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FY2026 Q2
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FirstEnergy Corp. earnings call
Buzzberg read
Data center demand forecast up 30% to 25 GW
FirstEnergy reported in-line Q2 results, reaffirmed 2026 guidance, and emphasized a substantial acceleration in data center demand (now 25 GW forecasted). Management highlighted significant upside opportunities in West Virginia, including the Maidsville Energy Center and potential for a GenCo structure to accelerate future generation builds, alongside constructive regulatory progress in Ohio and New Jersey. Reaffirmed 2026 EPS guidance of $2.62-$2.82 and $6B capex plan; reaffirmed $36B five-year capex plan.
Buzzberg read Data center demand forecast up 30% to 25 GW FirstEnergy reported in-line Q2 results, reaffirmed 2026 guidance, and emphasized a substantial acceleration in data center demand (now 25 GW forecasted). Management highlighted significant upside opportunities in West Virginia, including the Maidsville Energy Center and potential for a GenCo structure to accelerate future generation builds, alongside constructive regulatory progress in Ohio and New Jersey. Reaffirmed 2026 EPS guidance of $2.62-$2.82 and $6B capex plan; reaffirmed $36B five-year capex plan. Read full analysisCollapse analysis
FirstEnergy reported in-line Q2 results, reaffirmed 2026 guidance, and emphasized a substantial acceleration in data center demand (now 25 GW forecasted). Management highlighted significant upside opportunities in West Virginia, including the Maidsville Energy Center and potential for a GenCo structure to accelerate future generation builds, alongside constructive regulatory progress in Ohio and New Jersey. Reaffirmed 2026 EPS guidance of $2.62-$2.82 and $6B capex plan; reaffirmed $36B five-year capex plan.
- Data center demand forecast increased 30% QoQ to ~25 GW; 2.1 GW contracted in Q2, another 1.5 GW expected shortly.
- Expects West Virginia rate order by end of July with $76M cumulative revenue increase.
- Makes progress on Maidsville 1.2 GW plant CPCN; exploring GenCo structure to speed up future generation projects.
Revenue$3.678B-12% QoQ
EPS$0.50-31% QoQ
Gross margin64.3%Reported
Operating margin18.41%Reported
6 grounded callouts
What matters now
The highest-signal changes from the call.
AI
6.4 GW contracted, 1.5 GW expected soon
Regulatory
Exploring GenCo structure for West Virginia growth
Show 3 more callouts
AI
Expecting 1.5 GW contracts within two weeks
Capex
Upside plan update later this year or early next year
Capex
Capex upside funded with 30-40% incremental equity
Reported period
Actuals
| Metric | Reported | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.678B | -12% QoQ |
| EPS | $0.50 | -31% QoQ |
| Gross margin | 64.3% | Reported |
| Operating margin | 18.41% | Reported |
| Free cash flow | $-0.353B | Reported |
| Capex | $1.342B | Reported |
Forward-looking
Forward guidance
| Metric | Period | Range | Midpoint | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capex | FY2026 | $6B | $6B | Maintained |
| Capex | FY2030 | $36B | $36B | Maintained |
| EPS | FY2026 | $2.62–$2.82 | $2.72 | Maintained |
| EPS | FY2030 | 6%–8% | 7% | Maintained |
AI, capex & demand read
Management read
Upbeat, Confident
Management repeatedly emphasized strong execution, record capex deployment, and significant growth opportunities from data center demand, framing the future as 'once in a generation' with multiple avenues for upside.
Management AI read
Management highlighted significant data center demand growth, with total forecasted demand up 30% to ~25 GW and 6.4 GW contracted, plus 1.5 GW expected to contract soon. They are pursuing related generation and transmission investment opportunities, including in West Virginia.
Investment and capacity
Management reaffirmed $6B 2026 capex and $36B five-year plan, with meaningful upside from data center-driven investments. They discussed incremental capex for new generation in West Virginia (estimated ~$250M per GW) and transmission opportunities, with updates expected later this year or early next year.
all 6 named companies below
Companiesreturns since call
Supply chain
Supply chain
Brian Tierney
Data center demand forecasted on FirstEnergy's system has increased 30% since Q1 to ~25 GW, with contracted demand at 6.4 GW and another 1.5 GW expected to be contracted in the next few weeks, signaling an accelerating pace of power procurement for AI infrastructure. — The pace at which incremental demand is contracted is a strong leading indicator for the broader power demand build-out, directly impacting merchant generators and other utilities in PJM with proximity to load.
Evidence
“Across our system, total forecasted data center demand has increased 30% since the first quarter to approximately 25 gigawatts. And during the second quarter alone, we contracted an additional 2.1 gigawatts bringing our total contracted”
Supply chain
Brian Tierney
FirstEnergy expects to allocate only ~4% of the PJM Reliability Resource Initiative (backstop) auction megawatts to its zone, reducing the cost burden on its customers and potentially signaling that the auction's risks are concentrated in other utilities' footprints. — This reveals that the backstop capacity costs will be unevenly distributed across the PJM footprint, potentially pressuring earnings or customer rates for utilities that receive larger allocations.
Evidence
“First Energy gets less than 4% of the 68 or 900 megawatts that's going to be allocated. The most important part to us is, are our customers protected? Is there affordability? And the fact that we're being allocated just 4% of that, I think”
External signals
Supply-chain alpha · 3returns since call
Data center demand forecasted on FirstEnergy's system has increased 30% since Q1 to ~25 GW, with contracted demand at 6.4 GW and another 1.5 GW expected to be contracted in the next few weeks, signaling an accelerating pace of power procurement for AI infrastructure.
Evidence
“Across our system, total forecasted data center demand has increased 30% since the first quarter to approximately 25 gigawatts. And during the second quarter alone, we contracted an additional 2.1 gigawatts bringing our total contracted de…”
FirstEnergy expects to allocate only ~4% of the PJM Reliability Resource Initiative (backstop) auction megawatts to its zone, reducing the cost burden on its customers and potentially signaling that the auction's risks are concentrated in other utilities' footprints.
Evidence
“First Energy gets less than 4% of the 68 or 900 megawatts that's going to be allocated. The most important part to us is, are our customers protected? Is there affordability? And the fact that we're being allocated just 4% of that, I think…”
FirstEnergy's strategy for its next generation plant in West Virginia is to accelerate development by using a GenCo structure, which would require FERC approval for wholesale sales but would bypass the lengthy traditional CPCN process, highlighting a regulatory path to faster capacity additions.
Evidence
“If we created a GenCo, that would obviously require, I think, FERC approval to sell it wholesale. But then the contract between the GENCO and MonPower, for instance, would need to be approved by the West Virginia Public Service Commission.…”
Methodology & coverage
Management-only analysis. All 6 validated company mentions are shown. Reported actuals and forward guidance are kept separate. Public evidence is limited to eight short attributed quotes. AI-generated analysis can be incomplete or wrong; verify important claims against the original source.