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FY2025 Q4
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Ameren Corporation earnings call
Buzzberg read
Signed 2.2 GW of large load ESAs in Missouri
Ameren reported strong 2025 results with EPS of $5.03, up 8.6% YoY, and affirmed 2026 guidance of $5.25-$5.45. The company raised its 5-year capex plan by 21% to $31.8bn and provided an optimistic outlook on large load growth, having recently signed ESAs for 2.2GW of new demand in Missouri. Reported FY2025 adjusted EPS of $5.03, in line with prior guidance, representing 8.6% growth over FY2024.
Buzzberg read Signed 2.2 GW of large load ESAs in Missouri Ameren reported strong 2025 results with EPS of $5.03, up 8.6% YoY, and affirmed 2026 guidance of $5.25-$5.45. The company raised its 5-year capex plan by 21% to $31.8bn and provided an optimistic outlook on large load growth, having recently signed ESAs for 2.2GW of new demand in Missouri. Reported FY2025 adjusted EPS of $5.03, in line with prior guidance, representing 8.6% growth over FY2024. Read full analysisCollapse analysis
Ameren reported strong 2025 results with EPS of $5.03, up 8.6% YoY, and affirmed 2026 guidance of $5.25-$5.45. The company raised its 5-year capex plan by 21% to $31.8bn and provided an optimistic outlook on large load growth, having recently signed ESAs for 2.2GW of new demand in Missouri. Reported FY2025 adjusted EPS of $5.03, in line with prior guidance, representing 8.6% growth over FY2024.
- Affirmed FY2026 EPS guidance of $5.25-$5.45, implying ~8.1% growth from the original 2025 midpoint.
- Raised 5-year capex plan by 21% to $31.8bn for 2026-2030, citing robust generation investment needs.
- Signed ESAs for 2.2GW of new large load demand in Missouri, but kept the 1.2GW baseline in its guidance, highlighting potential upside.
Revenue$1.782BReported
EPS$0.78Reported
Gross margin27.95%Reported
Operating margin20.2%Reported
6 grounded callouts
What matters now
The highest-signal changes from the call.
Capex
Rolled forward capital plan to $31.8B, up 21%
Guidance
Expected EPS growth near upper end of 6-8%
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Generation
MISO approved Big Hollow gas and battery project
Resource Plan
Filed triennial IRP later this year
Financing
Equity issuance expected ~$4B through 2030
Reported period
Actuals
| Metric | Reported | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.782B | Reported |
| EPS | $0.78 | Reported |
| Gross margin | 27.95% | Reported |
| Operating margin | 20.2% | Reported |
| Free cash flow | $-0.08B | Reported |
| Capex | $1.036B | Reported |
Forward-looking
Forward guidance
| Metric | Period | Range | Midpoint | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capex | FY2030 | $31.8B | $31.8B | Raised |
| EPS | FY2026 | $5.25–$5.45 | $5.35 | Maintained |
| Units | FY2030 | $1.2B | $1.2B | Maintained |
AI, capex & demand read
Management read
Upbeat
Management emphasized strong execution, growth in the pipeline (2.2 GW ESAs signed), and increased five-year capital plan, reflecting confidence in future opportunities.
Investment and capacity
Management raised its five-year capital plan to $31.8 billion (up ~21% from last year), driven primarily by generation investment to support expected load growth and reliability, targeting 10.6% rate base CAGR through 2030.
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Companiesreturns since call
Supply chain
Supply chain
Marty Lyons
Ameren's $31.8bn capex plan is heavily front-end loaded into generation investments (turbines for a 2.1GW CCGT are already secured), suggesting supply chain allocations are locked in now. — Securing turbine production slots years ahead of construction signals that the supply chain for gas turbines is tight and that equipment suppliers have pricing power, reflecting broader demand in the sector.
Evidence
“We continue to actively plan for the construction of a 2.1 gigawatt combined cycle facility included in our IRP, having secured production slots for the three necessary turbines.”
External signals
Supply-chain alpha · 3returns since call
Ameren has signed 2.2 GW of ESAs but has only baked 1.2 GW of load growth into its 2030 guidance forecast, implying a significant potential upside if these projects are built out as planned.
Evidence
“As you look at this 2.2 gigawatts of ESAs, that certainly represents upside to the sales growth that has been embedded in that 6% to 8% guidance and in our assertion that we expect to deliver near the upper end of that range.”
Ameren's $31.8bn capex plan is heavily front-end loaded into generation investments (turbines for a 2.1GW CCGT are already secured), suggesting supply chain allocations are locked in now.
Ameren is talking with data center developers and has received significant non-refundable deposits ($46M), but is keeping the 2.2GW of newly signed deals out of its base guidance, highlighting the uncertainty around actual energy consumption vs. contracted capacity.
Evidence
“Executing these ESAs is an important milestone. Of course, there are a number of other project milestones still to be achieved, including the customer project announcements, groundbreaking, and construction.”
Methodology & coverage
Management-only analysis. All 2 validated company mentions are shown. Reported actuals and forward guidance are kept separate. Public evidence is limited to eight short attributed quotes. AI-generated analysis can be incomplete or wrong; verify important claims against the original source.