Supply
← Earnings Calls
01
02
03
04 05 06
Tone
AI
Capex
A1 A2 A3 A4 A5 A6
INTC
FY2025 Q4
In line
Intel Corporation earnings call
Buzzberg read
18A yield improving 7-8% monthly, but not yet industry-leading
Intel reported a solid Q4 but faces acute supply constraints heading into Q1 2026, guiding below seasonal. Management emphasized yield improvements, capacity prioritization to servers, and strong AI-driven CPU demand. External foundry progress on 18A/14A is gradual, with customer decisions expected in H2 2026. Q4 revenue $13.7B, non-GAAP GM 37.9%, EPS $0.15 – all above guidance.
Buzzberg read 18A yield improving 7-8% monthly, but not yet industry-leading Intel reported a solid Q4 but faces acute supply constraints heading into Q1 2026, guiding below seasonal. Management emphasized yield improvements, capacity prioritization to servers, and strong AI-driven CPU demand. External foundry progress on 18A/14A is gradual, with customer decisions expected in H2 2026. Q4 revenue $13.7B, non-GAAP GM 37.9%, EPS $0.15 – all above guidance. Read full analysisCollapse analysis
Intel reported a solid Q4 but faces acute supply constraints heading into Q1 2026, guiding below seasonal. Management emphasized yield improvements, capacity prioritization to servers, and strong AI-driven CPU demand. External foundry progress on 18A/14A is gradual, with customer decisions expected in H2 2026. Q4 revenue $13.7B, non-GAAP GM 37.9%, EPS $0.15 – all above guidance.
- Q1 FY2026 guidance: revenue $11.7-12.7B, GM ~34.5%, break-even EPS, reflecting worst supply tightness.
- Supply constraints are industry-wide for DRAM/NAND/substrates, limiting Intel's ability to fulfill PC and server demand.
- Intel achieved 7-8% monthly yield improvement on 18A; tool spending (not fab space) is ramping to boost capacity.
Revenue$13.674B+0% QoQ
EPS$0.15-35% QoQ
Gross margin36.15%Reported
Operating margin4.02%Reported
6 grounded callouts
What matters now
The highest-signal changes from the call.
Foundry
External foundry 14A customer decisions expected H2 2026
Foundry
Advanced packaging revenue could exceed $1B per customer
Show 3 more callouts
Supply
Supply constraints to ease from Q2 2026, still below demand
Demand
Strong server demand, but Q1 revenue sub-seasonal due to supply
Capex
CapEx flat to down slightly, but tool spending up
Reported period
Actuals
| Metric | Reported | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $13.674B | +0% QoQ |
| EPS | $0.15 | -35% QoQ |
| Gross margin | 36.15% | Reported |
| Operating margin | 4.02% | Reported |
| Free cash flow | $0.8B | Reported |
| Capex | $3.488B | Reported |
Forward-looking
Forward guidance
| Metric | Period | Range | Midpoint | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | FY2026 Q1 | $0.00 | $0.00 | Guided |
| Gross margin | FY2026 Q1 | 34.5% | 34.5% | Guided |
| Operating margin | FY2026 | $16B | $16B | Guided |
| Revenue | FY2026 Q1 | $11.7B–$12.7B | $12.2B | Guided |
AI, capex & demand read
Management read
Measuredly Optimisti
Management expressed confidence in strategic direction and demand tailwinds, while acknowledging near-term supply constraints and execution challenges.
Management AI read
Management emphasized AI-driven demand across all compute segments, positioning Intel's heterogeneous silicon (CPU, GPU, ASIC, etc.) and advanced packaging as key differentiators. They see AI expanding the role of CPUs in data centers and client devices, with hybrid AI driving client refresh. They are focusing on emerging AI workloads like reasoning and agentic AI for future accelerators.
Investment and capacity
Capex for 2026 is planned flat to down slightly versus prior year, with a shift from space to tool spending to address supply constraints. They are aggressively adding tools for Intel 7, Intel 3, and 18A, but are holding back 14A capacity investment until customer commitments are secured, expected in late 2026 or 2027. The goal is to improve supply through yield and throughput gains first.
all 12 named companies below
Companiesreturns since call
Partners
Partners
Lipu Tan
Intel is co-developing a custom Xeon with NVIDIA's NVLink, indicating deepening collaboration in AI infrastructure despite competition.
Evidence
“We also continue to work closely with NVIDIA to build a custom Xeon fully integrated with their NVLink technology to bring best-in-class x86 performance to AI host nodes.”
Partners
David Zinsner
SoftBank's investment adds to Intel's cash war chest, likely with advisory ties but no operational control.
Evidence
“investments by the SoftBank Group and NVIDIA.”
Investees
Investees
David Zinsner
Intel reduced its stake in Mobileye to raise cash, signaling ongoing deconsolidation of non-core assets.
Evidence
“We exit 2025 with $37.4 billion of cash and short-term investments bolstered by further monetization of Mobileye...”
Supply chain
ALTR
Supply chain
David Zinsner
Intel views Altera's spin-off positively, but Altera's success could eventually compete with Intel's programmable logic efforts.
Evidence
“I'm pleased with the early momentum at Altera as an independent company with a new leadership team.”
Supply chain
Lipu Tan
Lipu Tan's background at Cadence informs Intel's ASIC strategy, but no direct current business relationship mentioned.
Evidence
“including leveraging my own experience at cadent design supporting and growing this market”
Supply chain
David Zinsner
Industry-wide DRAM/NAND and substrate shortages are pressuring client PC component availability and could limit Intel's revenue despite strong CPU demand. — Intel CPUs may sit idle if customers cannot source memory, creating a secondary bottleneck that caps Intel's upside.
Evidence
“industry-wide supply for key components like DRAM, NAND, and substrates has come under increasing pressure due to intense demand to support the rapid expansion of AI infrastructure.”
Supply chain
Lipu Tan
Intel is achieving 7-8% monthly yield improvement on 18A and is aggressively adding tools, not cleanroom space, to boost supply without major CapEx. — Yield-driven supply addition has high ROI and could quickly relieve constraints, benefiting equipment suppliers.
Evidence
“on the year improvement rate we see, you know, 7%, 8% year improvement per month.”
Supply chain
Intel's custom ASIC business reached a $1B annual run rate and is targeting a $100B TAM, driven by AI networking and cloud workloads. — Intel is emerging as a serious ASIC competitor to Broadcom and Marvell, especially when combined with internal Xeon IP and packaging.
David Zinsner
Supply chain
Intel is prioritizing internal wafer supply to data center over client, and using more externally sourced wafers for client, implying market share shifts in PC CPUs. — Intel's PC market share may temporarily erode as it allocates scarce internal capacity to higher-margin servers, benefiting AMD and TSMC-linked client chips.
David ZinsnerExternal signals
Supply-chain alpha · 6returns since call
Intel's inventory of finished goods dropped to ~40% of peak, causing hand-to-mouth supply management in Q1.
Industry-wide DRAM/NAND and substrate shortages are pressuring client PC component availability and could limit Intel's revenue despite strong CPU demand.
Intel is achieving 7-8% monthly yield improvement on 18A and is aggressively adding tools, not cleanroom space, to boost supply without major CapEx.
Customers are prepaying for Intel's advanced packaging (EMIB-T) due to severe capacity shortages, signaling high pricing power and commitment.
Intel's custom ASIC business reached a $1B annual run rate and is targeting a $100B TAM, driven by AI networking and cloud workloads.
Intel is prioritizing internal wafer supply to data center over client, and using more externally sourced wafers for client, implying market share shifts in PC CPUs.
Methodology & coverage
Management-only analysis. All 12 validated company mentions are shown. Reported actuals and forward guidance are kept separate. Public evidence is limited to eight short attributed quotes. AI-generated analysis can be incomplete or wrong; verify important claims against the original source.