Guidance
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FY2025 Q4
Improving
Apollo Global Management, Inc. (New) earnings call
Buzzberg read
2026 FRE growth expected 20%+
Apollo reported exceptional full-year results for 2025, with record origination volumes and inflows, and management issued highly confident guidance for continued growth in 2026. The call focused heavily on their strong positioning versus competitors in the software sector and their ability to expand into new markets like 401k and traditional asset management. Record originations of over $300 billion and record inflows of $228 billion in 2025.
Buzzberg read 2026 FRE growth expected 20%+ Apollo reported exceptional full-year results for 2025, with record origination volumes and inflows, and management issued highly confident guidance for continued growth in 2026. The call focused heavily on their strong positioning versus competitors in the software sector and their ability to expand into new markets like 401k and traditional asset management. Record originations of over $300 billion and record inflows of $228 billion in 2025. Read full analysisCollapse analysis
Apollo reported exceptional full-year results for 2025, with record origination volumes and inflows, and management issued highly confident guidance for continued growth in 2026. The call focused heavily on their strong positioning versus competitors in the software sector and their ability to expand into new markets like 401k and traditional asset management. Record originations of over $300 billion and record inflows of $228 billion in 2025.
- Provided explicit 2026 guidance: 20%+ FRE growth and 10% SRE growth, with $85 billion in retirement services inflows.
- Management highlighted a key competitive moat: significant under-exposure to the troubled software sector, positioning the firm to gain share from competitors.
- Apollo announced a partnership with Schroders and a move to acquire $9 billion in assets from public BDC ARI for its own balance sheet, capitalizing on structural market inefficiencies.
Revenue$8.114BReported
TOTAL_MANAGED Revenue$938BReported
EPS$2.47Reported
Gross margin69.66%Reported
6 grounded callouts
What matters now
The highest-signal changes from the call.
Inflows
Athene inflows target $85B for 2026
Guidance
SRE growth reaffirmed at 10% through 2029
Show 3 more callouts
Risk
Software exposure deliberately low across businesses
Capital Deployment
ARI transaction de-risks 2026 SRE growth
Strategy
Positioned on offense in software
Reported period
Actuals
| Metric | Reported | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.114B | Reported |
| TOTAL_MANAGED Revenue | $938B | Reported |
| EPS | $2.47 | Reported |
| Gross margin | 69.66% | Reported |
| Operating margin | 52.6% | Reported |
| Free cash flow | $2.819B | Reported |
Forward-looking
Forward guidance
| Metric | Period | Range | Midpoint | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RevenueFEE_RELATED_EARNINGS | FY2026 | 20% | 20% | Maintained |
| RevenueSPREAD_RELATED_EARNINGS | FY2026 | 10% | 10% | Maintained |
| RevenueRETIREMENT_SERVICES_INFL | FY2026 | $85B | $85B | Initiated |
AI, capex & demand read
Management read
Confident
Management repeatedly emphasized strong execution, record results, and a clear growth path, expressing confidence in continued outperformance and competitive advantages.
Investment and capacity
Management discussed infrastructure investment, particularly in next generation technology platforms, data and AI initiatives, which contributed to higher fee-related expenses in 2025. They expect continued investment in platform build-out to support six markets, with non-comp costs growing low double digits and comp costs high teens in 2026.
all 9 named companies below
Companiesreturns since call
Customers
XAI.PVT
Customers
Jim Zelter
Apollo is providing financing for data center infrastructure being leased by xAI, positioning Apollo as a key capital provider in the AI infrastructure build-out.
Evidence
“In December, we led a $3.5 billion capital solution to support Baylor's $5.4 billion acquisition and lease of data center infrastructure to a subsidiary of XAI.”
Customers
Jim Zelter
Apollo's loan to Russell Investments demonstrates its ability to provide large, bespoke financing solutions to asset managers.
Evidence
“And lastly, our hybrid and credit franchise delivered a $1.2 billion in strategic financing for Russell Investments, providing long-term capital and enhanced balance sheet flexibility to support their continued expansion.”
Partners
Partners
Mark Rowan
Apollo's PRIV ETF with State Street is growing in size and is among top performers in its category, suggesting strong client adoption of liquid private credit products.
Evidence
“And PRIV, our ETF with State Street, now approaches 700 million in size.”
Partners
Mark Rowan
Apollo's partnership with Schroders is expected to scale significantly, indicating a major channel for distributing private assets to a broader market.
Evidence
“Traditional asset managers, you saw the announcement with Schroeders this morning, which I expect to grow into a multi-billion dollar partnership.”
Investees
Investees
Jim Zelter
Mentioned as counterparties in high-quality (IG) debt investments on Athene's balance sheet, indicating a low-risk software exposure.
Evidence
“On Athene's balance sheet, we have de minimis exposure of 0.5%, which is virtually all IG rated, with hyperscalers such as Microsoft and Oracle.”
Investees
Martin Kelly
Apollo is transferring assets from its public BDC (ARI) to its private balance sheet (Athene), a move that highlights a structural advantage in being able to allocate capital across different forms of public and private structures. — This trend suggests Apollo can be one of the few actors that can buy undervalued assets from listed vehicles, consolidating assets at attractive spreads away from public market scrutiny.
Evidence
“The recently announced transaction with Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, ARI, is one such example where Athene will acquire, subject to ARI stockholder approval, $9 billion of commercial mortgage assets”
Supply chain
Supply chain
Mark Rowan
Apollo expects to deploy capital into the sports ecosystem, forecasting $30-50 billion of origination opportunities from its Sports Capital fund alone — This signals an aggressive push into sports financing, which could displace traditional lenders and provide new capital sources to teams and leagues, potentially increasing franchise valuations.
Evidence
“In addition to deploying the six or so billion in the sports capital fund, I believe this ecosystem will generate 30 to 50 billion of origination opportunities.”
External signals
Supply-chain alpha · 3returns since call
Apollo re-affirms its minimal exposure to the volatile software sector, with 0% exposure in its PE business and less than 2% of total AUM, positioning it to benefit from other managers' distress.
Apollo is transferring assets from its public BDC (ARI) to its private balance sheet (Athene), a move that highlights a structural advantage in being able to allocate capital across different forms of public and private structures.
Apollo expects to deploy capital into the sports ecosystem, forecasting $30-50 billion of origination opportunities from its Sports Capital fund alone
Methodology & coverage
Management-only analysis. All 9 validated company mentions are shown. Reported actuals and forward guidance are kept separate. Public evidence is limited to eight short attributed quotes. AI-generated analysis can be incomplete or wrong; verify important claims against the original source.