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FY2025 Q4
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NiSource Inc earnings call
Buzzberg read
Amazon deal to return $1 billion to Indiana customers
NiSource reported a strong Q4 2025 with EPS of $0.51 and full-year EPS of $1.90, beating guidance. The company reaffirmed 2026 EPS guidance of $2.02-$2.07 and highlighted its large data center pipeline, including the Amazon GenCo project, as a key growth driver. NiSource's GenCo model, anchored by the Amazon data center agreement, is expected to contribute 1-2 cents to EPS in 2026, with a robust pipeline of 1-3 GW in negotiations and up to 3 GW in development.
Buzzberg read Amazon deal to return $1 billion to Indiana customers NiSource reported a strong Q4 2025 with EPS of $0.51 and full-year EPS of $1.90, beating guidance. The company reaffirmed 2026 EPS guidance of $2.02-$2.07 and highlighted its large data center pipeline, including the Amazon GenCo project, as a key growth driver. NiSource's GenCo model, anchored by the Amazon data center agreement, is expected to contribute 1-2 cents to EPS in 2026, with a robust pipeline of 1-3 GW in negotiations and up to 3 GW in development. Read full analysisCollapse analysis
NiSource reported a strong Q4 2025 with EPS of $0.51 and full-year EPS of $1.90, beating guidance. The company reaffirmed 2026 EPS guidance of $2.02-$2.07 and highlighted its large data center pipeline, including the Amazon GenCo project, as a key growth driver. NiSource's GenCo model, anchored by the Amazon data center agreement, is expected to contribute 1-2 cents to EPS in 2026, with a robust pipeline of 1-3 GW in negotiations and up to 3 GW in development.
- Management confirmed a conservative 2026 base business EPS guidance of $2.01-$2.05 and consolidated guidance of $2.02-$2.07.
- NiSource has no pending rate cases but continues to seek constructive regulatory solutions in Pennsylvania and Ohio to reduce regulatory lag.
- The company executed an agreement with Amazon expected to return $1 billion to Indiana customers over 15 years, pending IURC approval.
Revenue$1.9029BReported
EPS$0.51Reported
Gross margin58.12%Reported
Operating margin27.09%Reported
6 grounded callouts
What matters now
The highest-signal changes from the call.
Demand
Data center pipeline: 1-3 GW in advanced negotiations
Guidance
2026 EPS guidance reaffirmed at $2.02-$2.07
Show 3 more callouts
Regulation
No pending rate cases in 2026
Guidance
GenCo to contribute 1-2 cents EPS in 2026
Capital Allocation
Dividend increased 7.1% for 2026
Reported period
Actuals
| Metric | Reported | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.9029B | Reported |
| EPS | $0.51 | Reported |
| Gross margin | 58.12% | Reported |
| Operating margin | 27.09% | Reported |
| Free cash flow | $-0.1337B | Reported |
| Capex | $0.8463B | Reported |
Forward-looking
Forward guidance
| Metric | Period | Range | Midpoint | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | FY2026 | $2.02–$2.07 | $2.04 | Maintained |
AI, capex & demand read
Management read
Confident
Management repeatedly emphasized outperformance, a robust data center pipeline, and regulatory successes, projecting continued high growth and dividend increases.
Investment and capacity
Management reaffirmed a $28 billion five-year capital plan, including $21 billion of base utility investment and $6-7 billion for the Amazon GenCo project, while maintaining flexibility for up to $2 billion in upside investments and evaluating incremental opportunities like MISO transmission and AMI.
all 3 named companies below
Companiesreturns since call
Customers
Customers
Lloyd Yates
Amazon is a major customer driving the GenCo data center project in Indiana; the contract is pending regulatory approval and expected to contribute to earnings starting in 2026.
Evidence
“In 2025, we effectively executed an agreement with Amazon, and as detailed in our special contract filing with the IURC, we are anticipating $1 billion to flow back to Nipskill customers...”
Supply chain
Supply chain
Michael Oers
NiSource is investing in long-lead-time equipment like turbines and transformers to secure supply chain capacity, which may lock in pricing but also signals a capacity-constrained market. — Early equipment orders by utilities indicate tightening supply for key grid components, potentially giving pricing power to manufacturers like GE and Eaton.
Evidence
“We are facilitating that pipeline through investment in long lead time equipment, turbine reservations, breakers, transformers, et cetera, to help make sure that we can meet counterparty demand in a very timely way.”
External signals
Supply-chain alpha · 3returns since call
NiSource has identified up to 3 GW of further developing data center opportunities beyond the 1-3 GW in advanced negotiations, indicating a potentially large pipeline.
Evidence
“In addition to these advanced negotiations, we've identified up to three gigawatts of further developing opportunities, positioning NYSORES as a key energy partner for data center expansion”
NiSource is investing in long-lead-time equipment like turbines and transformers to secure supply chain capacity, which may lock in pricing but also signals a capacity-constrained market.
The DOE-mandated extension of the coal plant could alter NiSource's capital allocation and timeline, with long-term environmental constraints possibly forcing early retirement or additional investment.
Evidence
“We expect to receive maybe another order every 90 days until the federal government changes the way that, you know, that process works.”
Methodology & coverage
Management-only analysis. All 3 validated company mentions are shown. Reported actuals and forward guidance are kept separate. Public evidence is limited to eight short attributed quotes. AI-generated analysis can be incomplete or wrong; verify important claims against the original source.