Guidance
Grasberg Block Cave restart delayed to Q2 2026 for PB2/PB3, PB1S mid-2027, PB1C end-2027.
Guidance tone
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Demand
Capex
FCX
FY2025 Q3
IN LINE
Freeport-McMoRan, Inc. earnings call
Buzzberg read
Grasberg Block Cave restart delayed to Q2 2026 for PB2/PB3, PB1S mid-2027, PB1C end-2027.
Freeport-McMoRan held a special earnings call to detail the investigation into the September 8 mud rush incident at the Grasberg Block Cave that killed seven workers. Management explained the unique geological and operational factors that caused the event, outlined a phased restart plan (PB2/PB3 by Q2 2026, PB1 South mid-2027, PB1C end-2027), and discounted any impact on other mines. No cross-company signal was provided; the call focused on internal safety and remediation. The incident was caused by an undetected high-velocity flow zone that connected a draw point to a 300-meter column of mud accumulated in the former open pit, with a 5-10x increase in flow velocity.
Buzzberg read Grasberg Block Cave restart delayed to Q2 2026 for PB2/PB3, PB1S mid-2027, PB1C end-2027. Freeport-McMoRan held a special earnings call to detail the investigation into the September 8 mud rush incident at the Grasberg Block Cave that killed seven workers. Management explained the unique geological and operational factors that caused the event, outlined a phased restart plan (PB2/PB3 by Q2 2026, PB1 South mid-2027, PB1C end-2027), and discounted any impact on other mines. No cross-company signal was provided; the call focused on internal safety and remediation. The incident was caused by an undetected high-velocity flow zone that connected a draw point to a 300-meter column of mud accumulated in the former open pit, with a 5-10x increase in flow velocity. Read full analysisCollapse analysis
Freeport-McMoRan held a special earnings call to detail the investigation into the September 8 mud rush incident at the Grasberg Block Cave that killed seven workers. Management explained the unique geological and operational factors that caused the event, outlined a phased restart plan (PB2/PB3 by Q2 2026, PB1 South mid-2027, PB1C end-2027), and discounted any impact on other mines. No cross-company signal was provided; the call focused on internal safety and remediation. The incident was caused by an undetected high-velocity flow zone that connected a draw point to a 300-meter column of mud accumulated in the former open pit, with a 5-10x increase in flow velocity.
- Phased restart: PB2 and PB3 resume in Q2 2026 after cement plugs isolate PB1C; PB1 South targeted mid-2027 (chute repairs); PB1C deferred to end-2027.
- Other mines (Deep MLZ, Big Gossan, Kucing Liar) have no similar risk and have already restarted; the Grasberg incident does not affect development of Kucing Liar.
- 2026 copper production expected similar to 2025; production rises to ~1.5bn lbs in 2027 and ~1.7bn lbs in 2028-2029 (small contribution from PB1C at 2-3%).
Revenue
$6.972B
reported
EPS
$0.50
reported
Gross margin
29.93%
reported
Op margin
28.06%
reported
What changed this quarter
Guidance
Production in 2026 expected similar to 2025, with significant increases in 2027-2029.
Guidance tone
Operations
Incident caused by undetected surface mud connection, not human error or water management failure.
Phased restart: PB2 and PB3 resume in Q2 2026 after cement plugs isolate PB1C; PB1 South targeted mid-2027 (chute repairs); PB1C deferred to end-2027.
Operations
Cement plugs and surface mud mitigation key to safe restart.
Other mines (Deep MLZ, Big Gossan, Kucing Liar) have no similar risk and have already restarted; the Grasberg incident does not affect development of Kucing Liar.
Demand & capex
Bookings & conversion
Management expresses confidence in the long-term recovery and value of Grasberg, but the near-term production impact and tragic incident temper the tone. The phased restart plan is laid out with clear milestones, but no upward revision to overall guidance.
Investment and capacity
Management cut capital expenditure guidance by approximately $800 million for 2025-2026, deferring spend to prioritize the Grasberg recovery. They added a placeholder of roughly $250 million for equipment replacement and damage, and expect up to $700 million in insurance coverage for underground losses.
Tone · Measured, Resolute
Management acknowledged the tragedy and technical uncertainty, but projected confidence in a phased, safety-first restart with long-term production recovery and growth.