Demand
← Earnings Calls
01
02
03
04 05 06
Tone
AI
Capex
A1 A2 A3
HWM
FY2025 Q4
Improving
Howmet Aerospace Inc. earnings call
Buzzberg read
Gas turbine business expected to double in three to five years
Howmet Aerospace reported a strong Q4 2025 and provided a robust outlook for 2026, with revenue expected to grow about 11% to $9.1B and free cash flow of $1.6B. The company is investing heavily in gas turbine capacity to meet what it sees as a doubling in demand over the next 3-5 years driven by data centers. Q4 2025 revenue was $2.17B (+15% YoY), EBITDA $653M (+29%), EPS $1.05 (+42%).
Buzzberg read Gas turbine business expected to double in three to five years Howmet Aerospace reported a strong Q4 2025 and provided a robust outlook for 2026, with revenue expected to grow about 11% to $9.1B and free cash flow of $1.6B. The company is investing heavily in gas turbine capacity to meet what it sees as a doubling in demand over the next 3-5 years driven by data centers. Q4 2025 revenue was $2.17B (+15% YoY), EBITDA $653M (+29%), EPS $1.05 (+42%). Read full analysisCollapse analysis
Howmet Aerospace reported a strong Q4 2025 and provided a robust outlook for 2026, with revenue expected to grow about 11% to $9.1B and free cash flow of $1.6B. The company is investing heavily in gas turbine capacity to meet what it sees as a doubling in demand over the next 3-5 years driven by data centers. Q4 2025 revenue was $2.17B (+15% YoY), EBITDA $653M (+29%), EPS $1.05 (+42%).
- 2026 guidance: Revenue $9.1B ± $100M, EBITDA $2.76B ± $50M, EPS $4.45, FCF $1.6B.
- Gas turbine business expected to double from ~$1B to $2B over 3-5 years.
- Engine spares demand for F-35 exceeded OE demand, signaling strong aftermarket.
ENGINE Revenue$1.16BReported
ENGINEERED_STRUCTURES Revenue$0.287BReported
FASTENERS Revenue$0.454BReported
FORGED_WHEELS Revenue$0.27BReported
6 grounded callouts
What matters now
The highest-signal changes from the call.
Capex
2026 CapEx midpoint $470M, could rise; more in 2027
Demand
Commercial aerospace backlog is extraordinary, supports growth
Show 3 more callouts
Demand
Spares growth accelerated to 33% in 2025, now 21% of revenue
Buybacks
Share buybacks continue robustly; $150M in early 2026
Guidance
2026 EBITDA margin guided to 30.3%, slightly below Q4 exit rate
Reported period
Actuals
| Metric | Reported | Change |
|---|---|---|
| ENGINE Revenue | $1.16B | Reported |
| ENGINEERED_STRUCTURES Revenue | $0.287B | Reported |
| FASTENERS Revenue | $0.454B | Reported |
| FORGED_WHEELS Revenue | $0.27B | Reported |
| Revenue | $2.168B | Reported |
| EPS | $1.05 | Reported |
Forward-looking
Forward guidance
| Metric | Period | Range | Midpoint | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capex | FY2026 | $0.45B–$0.49B | $0.47B | Initiated |
| EPS | FY2026 | $4.44–$4.46 | $4.45 | Initiated |
| EPS | FY2026 Q1 | $1.09–$1.11 | $1.10 | Initiated |
| Free cash flow | FY2026 | $1.55B–$1.65B | $1.6B | Initiated |
| Revenue | FY2026 | $9B–$9.2B | $9.1B | Initiated |
| Revenue | FY2026 Q1 | $2.225B–$2.245B | $2.235B | Initiated |
AI, capex & demand read
Management read
Bullish
Management expressed strong confidence in growth across commercial aerospace, defense, and especially gas turbines, while also being proactive in capital deployment and M&A.
Management AI read
Management discussed AI indirectly as a driver of data center electricity demand, which is fueling growth in the gas turbine business. They noted that 'the demand for electricity generation, especially from natural gas for data centers, is extremely high' and this is a key growth driver.
Investment and capacity
Management is significantly increasing capital expenditure, with 2025 record CapEx of $453 million and 2026 guided to approximately $470 million (possibly higher). This investment is primarily for expanding capacity in engines (commercial aerospace and gas turbines), including building out five new manufacturing plants and a recently purchased additional facility for gas turbines.
all 9 named companies below
Companiesreturns since call
Customers
Customers
John Plant
Howmet supplies turbine blades to Siemens Energy; demand is driven by data center power needs.
Evidence
“covering our key customers at GE Venova, Seams Power, Mitsubishi Heavy, Ansaldo, Solar and Baker Hughes”
Supply chain
Supply chain
John Plant
Howmet's gas turbine business is expected to double from ~$1B to $2B in revenue over the next 3-5 years, driven by data center power demand, and they are expending significant capex on this. — This is a major multi-year growth signal for the gas turbine supply chain, indicating robust demand for power generation equipment for data centers which likely benefits those OEMs and related infrastructure providers.
Evidence
“we expect that our base business of approximately $1 billion should double in revenue to $2 billion over the next three to five years.”
Supply chain
John Plant
Engine spares demand for the F-35 has exceeded OE demand in value for 2025, indicating a large and growing installed base driving aftermarket revenue. — This signals strong utilization, and potentially durability/maintenance issues, on the F-35 fleet, which could have positive implications for the entire defense supply chain and aftermarket providers.
Evidence
“for our engine product segments in 2025, The F-35's spares demand exceeded the OE demand for the aggregate value of parts provided.”
External signals
Supply-chain alpha · 3returns since call
Howmet's gas turbine business is expected to double from ~$1B to $2B in revenue over the next 3-5 years, driven by data center power demand, and they are expending significant capex on this.
Engine spares demand for the F-35 has exceeded OE demand in value for 2025, indicating a large and growing installed base driving aftermarket revenue.
Management assumes Boeing 737 production at 40/month (42 daily average) and 787 at 7/month rising to 8, while Airbus A320 is 60/month and A350 at 6/month.
Evidence
“For Boeing, the 737 assumption is 40 aircraft per month based on a rate of 42 as a daily average... For Oebus, the A320 is assumed to be 60 a month, while the A350 is at 6 per month.”
Methodology & coverage
Management-only analysis. All 9 validated company mentions are shown. Reported actuals and forward guidance are kept separate. Public evidence is limited to eight short attributed quotes. AI-generated analysis can be incomplete or wrong; verify important claims against the original source.