricing discipline rather than market recovery. Q4 2025 results beat expectations, with adjusted EPS up 6.7% and EBITDA margin expanding 120 bps.
- 2026 guidance expects low-single-digit revenue growth and adjusted EPS of $11.50-$11.90, implying mid-point growth of 2.4%.
- Management anticipates a challenging demand environment to persist well into 2026, with no meaningful market recovery expected.
- Company is prioritizing volume and share gains, rather than aggressive price realization, in a 'jump ball' competitive environment.
Revenue$5.5959BReported
EPS$2.23Reported
Gross margin48.84%Reported
Operating margin13.92%Reported
6 grounded callouts
What matters now
The highest-signal changes from the call.
Pricing
Paint Stores Group implemented 7% price increase effective January 1
Demand
Residential repaint remains top growth opportunity, outperforming market
Show 3 more callouts
Market Share
New non-BPA coatings driving packaging share gains
Employee Costs
401(k) match reinstated and retroactively restored
Outlook
Expects third year of market outperformance despite weak demand
Reported period
Actuals
| Metric | Reported | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.5959B | Reported |
| EPS | $2.23 | Reported |
| Gross margin | 48.84% | Reported |
| Operating margin | 13.92% | Reported |
| Free cash flow | $0.8621B | Reported |
| Capex | $0.2304B | Reported |
Forward-looking
Forward guidance
| Metric | Period | Range | Midpoint | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | FY2026 | $11.50–$11.90 | $11.70 | Initiated |
| Gross margin | FY2026 | 0% | 0% | Initiated |
| RevenuePAINT_STORES | FY2026 | -1%–1% | 0% | Initiated |
| RevenuePAINT_STORES | FY2026 | $1B | $1B | Initiated |
| RevenueCONSUMER_BRANDS | FY2026 Q1 | 14%–16% | 15% | Initiated |
| RevenueCONSUMER_BRANDS | FY2026 | 7%–10% | 8.5% | Initiated |
| RevenuePERFORMANCE_COATINGS | FY2026 | 0%–2% | 1% | Initiated |
| Revenue | FY2026 | 2%–4% | 3% | Initiated |
AI, capex & demand read
Management read
Cautiously Confident
The tone is measured and realistic about a challenging demand environment, but confident in the company's ability to outperform the market through share gains and disciplined cost control.
Investment and capacity
Management discussed continued strategic CapEx investments, including the new global headquarters and global technology center, which opened at the end of the year. They also expect to open 80 to 100 net new stores in the U.S. and Canada in 2026, with continued investments in sales reps, territories, innovation, and digital capabilities.
all 2 named companies below
Companiesreturns since call
Supply chain
Supply chain
Heidi Petz
The 7% price increase on Jan 1 is expected to realize Low-single-digit given management's willingness to sacrifice price for volume in a 'jump ball' competitive environment. — Indicates a price war in the paint industry, with Sherwin-Williams prioritizing market share over price realization, which will pressure competitors like PPG to defend their share.
Evidence
“I would frame it more as a jump ball environment, to be honest with you. And so we're going to continue to be, as you would expect, extremely aggressive as it relates to chasing volume right now.”
Supply chain
Heidi Petz
Sherwin-Williams is aggressively pursuing new accounts in Performance Coatings Group (PCG) despite weak industrial demand, with strong wins in industrial wood and general industrial. — Demonstrates that Sherwin-Williams is taking market share from competitors like Axalta in the industrial coatings space, even in a flat market.
Evidence
“Our industrial wood and general industrial divisions had the strongest new account growth in the group last year, We expect these wins to drive low single-digit growth in both of these divisions, even as core demand remains very weak.”
External signals
Supply-chain alpha · 3returns since call
The 7% price increase on Jan 1 is expected to realize Low-single-digit given management's willingness to sacrifice price for volume in a 'jump ball' competitive environment.
Packaging coatings conversion to non-BPA technology is still in early innings in Asia and Latin America, while North America and Europe are ahead, implying a multi-year growth runway.
Evidence
“In terms of how much is left to go, I would say that in Asia and Latin, there's still quite a bit to go. North America, and as Heidi just pointed out, Europe are farther ahead on that.”
Sherwin-Williams is aggressively pursuing new accounts in Performance Coatings Group (PCG) despite weak industrial demand, with strong wins in industrial wood and general industrial.
Methodology & coverage
Management-only analysis. All 2 validated company mentions are shown. Reported actuals and forward guidance are kept separate. Public evidence is limited to eight short attributed quotes. AI-generated analysis can be incomplete or wrong; verify important claims against the original source.