AvalonBay reported a 'transition year' outlook for 2026, guiding to modest same-store revenue growth of 1.4% and a narrower 10-cent contribution from development. Management emphasized that the accelerated earnings benefit from recent development starts will largely land in 2027 (incremental $75M NOI). 2026 Same-Store Revenue Growth guided to +1.4%, with a caveat that second half improves to mid-2% range.
Buzzberg read2026 revenue growth forecast at modest 1.4%AvalonBay reported a 'transition year' outlook for 2026, guiding to modest same-store revenue growth of 1.4% and a narrower 10-cent contribution from development. Management emphasized that the accelerated earnings benefit from recent development starts will largely land in 2027 (incremental $75M NOI). 2026 Same-Store Revenue Growth guided to +1.4%, with a caveat that second half improves to mid-2% range.Read full analysisCollapse analysis
AvalonBay reported a 'transition year' outlook for 2026, guiding to modest same-store revenue growth of 1.4% and a narrower 10-cent contribution from development. Management emphasized that the accelerated earnings benefit from recent development starts will largely land in 2027 (incremental $75M NOI). 2026 Same-Store Revenue Growth guided to +1.4%, with a caveat that second half improves to mid-2% range.
Renewal offers for Feb/Mar delivered in 4% to 4.5% range, expected to settle at a 100-125bps dilution.
Development starts cut back to $800M in 2026 (from $1.65B in 2025) at higher yields of 6.5-7%, with most projects in the established East Coast regions.
Development earnings contribution of $0.10/sh in 2026, but management expects significant ramp into 2027 with an incremental $75M NOI.
Revenue$0.7679B
reported
EPS$1.17
reported
Gross margin68.23%
reported
Op margin29.71%
reported
What changed this quarter
01
Guidance
2026 revenue growth forecast at modest 1.4%
Guidance tone
02
Supply
Supply tailwinds expected to drive second-half improvement
2026 Same-Store Revenue Growth guided to +1.4%, with a caveat that second half improves to mid-2% range.
03
Development
Development starts trimmed to $800M at higher yields
Renewal offers for Feb/Mar delivered in 4% to 4.5% range, expected to settle at a 100-125bps dilution.
04
Buybacks
Share buybacks remain an option but not in baseline
Development starts cut back to $800M in 2026 (from $1.65B in 2025) at higher yields of 6.5-7%, with most projects in the established East Coast regions.
Demand
Demand
Bookings & conversion
Management guides to a muted 2026 on the operating side (1.4% SSNOI revenue growth) and a transition year for development earnings, but explicitly sets up 2027 as the outsized growth year (incremental $75M NOI from recent developments). Supply is expected to be a tailwind, but demand uncertainty tempers near-term growth.
Tone · Measured
Management balanced cautious near-term guidance with optimism around supply tailwinds and long-term development value creation.
Supply-chain alpha
A1
Supply in AvalonBay's established regions is expected at only 80 basis points of stock this year, a level not seen since coming out of the GFC, creating a significant pricing tailwind for incumbent apartment operators.
“supply in our established regions expected at only 80 basis points of stock this year, levels we have not seen since the period coming out of the GFC”
AvalonBay notes that the phase-out of property tax abatement programs and a favorable prior-year tax settlement create a 120 basis point headwind to 2026 same-store operating expense growth.
“The phase-out of property tax abatement programs will add roughly 70 basis points. In addition, we settled a very favorable property tax appeal in Q4 2025... creating a 50 basis point headwind for 2026.”
Supply in AvalonBay's established regions is expected at only 80 basis points of stock this year, a level not seen since coming out of the GFC, creating a significant pricing tailwind for incumbent apartment operators. — Shows a step-change improvement in the supply picture for coastal markets that will help stabilize and grow rents for all coastal multifamily landlords in 2026-27.
… than apartment rents over the past few years. Demand will also continue to benefit from the relative attractiveness of renting versus home ownership, which is particularly acute in our established regions. whereas over $2,000 per month more expensive to own a home, given home price levels, mortgage rates, and the increases in other costs of homeownership, such as insurance and property taxes. And then there's the supply outlook, with supply in our established regions expected at only 80 basis points of stock this year, levels we have not seen since the period coming out of the GFC. And given the challenges of getting entitlements and how lengthy the process is in our established regions, We expect this supply backdrop to serve as a tailwind for us for the foreseeable future. Balancing these series of dynamics, slides 9 and 10 provide our outlook for 2026. We enter the year with a high-quality portfolio concentrated in suburban coasts with historically low levels of supply, a differentiated development platform, and one of the strongest balance sheets in the REIT sector. And where our guidance assumes modest growth in 2026, We are well positioned to generate meaningful earnings …
AvalonBay notes that the phase-out of property tax abatement programs and a favorable prior-year tax settlement create a 120 basis point headwind to 2026 same-store operating expense growth.