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PKG FY2025 Q3 IN LINE

Packaging Corporation of America earnings call

Oct 23, 2025 · 05:00 ET Kent FluttererMark KowlzanTom Hasfurther
Buzzberg read

Greif integration on track with synergies targeted at $60 million

PCA reported in-line Q3 results including one month of the Greif acquisition. Q4 guidance EPS of $2.40 reflects seasonal headwinds and higher maintenance costs, but management is bullish on Greif integration and long-term self-generation energy projects. Key cross-company signal is limited to the Greif acquisition update. Q3 EPS ex-special items $2.73 vs guidance of $2.80 (excluding Greif impact), beat by $0.04 on favorable mix and lower freight.

Buzzberg read Greif integration on track with synergies targeted at $60 million PCA reported in-line Q3 results including one month of the Greif acquisition. Q4 guidance EPS of $2.40 reflects seasonal headwinds and higher maintenance costs, but management is bullish on Greif integration and long-term self-generation energy projects. Key cross-company signal is limited to the Greif acquisition update. Q3 EPS ex-special items $2.73 vs guidance of $2.80 (excluding Greif impact), beat by $0.04 on favorable mix and lower freight. Read full analysisCollapse analysis

PCA reported in-line Q3 results including one month of the Greif acquisition. Q4 guidance EPS of $2.40 reflects seasonal headwinds and higher maintenance costs, but management is bullish on Greif integration and long-term self-generation energy projects. Key cross-company signal is limited to the Greif acquisition update. Q3 EPS ex-special items $2.73 vs guidance of $2.80 (excluding Greif impact), beat by $0.04 on favorable mix and lower freight.

  • Greif acquisition completed Sept 2; one-month contribution impacted EPS by -$0.11 but management sees strong operational improvements and on track for $60M run-rate synergies by late 2026.
  • Q4 EPS guidance $2.40 ex-special items, below Q3 due to seasonally weaker mix, higher outage costs (29c step-up), and lower shipping days.
  • Capex guidance reduced to ~$800M from $840-870M due to timing; large energy projects (gas turbines) planned to reduce electricity costs at three mills over 2.5 years.
Revenue $2.3134B reported
EPS $2.73 reported
Gross margin 21.8% reported
Op margin 14.03% reported

What changed this quarter

01
M&A

Greif integration on track with synergies targeted at $60 million

PCA reported in-line Q3 results including one month of the Greif acquisition. Q4 guidance EPS of $2.40 reflects seasonal headwinds and higher maintenance costs, but management is bullish on Greif integration and long-term self-generation energy projects. Key cross-company…

02
Demand

Corrugated demand improved as quarter progressed, order pace up 1%

Management expressed confidence in the Greif integration, citing immediate operational improvements, strong margin performance, and bullish outlook on future opportunities.

03
Costs

Energy costs rising, driving investments in electricity independence

Greif acquisition completed Sept 2; one-month contribution impacted EPS by -$0.11 but management sees strong operational improvements and on track for $60M run-rate synergies by late 2026.

04
Demand

Beef and building materials end markets are significant drags

Corrugated demand improved as quarter progressed, order pace up 1%. Management expressed confidence in the Greif integration, citing immediate operational improvements, strong margin performance, and bullish outlook on future opportunities.

Demand & capex

Demand

Bookings & conversion

Corrugated demand improved as quarter progressed, order pace up 1%. Management expressed confidence in the Greif integration, citing immediate operational improvements, strong margin performance, and bullish outlook on future opportunities.

Capex

Investment and capacity

Management revised 2025 capital forecast down to approximately $800 million from $840-870 million due to timing, but noted significant upcoming energy projects over the next two and a half years to make three more mills electricity independent, with high returns and paybacks of about a year and a half.

Tone · Confident

Management expressed confidence in the Greif integration, citing immediate operational improvements, strong margin performance, and bullish outlook on future opportunities.

Supply-chain alpha

A1

PCA plans to invest tens of millions in gas turbine projects at three mills over two years to achieve electricity independence, targeting >50% reduction in purchased power costs.

“we've got three significant projects that we're going to introduce into early next year that will take three of our mills essentially electricity independent within the next two and a half years.”
Mark Colvin
A2

PCA will draw down elevated inventory at the acquired Greif converting plants over the next two quarters, which will temporarily mute reported production but unlock working capital.

“we have the opportunity to bring inventory down to lower levels, and we'll manage our operations to do so over the next couple of quarters.”
Tom Hasfurther
A3

PCA's two largest box end-markets—beef (cattle herds at 70-year low) and building materials (weak housing starts)—are dragging organic volume, but all other segments are healthy.

“The cattle herds are down to a 70-year low. So there's a lot of struggles going on there... The other area is the building materials... Those two segments have been a drag on us.”
Tom Hasfurther

Forward guidance

In LineGuidance tone
Forward guidance
MetricPeriodRangeMidpointStatus
CapexFY2025$0.8B$0.8BLOWERED
EPSFY2025 Q4$2.40$2.40GUIDED

Guidance credibility

2 / 2met or beat
Guidance credibility
IssuedMetricTargetGuideActualOutcome
FY2026 Q1EPSFY2026 Q2$2.33$2.35Met / beat
FY2025 Q4EPSFY2026 Q1$2.20$2.40Met / beat

Company read-throughs

+40.6%
since call
$60.84$85.57
Supply chain

PCA's integration of Greif's containerboard assets is already yielding operational improvements, suggesting upside to synergies and EBITDA contribution.

“the acquired mills produce 47,000 tons during the month. Having closed the acquisition on September 2nd, we used the initial month of ownership to our advantage.”
Mark Kowlzan