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FY2025 Q4
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Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated earnings call
Buzzberg read
Raised long-term earnings growth outlook to 6%-8%
PSEG reported FY2025 EPS of $4.05, at the high end of guidance, and initiated FY2026 guidance of $4.28-$4.40 (up 7% YoY at midpoint). The company raised its long-term EPS CAGR to 6-8% and increased its five-year regulated capex plan to $22.5-$25.5B, citing demand from data centers and PJM scarcity. Management highlighted discussions with New Jersey policymakers on new gas and nuclear procurement bills, and a potential incremental 3 GW of community solar/battery storage. FY2025 non-GAAP EPS of $4.05 was at the high end of the $4.00-$4.06 guidance range, marking the 21st consecutive year of meeting or exceeding guidance.
Buzzberg read Raised long-term earnings growth outlook to 6%-8% PSEG reported FY2025 EPS of $4.05, at the high end of guidance, and initiated FY2026 guidance of $4.28-$4.40 (up 7% YoY at midpoint). The company raised its long-term EPS CAGR to 6-8% and increased its five-year regulated capex plan to $22.5-$25.5B, citing demand from data centers and PJM scarcity. Management highlighted discussions with New Jersey policymakers on new gas and nuclear procurement bills, and a potential incremental 3 GW of community solar/battery storage. FY2025 non-GAAP EPS of $4.05 was at the high end of the $4.00-$4.06 guidance range, marking the 21st consecutive year of meeting or exceeding guidance. Read full analysisCollapse analysis
PSEG reported FY2025 EPS of $4.05, at the high end of guidance, and initiated FY2026 guidance of $4.28-$4.40 (up 7% YoY at midpoint). The company raised its long-term EPS CAGR to 6-8% and increased its five-year regulated capex plan to $22.5-$25.5B, citing demand from data centers and PJM scarcity. Management highlighted discussions with New Jersey policymakers on new gas and nuclear procurement bills, and a potential incremental 3 GW of community solar/battery storage. FY2025 non-GAAP EPS of $4.05 was at the high end of the $4.00-$4.06 guidance range, marking the 21st consecutive year of meeting or exceeding guidance.
- FY2026 guidance initiated at $4.28-$4.40, up 7% at midpoint, driven by higher regulated rate base and hedge position ~95% of expected generation output.
- Long-term EPS CAGR raised from 5-7% to 6-8% through 2030, supported by $24-28B total capex plan; no equity issuance required.
- PSE&G FERC transmission formula filing implemented Jan 1, adding $82M in annual transmission revenue.
Revenue$2.915B-10% QoQ
EPS$0.72-36% QoQ
Operating margin17.53%Reported
Free cash flow$-0.408BReported
6 grounded callouts
What matters now
The highest-signal changes from the call.
Guidance
2026 EPS guidance midpoint up 7%
Capex
Capital plan increased by $1.5B on data center load growth
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Balance Sheet
No equity issuance needed to fund capital plan
Regulatory
New Jersey pursuing new gas and nuclear generation
Hedging
Hedged 95% for 2026, largely hedged through 2027-2028
Reported period
Actuals
| Metric | Reported | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.915B | -10% QoQ |
| EPS | $0.72 | -36% QoQ |
| Operating margin | 17.53% | Reported |
| Free cash flow | $-0.408B | Reported |
| Capex | $1.129B | Reported |
| Net income | $0.315B | -49% QoQ |
Forward-looking
Forward guidance
| Metric | Period | Range | Midpoint | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capex | FY2030 | $24B–$28B | $26B | Raised |
| EPS | FY2026 | $4.28–$4.40 | $4.34 | Initiated |
| EPS | FY2030 | 6%–8% | 7% | Raised |
AI, capex & demand read
Management read
Confident
Management expressed confidence in delivering on raised guidance and growth targets, citing strong operational performance, a robust capital plan, and constructive regulatory and legislative engagement.
Investment and capacity
Management raised the five-year regulated capital investment plan to $22.5-$25.5 billion for 2026-2030, up from $21-$24 billion, driven by anticipated load growth from data centers and other new customers, plus incremental distribution reliability and resiliency investments. The total capital program is $24-$28 billion, with over 90% focused on regulated investments.
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Supply chain
Supply chain
Dan Craig
PSEG completed a fuel cycle extension at Hope Creek nuclear plant, shifting from an 18-month to a 24-month refueling cycle. — The 24-month cycle reduces annual refueling outage frequency, cutting O&M costs and increasing annual generation output for PSEG, while reducing the frequency of nuclear fuel purchases over time.
Evidence
“PSTG Nuclear also completed work during the Hope Creek refueling outage to transition the unit from an 18-month to a 24-month refueling cycle going forward, which will yield additional megawatt hours as well as O&M savings over the long”
External signals
Supply-chain alpha · 3returns since call
PSEG completed a fuel cycle extension at Hope Creek nuclear plant, shifting from an 18-month to a 24-month refueling cycle.
Evidence
“PSTG Nuclear also completed work during the Hope Creek refueling outage to transition the unit from an 18-month to a 24-month refueling cycle going forward, which will yield additional megawatt hours as well as O&M savings over the long te…”
PSEG's nuclear fleet output is about 95% hedged for 2026, but the company's long-term 6-8% CAGR assumes power prices above the nuclear PTC threshold, driven by PJM scarcity.
Evidence
“We are approximately 95% hedged for the remainder of 2026. We will also keep to our longstanding practice of stringent cost control and continuous improvement to support affordability and benefit our customers.”
New Jersey is exploring an additional 3,000 MW of community solar and battery storage via executive order, which could drive incremental regulated capital investments for PSE&G's distribution grid upgrades.
Evidence
“The supply-demand dynamic we are seeing in New Jersey has prompted executive orders to be issued to explore supply options. including the development of an additional 3,000 megawatts of community solar and battery storage.”
Methodology & coverage
Management-only analysis. All 1 validated company mentions are shown. Reported actuals and forward guidance are kept separate. Public evidence is limited to eight short attributed quotes. AI-generated analysis can be incomplete or wrong; verify important claims against the original source.