Camden's Q2 2026 call focused on the successful execution of its California portfolio sale and Sunbelt reinvestment strategy, alongside a marked improvement in operating metrics. Management expressed growing confidence in a rental rate recovery, highlighted by positive system-wide signed new leases for the first time in years during July. Full-year guidance was maintained, reflecting strong operational performance offset by transaction timing. Completed the sale of its California portfolio for $1.625 billion and is deploying proceeds into Sunbelt acquisitions and buybacks, a strategy that is FFO neutral in 2026 but accretive beyond.
Camden's Q2 2026 call focused on the successful execution of its California portfolio sale and Sunbelt reinvestment strategy, alongside a marked improvement in operating metrics. Management expressed growing confidence in a rental rate recovery, highlighted by positive system-wide signed new leases for the first time in years during July. Full-year guidance was maintained, reflecting strong operational performance offset by transaction timing. Completed the sale of its California portfolio for $1.625 billion and is deploying proceeds into Sunbelt acquisitions and buybacks, a strategy that is FFO neutral in 2026 but accretive beyond.
Camden's Q2 2026 call focused on the successful execution of its California portfolio sale and Sunbelt reinvestment strategy, alongside a marked improvement in operating metrics. Management expressed growing confidence in a rental rate recovery, highlighted by positive…
Management highlighted numerous 'green shoots' in leasing trends, positive momentum in occupancy and renewal rates, and expressed confidence in the strategic repositioning, while maintaining guidance.
Signed blended lease rates improved 160 basis points sequentially in Q2, with July showing continued acceleration; 50% of communities have positive new lease growth in July vs 20% in March.
Renewal rate growth strengthened to over 4% in July, with renewal offers for August/September sent at an average increase of 4.2%.
Management is bullish on AI's potential to drive efficiencies across the income statement, from revenue enhancement to expense reduction, and has organized a dedicated lab to test and implement AI-driven solutions. They expect real bottom-line benefits within the next year.
System-wide signed new leases turned positive for first time. Management highlighted numerous 'green shoots' in leasing trends, positive momentum in occupancy and renewal rates, and expressed confidence in the strategic repositioning, while maintaining guidance.
Management mentioned that future recurring capex spend per unit is expected to decline by 5% following the sale of California assets and the acquisition of newer properties. No specific capex guidance was provided.
Management highlighted numerous 'green shoots' in leasing trends, positive momentum in occupancy and renewal rates, and expressed confidence in the strategic repositioning, while maintaining guidance.
“the sale of our California assets, combined with our 2,026 new acquisitions, further reduces our average age by one year. In addition, we expect our future recurring capex spend per unit to decline by 5%, and our bad debt to be reduced by…”
“if you look at post-financial crisis, okay, so our revenue went down roughly 5.1% in 2009 and 2010. From 2011 through 2019, the highest growth rate was 6.5%, the lowest growth rate was 2.9%, and through that eight-year period, it averaged…”
“if you look at March, signed new leases in Austin were down 11%. If you look at July, they're down 3%. That still is a negative, but that is 800 basis points better than what we saw in March.”
“the marketing spend for us was really ramped up as we entered into this leasing, you know, the peak leasing season where demand is typically high. We wanted to make sure that we went into this last summer season capturing as much of the de…”
| Metric | Period | Range | Midpoint | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | FY2026 | $6.75 | $6.75 | MAINTAINED |
| EPS | FY2026 Q3 | $1.69 | $1.69 | INITIATED |
| Issued | Metric | Target | Guide | Actual | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 Q4 | EPS | FY2026 Q1 | $1.64–$1.68 | $0.40 | Missed |
Management's commentary indicates that the entire multifamily sector could be entering a period of hockey-stick rent growth. Keith Oden explicitly compared the current cycle to the post-GFC recovery, where revenue growth averaged ~4% from 2011-2019 after a 5% decline. — This signals a widespread belief in a sharp sector recovery in 2027-2028 as supply declines and demand persists, which would be a major tailwind for all Sunbelt multifamily REITs.
“if you look at post-financial crisis, okay, so our revenue went down roughly 5.1% in 2009 and 2010. From 2011 through 2019, the highest growth rate was 6.5%, the lowest growth rate was 2.9%, and through that eight-year period, it averaged”
Please go ahead with your question. Hey, thanks. Good morning. So, Alex, when we were at NAIRI, we talked about this sort of hockey stick concept of future growth, and you implied that in the third quarter you expect, and I don't want to put words in your mouth, so don't let me do that, but that there would be some sort of real visible, you know, hockey stick type of event in the third quarter, and that was what was behind your guidance. I understand you're laying out all these green shoots, but it doesn't still feel like hockey stick to me. So I'm wondering if you're pulling back on that third quarter thesis a little bit or if it's still very much intact as you look into the coming…
I think it's really, I'm sorry, the interesting part of this equation is I think that a lot of folks have the recency effect, right? Which is, gee, in 24, 25, and 26, revenue grew on average for continually through that period, 2.1%. So we've had 41 months of, and if you go just back before into 2023, because you started having your slowdown because of supply then. So you had 41 months so far where we've had rents that have basically been flat or down in most markets. And so the market has this recency effect like, oh, well, that's just going to, let's just take the graph and we'll just, Take it out at 26, 27, 28, and that's what's going to happen. But if you look at post-financial crisis, okay, so our revenue went down roughly 5.1% in 2009 and 2010. From 2011 through 2019, the highest growth rate was 6.5%, the lowest growth rate was 2.9%, and through that eight-year period, it averaged somewhere around 4%. And so We're going to go back to a more normalized economy. We had an unprecedented situation where you had a 50-year high in supply. And so that's clearly something that we had to work through and will continue to work through. And once we do get to this point where you have a balance in supply and demand, we still have high demand in our markets, and we know that supply is going down. And so when you hit that pivot point, it's gonna be more like a hockey stick than a slow slog growth in my opinion. And just because of the history of where we operate and the history of how these markets work when you have supply and demand or demand higher than supply which is getting ready to happen next year probably.