Mosaic reported a Q4 that was weaker than expected due to a sharp fall in US phosphate demand. Management guided to a difficult first half of 2026 due to high sulfur costs, but expects a demand recovery and working capital release to drive progressively improving cash flow. Management expects roughly a $250 million EBITDA headwind in Q1-26 due to high sulfur costs, which will compress phosphate margins.
Mosaic reported a Q4 that was weaker than expected due to a sharp fall in US phosphate demand. Management guided to a difficult first half of 2026 due to high sulfur costs, but expects a demand recovery and working capital release to drive progressively improving cash flow. Management expects roughly a $250 million EBITDA headwind in Q1-26 due to high sulfur costs, which will compress phosphate margins.
Management expects 2026 CapEx to be around $1.5 billion, higher than 2025, due to gyp stack, clay settling area, and tailings dam expansions in Florida and Brazil. They expect CapEx to trend down to approximately $1 billion by 2030, with ARO and environmental reserve spending…
Reported gross margin was 14.17%, reinforcing the quarter's better-than-guided profitability.
Mosaic idled its lowest-margin operations in Brazil (Araxá and Fospar) indefinitely in response to the sulfur cost spike.
The company is guiding to 2026 capex of ~$1.5 billion, higher than 2025, due to lumpy environmental projects.
Phosphate demand in US emerging as spring approaches. Management acknowledges a challenging 2025 and near-term headwinds from sulfur costs, but expresses confidence in improved production, cost savings, and strong long-term market fundamentals.
Management expects 2026 CapEx to be around $1.5 billion, higher than 2025, due to gyp stack, clay settling area, and tailings dam expansions in Florida and Brazil. They expect CapEx to trend down to approximately $1 billion by 2030, with ARO and environmental reserve spending declining to about $200 million.
Management acknowledges a challenging 2025 and near-term headwinds from sulfur costs, but expresses confidence in improved production, cost savings, and strong long-term market fundamentals.
“We have idled Ayrshire and Fosbar in Brazil, our lowest margin operations until further notice.”
“Every $10 increase in sulfur prices adds approximately $10 million of quarterly expense. Compared with the prior year first quarter, we thus expect a roughly 250 million headwind to Q1-26 EBITDA.”
“We exited 2025 with about 240,000 tons of excess inventory in phosphates versus the prior year. At current inventory values, this represents roughly $140 million of potential working capital release over the next few quarters from demand r…”
“In fact, today, International market price for DAP, net back is actually at a higher premium than the NOLA price”
| Metric | Period | Range | Midpoint | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capex | FY2026 | $1.5B | $1.5B | GUIDED |