System-wide RevPAR growth raised to 2%-3% for 2026
Hilton reported a strong Q1 with RevPAR growth of 3.6%, exceeding guidance. Management raised full-year EBITDA and EPS guidance, citing a strengthening US economy ('C-shaped') and broad-based demand, but tempered growth outlook due to the Middle East conflict, which is expected to have a significant impact in Q2. The company also highlighted its AI initiatives and record pipeline. Q1 system-wide RevPAR grew 3.6% YoY, led by group (+4.3%) and leisure, with US RevPAR up 3.4%.
Buzzberg readSystem-wide RevPAR growth raised to 2%-3% for 2026Hilton reported a strong Q1 with RevPAR growth of 3.6%, exceeding guidance. Management raised full-year EBITDA and EPS guidance, citing a strengthening US economy ('C-shaped') and broad-based demand, but tempered growth outlook due to the Middle East conflict, which is expected to have a significant impact in Q2. The company also highlighted its AI initiatives and record pipeline. Q1 system-wide RevPAR grew 3.6% YoY, led by group (+4.3%) and leisure, with US RevPAR up 3.4%.Read full analysisCollapse analysis
Hilton reported a strong Q1 with RevPAR growth of 3.6%, exceeding guidance. Management raised full-year EBITDA and EPS guidance, citing a strengthening US economy ('C-shaped') and broad-based demand, but tempered growth outlook due to the Middle East conflict, which is expected to have a significant impact in Q2. The company also highlighted its AI initiatives and record pipeline. Q1 system-wide RevPAR grew 3.6% YoY, led by group (+4.3%) and leisure, with US RevPAR up 3.4%.
FY2026 guidance raised: EBITDA to $4.02-4.06B (from $4.0-4.06B) and EPS to $8.79-8.91, including ~$100M Middle East drag.
US demand is broadening across chain scales, with management citing a 'C-shaped economy' and citing recovery in non-residential fixed investment.
Middle East RevPAR expected down mid-teens for the year, with Q2 impact of ~1.5 points on system-wide.
Revenue$2.937B
-5% QoQ
EPS$2.01
-3% QoQ
Gross margin40.25%
reported
Op margin23.08%
reported
What changed this quarter
01
Guidance
System-wide RevPAR growth raised to 2%-3% for 2026
Guidance · revenue to $4.04B
02
Demand
Group demand leads with strong corporate lead volumes
Management expressed strong confidence in demand trends, reiterated growth prospects, and described the environment as improving, while acknowledging Middle East headwinds.
03
Supply
Net unit growth expected 6%-7% despite Middle East uncertainty
FY2026 guidance raised: EBITDA to $4.02-4.06B (from $4.0-4.06B) and EPS to $8.79-8.91, including ~$100M Middle East drag.
04
Supply
Record pipeline of 527,000 rooms
US demand is broadening across chain scales, with management citing a 'C-shaped economy' and citing recovery in non-residential fixed investment.
AI, capex & demand read
AI
Platform & monetization
Management is leveraging AI across operations, distribution, and guest experience, including partnerships with Google, ChatGPT, and Anthropic, and launching the Hilton AI Planner to drive direct bookings. They view AI as a tool to enhance efficiency, direct customer relationships, and competitive positioning, with a modern tech stack enabling agility.
Demand
Bookings & conversion
Group demand leads with strong corporate lead volumes. Management expressed strong confidence in demand trends, reiterated growth prospects, and described the environment as improving, while acknowledging Middle East headwinds.
Tone · Upbeat
Management expressed strong confidence in demand trends, reiterated growth prospects, and described the environment as improving, while acknowledging Middle East headwinds.
Supply-chain alpha
A1
Middle East RevPAR is expected to decline by 50% in Q2, creating a ~1.5 percentage point drag on system-wide RevPAR that tempers otherwise stronger US demand growth.
“it could be down 50% or something like that... That could be one and a half points on system-wide.”
Hilton expects construction starts to be up 20%+ for the year, which is a leading indicator for future hotel supply growth, suggesting developers are bullish on the lodging cycle.
“Globally, we now expect new development construction starts to be up over 20% for the year”
The C-shaped economy convergence (growth moving downstream from luxury to midscale) is being driven by non-residential fixed investment, which historically has a 95%+ correlation with hotel demand growth.
“the highest correlation, 95% plus, over a very long span of time. The correlation in demand growth for hotel rooms has been growth in NRFI, non-residential fixed investment.”
… support sustained net unit growth of between 6% to 7% for the full year, even with the current geopolitical uncertainty. Innovation across our entire business is a core competency, and when deploying new technology, we're focused on broad, impactful use cases to enhance the guest experience, deliver value to owners, and empower team members. As we advance our strategy, we're leveraging AI to embrace the new ways customers are discovering and engaging with our brands, working with leading partners, including Google, ChatGPT, and Anthropic, all while remaining focused on strengthening direct loyalty-driven relationships and maintaining discipline in how we manage distribution. Building on this, earlier this quarter, we deployed an anthropic-powered platform for customers to dream and shop called the Hilton AI Planner. This LLM-powered tool combines our incredibly rich property content with vast information about local venues and activities to allow customers to search for and tailor an experience that is unique to their interests. The AI planner enables guests to spend more time dreaming within our native environment, which should drive incremental demand across our portfolio as …
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