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MO FY2025 Q4 IN LINE

Altria Group, Inc. earnings call

Jan 29, 2026 · 09:00 ET Billy GiffordMac LivingstonSal Mancuso
Buzzberg read

OnPlus national launch targeted for first half 2026

Altria reported solid 2025 results with EPS growth of 4.4%, but faced continued headwinds from illicit disposable vapor and increased investments in manufacturing and new products. Management issued 2026 EPS guidance of $5.56-$5.72, reflecting a cautious but optimistic outlook weighted toward the second half. 2025 adjusted EPS grew 4.4% to $5.42, at the high end of its initial guidance range.

Buzzberg read OnPlus national launch targeted for first half 2026 Altria reported solid 2025 results with EPS growth of 4.4%, but faced continued headwinds from illicit disposable vapor and increased investments in manufacturing and new products. Management issued 2026 EPS guidance of $5.56-$5.72, reflecting a cautious but optimistic outlook weighted toward the second half. 2025 adjusted EPS grew 4.4% to $5.42, at the high end of its initial guidance range. Read full analysisCollapse analysis

Altria reported solid 2025 results with EPS growth of 4.4%, but faced continued headwinds from illicit disposable vapor and increased investments in manufacturing and new products. Management issued 2026 EPS guidance of $5.56-$5.72, reflecting a cautious but optimistic outlook weighted toward the second half. 2025 adjusted EPS grew 4.4% to $5.42, at the high end of its initial guidance range.

  • 2026 EPS guidance of $5.56-$5.72 (2.5%-5.5% growth) is back-half weighted due to investments in import/export capabilities.
  • Smoke-free products now represent more than 50% of the total U.S. nicotine space, up 5 points year-over-year.
  • Illicit disposable vapor growth is moderating (user growth ~10% vs. 40%+ in 2024), but enforcement is still gradual.
Revenue $5.079B reported
EPS $1.30 reported
Gross margin 71.49% reported
Free cash flow $3.179B reported

What changed this quarter

01
Smoke-free

OnPlus national launch targeted for first half 2026

Altria reported solid 2025 results with EPS growth of 4.4%, but faced continued headwinds from illicit disposable vapor and increased investments in manufacturing and new products. Management issued 2026 EPS guidance of $5.56-$5.72, reflecting a cautious but optimistic outlook…

02
Regulation

Illicit disposable vapor growth is starting to moderate

2025 adjusted EPS grew 4.4% to $5.42, at the high end of its initial guidance range.

03
Demand

Cross-category cigarette decline attribution trimmed to 2-3%

Management was cautiously optimistic, expressing confidence in OnPlus and the long-term strategy while repeatedly emphasizing that illicit e-vapor enforcement and regulatory progress will be gradual.

04
Guidance

2026 earnings growth expected weighted to second half

Guidance tone

Demand & capex

Demand

Bookings & conversion

Cross-category cigarette decline attribution trimmed to 2-3%. Management was cautiously optimistic, expressing confidence in OnPlus and the long-term strategy while repeatedly emphasizing that illicit e-vapor enforcement and regulatory progress will be gradual.

Capex

Investment and capacity

Management confirmed elevated 2026 capex, primarily to fund import-export manufacturing capabilities and duty drawback participation. Investments precede revenue and also support smoke-free product manufacturing, with payback on import-export capex described as strong and less than a year.

Tone · Measured

Management was cautiously optimistic, expressing confidence in OnPlus and the long-term strategy while repeatedly emphasizing that illicit e-vapor enforcement and regulatory progress will be gradual.

Supply-chain alpha

A1

Altria estimates that cross-category impacts from illicit flavored disposable vapor products contributed only 2-3% to cigarette industry declines over the past 12 months, down from its prior 3-4% estimate, meaning the drag from vapor on cigarette volumes is less than previously thought.

“We now estimate that cross-category impacts, primarily driven by illicit flavored disposable evapor, contributed approximately 2% to 3%, to the cigarette industry decline over the past 12 months versus our prior estimate of 3% to 4%.”
Sal Mancuso
A2

Growth in the number of disposable vapor users slowed to roughly 10% in 2025 from over 40% in 2024, indicating that enforcement efforts and tariffs on Chinese goods are starting to bite into the illicit market's expansion.

“Growth in the number of disposable vapors also slowed, rising approximately 10% in 2025 versus over 40% in 2024.”
Billy Gifford
A3

Altria's strategic investments in its U.S. manufacturing facility for import-export capabilities (duty drawback) are also positioning it to potentially produce for international markets, a long-term strategic option.

“Not only are we able to make those investments and afford ourselves the opportunity of the duty drawback, but it also sets the manufacturing center that we have here in Richmond up to be available to produce for any market internationally.”
Billy Gifford

Forward guidance

In LineGuidance tone
Forward guidance
MetricPeriodRangeMidpointStatus
EPSFY2026$5.56–$5.72$5.64GUIDED

Company read-throughs

KTC
Private company
Partners

Altria's collaboration with KT&G expands into international modern oral and U.S. non-nicotine markets, with KT&G providing manufacturing and product capabilities that strengthen Altria's pipeline and market reach.

“We entered into a strategic collaboration with KT&G to advance international modern oral, U.S. non-nicotine growth, and traditional tobacco operating efficiencies.”
Billy Gifford