Supply
← Earnings Calls
01
02
03
04 05 06
Tone
AI
Capex
A1 A2 A3
EQR
FY2026 Q1
Improving
Equity Residential earnings call
Buzzberg read
New supply deliveries expected down 35% in 2026
Equity Residential reported a solid Q1 2026 with strong performance in San Francisco and New York, offsetting weakness in Boston and Seattle. Management struck a cautiously optimistic tone for the second half of the year, driven by a 35% decline in new supply deliveries expected in 2026. San Francisco is the best performing market, with AI-driven demand, no concessions in downtown, and rents just now recovering to pre-COVID levels.
Buzzberg read New supply deliveries expected down 35% in 2026 Equity Residential reported a solid Q1 2026 with strong performance in San Francisco and New York, offsetting weakness in Boston and Seattle. Management struck a cautiously optimistic tone for the second half of the year, driven by a 35% decline in new supply deliveries expected in 2026. San Francisco is the best performing market, with AI-driven demand, no concessions in downtown, and rents just now recovering to pre-COVID levels. Read full analysisCollapse analysis
Equity Residential reported a solid Q1 2026 with strong performance in San Francisco and New York, offsetting weakness in Boston and Seattle. Management struck a cautiously optimistic tone for the second half of the year, driven by a 35% decline in new supply deliveries expected in 2026. San Francisco is the best performing market, with AI-driven demand, no concessions in downtown, and rents just now recovering to pre-COVID levels.
- New York continues to see strong demand with almost no new competitive supply in 2026.
- Boston and Seattle are lagging due to weather, life-science funding slowdown, and supply overhang, but management sees potential for recovery.
- Blended lease rate growth of 1.5% in Q1, with sequential improvement of 130 bps from Q4 2025.
SAME_STORE Revenue growth1.5%Reported
SAME_STORE Revenue$220MReported
Revenue$0.7798B-1% QoQ
EPS$0.24Reported
6 grounded callouts
What matters now
The highest-signal changes from the call.
Demand
SF leads with strong AI-driven demand and minimal concessions
Demand
Record low turnover and strong renewal rates
Show 3 more callouts
Macro
Management cautious on job market despite job posting uptick
Buybacks
Buybacks continue with $220M repurchased in Q1
Pricing
Concessions down 21% year-over-year as pricing power builds
Reported period
Actuals
| Metric | Reported | Change |
|---|---|---|
| SAME_STORE Revenue growth | 1.5% | Reported |
| SAME_STORE Revenue | $220M | Reported |
| Revenue | $0.7798B | -1% QoQ |
| EPS | $0.24 | Reported |
| Gross margin | 61.3% | Reported |
| Operating margin | 27.4% | Reported |
Forward-looking
Forward guidance
| Metric | Period | Range | Midpoint | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Units | FY2026 | -35% | -35% | Guided |
AI, capex & demand read
Management read
Confident
Management expresses confidence in the portfolio's positioning, citing record low turnover, strong renewal rates, and a positive supply outlook, while acknowledging mixed job market signals.
Management AI read
Management highlights that AI is driving strong demand in San Francisco, with AI-related job growth and office leasing activity creating pricing power and attracting residents from outside the MSA, which is expected to persist.
Investment and capacity
Management is investing in value-add renovations and capital sustainability projects focused on reducing energy consumption. They are re-underwriting projects due to rising energy costs and are not providing specific capex direction beyond these initiatives.
all 2 named companies below
Companiesreturns since call
Customers
Customers
Michael Manelis
Microsoft's return-to-office policy is driving some migration back into the Seattle market, a modest positive for EQR's Seattle portfolio.
Evidence
“some of that could be from the Microsoft returned office kind of policy change early in the first quarter that we saw”
XAI.PVT
Customers
Mark Perel
AI-driven demand in San Francisco is broad-based, benefiting not just core AI labs but the broader ecosystem, which should sustain demand for urban apartments.
Evidence
“We see all the office leasing activity, everything around AI. It isn't just the actual creators of AI. It's all the systems that sit on top of it.”
External signals
Supply-chain alpha · 3returns since call
San Francisco rents at EQR have just recovered to pre-COVID levels, implying nominal wage growth of ~30% since 2019 has not been matched by rent increases, leaving room for continued pricing power without affordability constraints.
Evidence
“I mean, rents downtown, we have a significant portfolio of just recently moved above rent levels just before COVID. So our resident can certainly reflect back on getting a 30% increase in nominal wages since 2019 and have their rent about…”
Seattle's inbound migration from foreign countries is running at ~50% of its typical 4-5% of move-ins rate, representing a supply-side drag that is slowing the market's recovery despite improved demand signals.
Evidence
“Typically Seattle is one of those markets that has a higher concentration of move-ins from kind of outside the U.S., so call it 4% or 5% of our move-ins during that quarter. We're running like 50% of that mark.”
Massachusetts rent control proposals are already causing EQR to halt development plans, an early indicator that regulatory risk is restricting new supply in the Boston market.
Evidence
“There are a couple of deals we were looking at in Massachusetts to start building that we stopped.”
Methodology & coverage
Management-only analysis. All 2 validated company mentions are shown. Reported actuals and forward guidance are kept separate. Public evidence is limited to eight short attributed quotes. AI-generated analysis can be incomplete or wrong; verify important claims against the original source.