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OKE
FY2025 Q4
In line
ONEOK, Inc. earnings call
Buzzberg read
2026 EBITDA guidance midpoint set at $8.1 billion
ONEOK reported strong FY2025 results with 18% adjusted EBITDA growth to $8.02B, but provided cautious 2026 guidance reflecting lower commodity price assumptions and a tempered pace of producer activity. The call highlighted significant progress on synergies from the Magellan/Enlink acquisitions and detailed specific volume headwinds and tailwinds across its segments. ONEOK guided 2026 adjusted EBITDA to a midpoint of $8.1 billion, implying roughly 1% growth year-over-year, with an explicit assumption of WTI in the $55-$60 range.
Buzzberg read 2026 EBITDA guidance midpoint set at $8.1 billion ONEOK reported strong FY2025 results with 18% adjusted EBITDA growth to $8.02B, but provided cautious 2026 guidance reflecting lower commodity price assumptions and a tempered pace of producer activity. The call highlighted significant progress on synergies from the Magellan/Enlink acquisitions and detailed specific volume headwinds and tailwinds across its segments. ONEOK guided 2026 adjusted EBITDA to a midpoint of $8.1 billion, implying roughly 1% growth year-over-year, with an explicit assumption of WTI in the $55-$60 range. Read full analysisCollapse analysis
ONEOK reported strong FY2025 results with 18% adjusted EBITDA growth to $8.02B, but provided cautious 2026 guidance reflecting lower commodity price assumptions and a tempered pace of producer activity. The call highlighted significant progress on synergies from the Magellan/Enlink acquisitions and detailed specific volume headwinds and tailwinds across its segments. ONEOK guided 2026 adjusted EBITDA to a midpoint of $8.1 billion, implying roughly 1% growth year-over-year, with an explicit assumption of WTI in the $55-$60 range.
- Reported FY2025 adjusted EBITDA of $8.085 billion was slightly above the midpoint of original guidance, supported by higher location differentials (like Waha-to-Katy) despite headwinds from lower upgrade margins and Bakken volumes.
- Management expects to realize $150 million in incremental commercial and cost synergies in 2026, primarily tied to the Magellan acquisition, bringing total synergies to nearly $650 million.
- The Bakken NGL segment faces a specific headwind with a loss of ~18,000 bpd of volumes to Kinder Morgan's system in 2026, though overall production is expected to remain in low single-digit growth.
Revenue$9.065B+5% QoQ
EPS$1.55+4% QoQ
Gross margin29.44%Reported
Operating margin29.72%Reported
6 grounded callouts
What matters now
The highest-signal changes from the call.
Synergies
Magellan synergies reached nearly $500 million, beating expectations
Commercial
All 3.7 Bcf/d of Saguaro pipeline capacity contracted for 10+ years
Show 3 more callouts
Supply
Bakken has 15+ years of drilling inventory on dedicated acreage
Volumes
2026 NGL volumes flat due to Bakken contract loss and ethane rejection
Operations
January volumes 10% below expectations due to winter storm Fern
Reported period
Actuals
| Metric | Reported | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $9.065B | +5% QoQ |
| EPS | $1.55 | +4% QoQ |
| Gross margin | 29.44% | Reported |
| Operating margin | 29.72% | Reported |
| Free cash flow | $0.576B | -30% QoQ |
| Capex | $0.97B | Reported |
Forward-looking
Forward guidance
| Metric | Period | Range | Midpoint | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capex | FY2026 | $2.7B–$3.2B | $2.95B | Guided |
| Revenue | FY2026 | $8B–$8.2B | $8.1B | Guided |
AI, capex & demand read
Management read
Measured
Management acknowledged lower commodity prices and some volume headwinds but emphasized confidence in durable growth and strong execution, balancing caution with optimism.
Investment and capacity
Management expects 2026 capital expenditures between $2.7 billion and $3.2 billion, funding projects like the Texas City Export Terminal, Bighorn Processing Plant, and other high-return expansions. They expect capex to step down in coming years as current projects complete, supporting free cash flow growth.
all 2 named companies below
Companiesreturns since call
Partners
Partners
Pierce Norton
The Saguaro Connector (Texas City export terminal) JV with MPLX is progressing well, with strong collaboration noted.
Evidence
“We have multiple touch points at different levels of MPLX in here. And I'm very, very pleased with the communication that's going back and forth between the two companies.”
Competitors
Competitors
Sheridan Swords
ONEOK has identified 5,000 undrilled wells on dedicated acreage in the Bakken, representing 15+ years of inventory at current rig rates, even as crude prices dictate the pace of drilling. — The long inventory life in the Bakken signals stable long-term volumes for midstream players, but also highlights competition for market share (e.g., the 18k bpd loss to KMI).
Evidence
“We have a contract coming off this year where we're going to lose about 18,000 barrels a day going over to the Kinder Morgan system.”
External signals
Supply-chain alpha · 3returns since call
ONEOK expects the Waha-to-Katy natural gas basis differential to remain favorable through Q3 2026, until new pipeline capacity comes online, providing upside to their guidance if current spreads persist.
Evidence
“We are seeing good spreads right now above what our forecast was... we think that will go through third quarter before the next pipelines come online that will bring that spread back together.”
ONEOK forecasts a mid-year tariff increase in the low-to-mid single-digit range for its refined products segment, incorporating market-based and index-based adjustments, with FERC rate index review outcomes included.
Evidence
“We are assuming a mid-year tariff increase in the low-to-mid single-digit range, inclusive of both market-based adjustments and index-based tariffs”
ONEOK has identified 5,000 undrilled wells on dedicated acreage in the Bakken, representing 15+ years of inventory at current rig rates, even as crude prices dictate the pace of drilling.
Evidence
“In the Bakken alone, there is currently 5,000 identified wells yet to be drilled on dedicated acreage. And at current rig rates, that equates to approximately 15 plus years of inventory.”
Methodology & coverage
Management-only analysis. All 2 validated company mentions are shown. Reported actuals and forward guidance are kept separate. Public evidence is limited to eight short attributed quotes. AI-generated analysis can be incomplete or wrong; verify important claims against the original source.