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FY2026 Q1
Improving
ONEOK, Inc. earnings call
Buzzberg read
Guidance raised on stronger volumes and market tailwinds
ONEOK reported strong Q1 2026 results, beating expectations and raising full-year guidance on a blend of higher volumes, favorable differentials, and improving market conditions. Management highlighted robust NGL demand, growing interest in LPG exports, and a positive outlook for AI/data center driven natural gas demand despite normalizing Waha-Katy differentials. Q1 2026 net income of $776M ($1.23/share) and Adjusted EBITDA of ~$2.0B, both up 12-13% YoY.
Buzzberg read Guidance raised on stronger volumes and market tailwinds ONEOK reported strong Q1 2026 results, beating expectations and raising full-year guidance on a blend of higher volumes, favorable differentials, and improving market conditions. Management highlighted robust NGL demand, growing interest in LPG exports, and a positive outlook for AI/data center driven natural gas demand despite normalizing Waha-Katy differentials. Q1 2026 net income of $776M ($1.23/share) and Adjusted EBITDA of ~$2.0B, both up 12-13% YoY. Read full analysisCollapse analysis
ONEOK reported strong Q1 2026 results, beating expectations and raising full-year guidance on a blend of higher volumes, favorable differentials, and improving market conditions. Management highlighted robust NGL demand, growing interest in LPG exports, and a positive outlook for AI/data center driven natural gas demand despite normalizing Waha-Katy differentials. Q1 2026 net income of $776M ($1.23/share) and Adjusted EBITDA of ~$2.0B, both up 12-13% YoY.
- Raised FY2026 guidance: net income midpoint to $3.5B, EPS to $5.53, adjusted EBITDA to $8.25B; capex unchanged at $2.7-3.2B.
- Bakken volumes down only 2-3% QoQ in Q1, better than typical seasonal trends.
- Management sees strong tailwinds into 2027 with significant operating leverage on existing pipelines.
Revenue$9.618B+6% QoQ
EPS$1.23-21% QoQ
Gross margin26.67%Reported
Operating margin14.85%Reported
6 grounded callouts
What matters now
The highest-signal changes from the call.
AI
Data center projects now larger, up to $700M
Demand
LPG export dock contracting accelerating
Show 3 more callouts
Demand
Producer activity leaning in with faster completions
Capex
Permian capacity expansions on track for 2026
Margins
Refined products blending upside from synergies
Reported period
Actuals
| Metric | Reported | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $9.618B | +6% QoQ |
| EPS | $1.23 | -21% QoQ |
| Gross margin | 26.67% | Reported |
| Operating margin | 14.85% | Reported |
| Free cash flow | $0.07B | Reported |
| Capex | $0.864B | Reported |
Forward-looking
Forward guidance
| Metric | Period | Range | Midpoint | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capex | FY2026 | $2.7B–$3.2B | $2.95B | Maintained |
| EPS | FY2026 | $5.28–$5.78 | $5.53 | Raised |
AI, capex & demand read
Management read
Upbeat
Management expressed confidence in volume growth, raised guidance, and highlighted strong demand tailwinds from LNG export, NGL, and data center opportunities.
Management AI read
Management highlighted advanced discussions for data center related opportunities in Oklahoma and Texas, noting a shift toward larger volumes and bigger pipeline projects with hyperscalers, which could require larger infrastructure investments.
Investment and capacity
Management kept 2026 capex guidance unchanged at $2.7-$3.2 billion, with projects on schedule and budget. They expect large capex to be completed by mid-2027, after which free cash flow increases, and noted data center projects are now larger ( $400-$700 million) and fit within an unallocated capex run-rate.
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Competitors
Competitors
Pierce Norton
Damage to Qatar's LNG facilities during the Middle East conflict will likely divert expansion equipment to rebuild, shifting incremental LNG capacity growth to US suppliers like ONEOK's customers.
Evidence
“more than likely the equipment that was ordered to do those expansions will probably go to rebuilding some of the damage that was done during these war efforts. So that means that the incremental capacity is going to really land back in”
External signals
Supply-chain alpha · 4returns since call
US LNG expansion is increasingly favored over Qatar's due to war damage, and 65% of US gas production contains recoverable NGLs, driving NGL infrastructure demand.
Evidence
“more than likely the equipment that was ordered to do those expansions will probably go to rebuilding some of the damage that was done during these war efforts. So that means that the incremental capacity is going to really land back in th…”
ONEOK is seeing accelerated interest for its LPG export dock, with refreshes increasing post-geopolitical conflict, indicating diversification toward US supply.
Evidence
“Refresh requests for capacity on our announced LPG export dock were already increasing and have accelerated more recently as customers look to diversify supply toward the U.S.”
Waha-to-Katy differentials were wider than planned in Q1, providing incremental benefit, but expected to normalize as new pipeline egress comes online in 2H 2026.
Evidence
“We expect Waha to Katy differentials to normalize as new pipeline egress comes online in the second half of the year.”
Discussions for data center projects have evolved from smaller siting to ~$400-700 million larger pipeline projects as hyperscalers demand bigger volumes.
Evidence
“They're turning out to be $400 to $700 million projects. So they'll fit right in that window that we had left open, and they're coming in at really nice returns.”
Methodology & coverage
Management-only analysis. All 1 validated company mentions are shown. Reported actuals and forward guidance are kept separate. Public evidence is limited to eight short attributed quotes. AI-generated analysis can be incomplete or wrong; verify important claims against the original source.