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KEY FY2025 Q4 IMPROVING

KeyCorp earnings call

Jan 20, 2026 · 03:00 ET Brian MonneyChris GormanClark Kayat
Buzzberg read

Plans to accelerate buybacks, targeting at least $1.2B in 2026

KeyCorp reported Q4 2025 EPS of $0.43, meeting or exceeding all financial targets. Management guided for 7% revenue growth in 2026, driven by net interest income tailwinds and fee business momentum, with expenses growing only 3-4%. The bank plans aggressive share buybacks ($1.2B+ in 2026) and announced board additions. Q4 2025 EPS $0.43; revenue up 12% YoY on adjusted basis; NIM rose to 2.82%.

Buzzberg read Plans to accelerate buybacks, targeting at least $1.2B in 2026 KeyCorp reported Q4 2025 EPS of $0.43, meeting or exceeding all financial targets. Management guided for 7% revenue growth in 2026, driven by net interest income tailwinds and fee business momentum, with expenses growing only 3-4%. The bank plans aggressive share buybacks ($1.2B+ in 2026) and announced board additions. Q4 2025 EPS $0.43; revenue up 12% YoY on adjusted basis; NIM rose to 2.82%. Read full analysisCollapse analysis

KeyCorp reported Q4 2025 EPS of $0.43, meeting or exceeding all financial targets. Management guided for 7% revenue growth in 2026, driven by net interest income tailwinds and fee business momentum, with expenses growing only 3-4%. The bank plans aggressive share buybacks ($1.2B+ in 2026) and announced board additions. Q4 2025 EPS $0.43; revenue up 12% YoY on adjusted basis; NIM rose to 2.82%.

  • 2026 guidance: total revenue up ~7%, net interest income up 8-10%, non-interest income up 3-4% (5-6% adjusted for business decisions).
  • Expense growth guided to 3-4%, implying positive operating leverage of 300-400 bps.
  • Capital return: at least $300M buyback in Q1 2026, at least $1.2B for full year; CET1 target 9.5-10% by end-2026.
Revenue $2.86B +1% QoQ
EPS $0.41 +0% QoQ
Gross margin 66.05% reported
Op margin 22.66% reported

What changed this quarter

01
Buybacks

Plans to accelerate buybacks, targeting at least $1.2B in 2026

KeyCorp reported Q4 2025 EPS of $0.43, meeting or exceeding all financial targets. Management guided for 7% revenue growth in 2026, driven by net interest income tailwinds and fee business momentum, with expenses growing only 3-4%. The bank plans aggressive share buybacks…

02
Guidance

Expects NII to benefit from $17B in asset repricing

Guidance · revenue to 7%

03
Investment Banking

Investment banking pipeline at historically elevated levels

2026 guidance: total revenue up ~7%, net interest income up 8-10%, non-interest income up 3-4% (5-6% adjusted for business decisions).

04
Guidance

Guides to 15%+ ROTCE by end of 2027

Guidance · revenue to 7%

AI, capex & demand read

AI

Platform & monetization

Management discussed investing in AI and technology, noting they have deployed it in areas like call centers and see opportunities to apply it more broadly, such as loan underwriting and processing, which could save money and improve client experience.

Demand

Bookings & conversion

Management expresses strong confidence in revenue growth outpacing expenses, supported by net interest income tailwinds, fee business momentum, and capital return plans.

Capex

Investment and capacity

Management increased technology spending to $1 billion in 2026, up from $900 million last year, focusing on customer-facing capabilities and AI implementation. They also highlighted ongoing investments in talent, adding nearly 10% to frontline banker staff.

Tone · Confident

Management expressed strong confidence in continued growth, citing record revenue, positive momentum, and a clear path to higher returns.

Forward guidance

ImprovingGuidance · revenue to 7%
Forward guidance
MetricPeriodRangeMidpointStatus
RevenueFY20267%7%GUIDED
RevenueINVESTMENT_BANKINGFY20265%5%GUIDED

Company read-throughs

+10.1%
since call
$944.00$1,039.44
Supply chain

KeyCorp CEO references a prior discussion at Goldman Sachs, indicating engagement with the investment bank but no material business relationship.

“I think I was unambiguous about our capital priorities at Goldman.”
Chris Gorman
-1.2%
since call
$1,140.10$1,126.15
Supply chain

KeyCorp nominates a former BlackRock executive to its board, adding expertise in capital allocation and public markets.

“Tony DiSperito most recently served as global chief investment officer for fundamental equities at BlackRock.”
Chris Gorman
-11.0%
since call
$147.45$131.26
Supply chain

Dollar General's CEO becomes lead independent director of KeyCorp, indicating a governance change.

“Todd Vasos, who currently serves as the CEO of Dollar General.”
Chris Gorman