ConocoPhillips reported strong Q1 results with $2.4B FCF, but management updated guidance to reflect the severe impact of Middle East supply disruptions, reducing production outlook and raising capex. The company emphasizes its unhedged oil and LNG exposure to capture upside from higher prices, while maintaining shareholder distributions. Q1 production of 2.309M boe/d, adjusted EPS $1.89, CFO $5.4B, returning $2B to shareholders.
ConocoPhillips reported strong Q1 results with $2.4B FCF, but management updated guidance to reflect the severe impact of Middle East supply disruptions, reducing production outlook and raising capex. The company emphasizes its unhedged oil and LNG exposure to capture upside from higher prices, while maintaining shareholder distributions. Q1 production of 2.309M boe/d, adjusted EPS $1.89, CFO $5.4B, returning $2B to shareholders.
Capex guidance was raised roughly 2% to $12–12.5B, driven by a modest Permian rig addition to keep pace with completion efficiencies, higher expected non-operated spending, and timing uncertainty around NFE/NFS project spend.
Q1 production of 2.309M boe/d, adjusted EPS $1.89, CFO $5.4B, returning $2B to shareholders.
Full-year production guidance midpoint lowered to 2.31M boe/d due to Middle East impacts and royalty adjustments.
Capex guidance raised to $12-12.5B for added Permian activity to sustain efficiency into 2027.
Management signals a strong uplift in cash flow and maintains a shareholder-friendly payout, underpinned by higher oil and LNG prices despite Middle East disruptions.
Capex guidance was raised roughly 2% to $12–12.5B, driven by a modest Permian rig addition to keep pace with completion efficiencies, higher expected non-operated spending, and timing uncertainty around NFE/NFS project spend.
Management acknowledged macro volatility and conflict-related uncertainty, but emphasized strong execution, durable capital priorities, and a differentiated portfolio.
“The brunt of the supply shortfall is currently being absorbed by refinery run cuts and demand curtailments... total global refinery run cuts right now probably amount to around 8 million barrels a day.”
“Our view is that... we have seen a structural tightening of global LNG, not just for this year, but for quite some time... prices are likely going to be quite constructive for a period of time.”
| Metric | Period | Range | Midpoint | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capex | FY2026 | $12B–$12.5Binline vs consensus | $12.25B | RAISED |
| Units | FY2026 | $2.31B | $2.31B | LOWERED |
Global refinery run cuts of ~8 million b/d are absorbing the supply shortfall, with accelerating inventory draws expected from May onwards; import-dependent countries may face shortages in June-July.
LNG market is structurally tightening following Qatar disruption; ConocoPhillips sees the need for prices to remain elevated to manage supply-demand balance.