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CARR FY2026 Q2 RAISED

Carrier Global Corporation earnings call

Jul 28, 2026 · 07:30 ET David GitlinMichael RednorPatrick Goris
Buzzberg read

Data center sales outlook raised to ~$2 billion for 2026

Carrier raised its FY2026 guidance across the board, driven by accelerating data center demand (up 4x orders) and a recovering residential business. Management flagged margin dilution from mix and investments, and announced a new U.S. facility to support growth. Full-year 2026 guidance raised: revenue ~$23B, EPS ~$2.90, and data center sales raised to ~$2B.

Buzzberg read Data center sales outlook raised to ~$2 billion for 2026 Carrier raised its FY2026 guidance across the board, driven by accelerating data center demand (up 4x orders) and a recovering residential business. Management flagged margin dilution from mix and investments, and announced a new U.S. facility to support growth. Full-year 2026 guidance raised: revenue ~$23B, EPS ~$2.90, and data center sales raised to ~$2B. Read full analysisCollapse analysis

Carrier raised its FY2026 guidance across the board, driven by accelerating data center demand (up 4x orders) and a recovering residential business. Management flagged margin dilution from mix and investments, and announced a new U.S. facility to support growth. Full-year 2026 guidance raised: revenue ~$23B, EPS ~$2.90, and data center sales raised to ~$2B.

  • Total company Q2 orders up 40% (commercial HVAC up 65%), with record backlog over $8B (40% data center).
  • Both residential and light commercial in Americas and Europe returned to growth, with high single-digit sales growth.
  • Margins came in below prior year due to unfavorable mix, input costs, tariff timing, and investments; management announced a more aggressive approach to cost and pricing.
Revenue $6.351B +19% QoQ
EPS $0.86 +51% QoQ
Gross margin 27.21% reported
Op margin 12.12% reported

What changed this quarter

01
Demand

Data center sales outlook raised to ~$2 billion for 2026

Management expressed strong confidence, citing record backlog, 40% order growth, and raising full-year guidance, while acknowledging margin challenges but affirming a clear path to improvement.

02
Demand

Total backlog exceeds $8 billion, up ~40% year-over-year

Data center sales outlook raised to ~$2 billion for 2026. Management expressed strong confidence, citing record backlog, 40% order growth, and raising full-year guidance, while acknowledging margin challenges but affirming a clear path to improvement.

03
Demand

Q2 orders up 40%, commercial HVAC up 65% on data centers

Data center sales outlook raised to ~$2 billion for 2026. Management expressed strong confidence, citing record backlog, 40% order growth, and raising full-year guidance, while acknowledging margin challenges but affirming a clear path to improvement.

04
Capex

New U.S. plant planned for data center capacity expansion

Management is increasing capacity investments, announcing a new facility in India and finalizing plans for a new U.S. site (likely Texas or Alabama) to support data center demand. They have ordered advanced lead-time equipment and expect the new U.S. facility to be operational…

AI, capex & demand read

AI

Platform & monetization

Management discussed AI in the context of the 75F acquisition, highlighting its AI-enabled, cloud-native BMS platform that enables agentic AI applications for building autonomy, reliability, and energy optimization, positioning Carrier to lead in intelligent and autonomous buildings.

Demand

Bookings & conversion

Data center sales outlook raised to ~$2 billion for 2026. Management expressed strong confidence, citing record backlog, 40% order growth, and raising full-year guidance, while acknowledging margin challenges but affirming a clear path to improvement.

Capex

Investment and capacity

Management is increasing capacity investments, announcing a new facility in India and finalizing plans for a new U.S. site (likely Texas or Alabama) to support data center demand. They have ordered advanced lead-time equipment and expect the new U.S. facility to be operational by end of Q1 2027.

Tone · Upbeat

Management expressed strong confidence, citing record backlog, 40% order growth, and raising full-year guidance, while acknowledging margin challenges but affirming a clear path to improvement.

Supply-chain alpha

A1

The U.S. and Europe RLC businesses have restarted a recovery: the company's own sales are growing in the high single digits and it expects a ~10 point tailwind from the absence of destocking in 2H26.

“We didn't really see them in 2Q. We see them in the back half. We'll get 10 points of that benefit from the absence of destocking. in the second half.”
David Gitlin
A2

The company is building a new U.S. facility to support more data center capacity; it expects an exit run rate of $2.5B and is signing large long-term agreements that provide contractual confidence.

“We expect that we would be able to support $2.5 billion in data centers with the capacity that we've effectively built... it's not enough to support the demand that we see for 27, 28, 29, and beyond.”
David Gitlin
A3

Carrier's commercial HVAC back-half performance is tied to executing on its record backlog, especially in data centers: $1.5B of the $2B data center revenue is scheduled for delivery in 2H26, which is seen as an execution issue.

“So of the $2 billion, $1.5 billion is the balance of the year.”
Patrick Goris
A4

Management is increasing price investment discipline and taking a more structured approach to cost reduction to hit mid-teens operating margins in its EMEA segment, offsetting near-term margin dilution from mix and investments.

“We will continue to drive strong growth initiatives and will take a more aggressive and structured approach to cost reduction and pricing discipline.”
David Gitlin

Forward guidance

RaisedGuidance · revenue to $23B · was IN LINE last Q
Forward guidance
MetricPeriodRangeMidpointStatus
EPSFY2026$2.90$2.90RAISED
RevenueFY2026$23B$23BRAISED
RevenueDATA_CENTERFY2026$2B$2BRAISED
RevenueCSA_RESIFY20267%7%RAISED
RevenueCSA_RESI_LIGHT_COMMERCIAFY20267%7%RAISED

Guidance credibility

2 / 2met or beat
Guidance credibility
IssuedMetricTargetGuideActualOutcome
FY2026 Q1EPSFY2026 Q2$0.80$0.86Met / beat
FY2026 Q1RevenueFY2026 Q2$6B$6.351BMet / beat