MRNA FY2026 Q2 In line

Moderna, Inc. earnings call

Jul 31, 2026 · 08:00 ET David BermanJamie MockLavina Talukdar earningscall_biz

Buzzberg read

Norovirus phase 3 interim misses early success; fourth cohort to enroll

Moderna's Q2 2026 call was a steady-state update: the company beat quarterly revenue expectations, maintained its full-year guidance, and reduced cost forecasts. Major pipeline milestones remain the primary focus, with the crucial Phase 3 melanoma data for intesmorum expected in the second half of the year. Reported Q2 2026 revenue of $145M, beating the guidance range.

Buzzberg read Norovirus phase 3 interim misses early success; fourth cohort to enroll Moderna's Q2 2026 call was a steady-state update: the company beat quarterly revenue expectations, maintained its full-year guidance, and reduced cost forecasts. Major pipeline milestones remain the primary focus, with the crucial Phase 3 melanoma data for intesmorum expected in the second half of the year. Reported Q2 2026 revenue of $145M, beating the guidance range. Read full analysisCollapse analysis

Reiterated full-year 2026 revenue growth guidance of up to 10%.
Lowered 2026 operating expense and cash cost guidance by $0.2B.
Flu vaccine (mRNA-1010) received a positive unanimous VRBPAC recommendation, ahead of an August 5th PDUFA date.

Revenue$0.145BReported

EPS$-1.97+42% QoQ

Gross margin35.86%Reported

Free cash flow$-0.563B+19% QoQ

6 grounded callouts

What matters now

The highest-signal changes from the call.

Pipeline

Norovirus phase 3 interim misses early success; fourth cohort to enroll

Pipeline

INT melanoma phase 3 interim analysis expected in second half 2026

Regulatory

Flu vaccine receives unanimous VRBPAC recommendation; PDUFA August 5

Show 3 more callouts

Guidance

2026 cash cost guidance improved by $200 million to about $4 billion

Competitive Position

mRNA-1010 flu vaccine could enable late strain selection for 2027

Pipeline

RCC INT study could read out this year or next depending on events

Reported period

Actuals

Metric	Reported	Change
Revenue	$0.145B	Reported
EPS	$-1.97	+42% QoQ
Gross margin	35.86%	Reported
Free cash flow	$-0.563B	+19% QoQ
Capex	$0.037B	Reported
Net income	$-0.782B	+42% QoQ

Forward-looking

Forward guidance

Metric	Period	Range	Midpoint	Status
Capex	FY2026	$0.2B–$0.3B	$0.25B	Maintained
Operating margin	FY2026	$4.7B	$4.7B	Lowered

AI, capex & demand read

Management read

Tone

Measured Optimism

Management conveyed confidence in execution and pipeline progress while acknowledging misses (norovirus interim) and maintaining disciplined financial guidance.

Capex

Investment and capacity

Capital expenditures are still projected to be between $0.2 and $0.3 billion for 2026, with no change from prior guidance. The focus remains on operational efficiency and reducing cash costs rather than new capacity investments, though the company has established manufacturing capacity for a potential INT launch.

all 3 named companies below

Companiesreturns since call

Partners

MRK 0.0%

Partners

Moderna's flu vaccine (mRNA-1010) has the capability to update its strain selection in under two months, a potential flexibility advantage over incumbent flu vaccines in response to late-season strain mismatches. — A late strain update capability could allow Moderna to offer a better-matched vaccine in a given season, potentially shifting market share from incumbent flu vaccine makers.

Evidence

“And so, as you can imagine, Moderna and their Merck colleagues have been very active Stephen talked about manufacturing a minute ago, but they've been very active on the commercial side of the house in terms of medical affairs, marketing,”

Stéphane Bancel

Supply chain

SNY +0.3%

Supply chain

Evidence

“Our demonstrated capability in the COVID context is less than two months, and so strain selections have happened as late as early July in the history of COVID and we've been able to make a fall vaccination season work with millions of”

Stephen Hoge

GSK +0.5%

Supply chain

Moderna indicates that Europe will become a major growth driver starting in 2027, as an exclusive EU partnership from the pandemic era potentially expires, opening the door for their products. — Entry into the European market for COVID/flu vaccines would directly challenge incumbents Sanofi and GSK in a major market.

Evidence

“So we really see Europe as a very important growth driver for us.”

Stéphane Bancel

External signals

Supply-chain alpha · 3returns since call

Moderna's flu vaccine (mRNA-1010) has the capability to update its strain selection in under two months, a potential flexibility advantage over incumbent flu vaccines in response to late-season strain mismatches.

Stephen Hoge

MRK0.0%SNY+0.3%

Evidence

“Our demonstrated capability in the COVID context is less than two months, and so strain selections have happened as late as early July in the history of COVID and we've been able to make a fall vaccination season work with millions of dose…”

Moderna indicates that Europe will become a major growth driver starting in 2027, as an exclusive EU partnership from the pandemic era potentially expires, opening the door for their products.

Stéphane Bancel

SNY+0.3%GSK+0.5%

Revenue growth for 2026 is largely pre-contracted, with the biggest U.S. variable being whether vaccination rate declines meet projections; any upside from a milder decline appears to flow directly to the top line.

Jamie Mock

Evidence

“The biggest upside swing is if it is not as big a decline as we've projected, then we should have upside in the U.S.”

Methodology & coverage

Management-only analysis. All 3 validated company mentions are shown. Reported actuals and forward guidance are kept separate. Public evidence is limited to eight short attributed quotes. AI-generated analysis can be incomplete or wrong; verify important claims against the original source.