Mosaic's Q2 2026 call focused on managing a severe industry crisis driven by the sulfur supply disruption (Strait of Hormuz, Kazakhstan blockade). Management detailed curtailments in phosphate production, a strategic advantage in securing below-spot sulfur, and a robust balance sheet to weather the storm. The call underscored a massive potential demand destruction and a significant pent-up demand scenario, alongside clear near-term cost headwinds for Q3. Global phosphate production is expected to fall short of last year by up to 30 million tons due to the sulfur crisis, creating a significant supply-demand imbalance.
Mosaic's Q2 2026 call focused on managing a severe industry crisis driven by the sulfur supply disruption (Strait of Hormuz, Kazakhstan blockade). Management detailed curtailments in phosphate production, a strategic advantage in securing below-spot sulfur, and a robust balance sheet to weather the storm. The call underscored a massive potential demand destruction and a significant pent-up demand scenario, alongside clear near-term cost headwinds for Q3. Global phosphate production is expected to fall short of last year by up to 30 million tons due to the sulfur crisis, creating a significant supply-demand imbalance.
Mosaic's Q2 2026 call focused on managing a severe industry crisis driven by the sulfur supply disruption (Strait of Hormuz, Kazakhstan blockade). Management detailed curtailments in phosphate production, a strategic advantage in securing below-spot sulfur, and a robust balance…
Fertilizer demand is weak due to affordability issues, but management sees early signs of improvement as crop prices rise, with Brazil shipments picking up. In potash, the summer fill program was fully subscribed and demand remains constructive. Phosphate application rates in…
Mosaic secured Q3 US sulfur supply at a price 'considerably below' the spot market, highlighting a strategic cost advantage over competitors.
The company has curtailed phosphate production in the US and Brazil, with Louisiana operations entirely offline and other facilities running at reduced rates.
Fertilizer demand is weak due to affordability issues, but management sees early signs of improvement as crop prices rise, with Brazil shipments picking up. In potash, the summer fill program was fully subscribed and demand remains constructive. Phosphate application rates in North America are expected to be down around 20% this year versus last, with significant soil phosphorus depletion building
Management is reducing capital expenditure expectations for the year to $1.2 billion, down from $1.25 billion, and reallocating capital away from non-core assets toward growth areas like Biosciences and rare earth elements. They are deferring turnaround capital at idle plants but maintaining spending on asset structural health.
Management emphasizes weathering a difficult market, curtailing production, managing costs, and preserving the balance sheet, while expressing confidence in eventual recovery.
Limits phosphate production and raises input costs, pressuring margins until supply normalizes.
“The ongoing Strait of Hormuz closure and the more recent Kazakhstan blockade continue to impact the global flow of sulfur, and spot prices remain unsustainably high.”
“if you compare with the normal typical phosphate application in North America, we're talking about over 30% phosphate down this year in 27.”
“In fact, our long-standing relationships with Gulf Coast refiners and other global suppliers give us reliable access to sulfur. We were recently able to negotiate third-quarter US sulfur supply at a price that is considerably below the spo…”
“The sulfur situation is more than just an inconvenience for our industry. We believe global phosphate production will fall well short of last year by up to 30 million tons.”
“You're spot on with freight rates, particularly on the export side. So Campotex is definitely seeing... The other thing is in the mix. There's more export in Q3 than what we have historically seen... that is at a lower net back and then be…”
“We are running Faustina's ammonia plant full, and we're using that within the Florida network. So again, it becomes what a product mix issue is...”
| Metric | Period | Range | Midpoint | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capex | FY2026 | $1.2B | $1.2B | LOWERED |
| UnitsPHOSPHATE | FY2026 Q3 | $1.1–$1.4 | $1.25 | GUIDED |
| UnitsPHOSPHATE | FY2026 Q3 | $700–$710 | $705 | GUIDED |
| UnitsPHOSPHATE | FY2026 Q3 | $610–$620 | $615 | GUIDED |
| UnitsPHOSPHATE | FY2026 Q3 | $820–$840 | $830 | GUIDED |
Higher freight rates are eroding the netbacks for Canadian potash exports, contributing to a softer Q3 price outlook for the potash segment.