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ADM
FY2026 Q1
Improving
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company earnings call
Buzzberg read
ADM raises 2026 EPS guidance on stronger margins
ADM delivered a strong Q1 2026, driven by robust crushing and ethanol margins following the EPA finalizing the RVO rule. Management significantly raised the full-year EPS guidance and provided a positive tone, highlighting continued strength in the biofuel policy environment and strong operational execution. ADM raised FY2026 EPS guidance to $4.15-$4.70, up from $3.60-$4.25, citing the constructive margin environment for crush and ethanol.
Buzzberg read ADM raises 2026 EPS guidance on stronger margins ADM delivered a strong Q1 2026, driven by robust crushing and ethanol margins following the EPA finalizing the RVO rule. Management significantly raised the full-year EPS guidance and provided a positive tone, highlighting continued strength in the biofuel policy environment and strong operational execution. ADM raised FY2026 EPS guidance to $4.15-$4.70, up from $3.60-$4.25, citing the constructive margin environment for crush and ethanol. Read full analysisCollapse analysis
ADM delivered a strong Q1 2026, driven by robust crushing and ethanol margins following the EPA finalizing the RVO rule. Management significantly raised the full-year EPS guidance and provided a positive tone, highlighting continued strength in the biofuel policy environment and strong operational execution. ADM raised FY2026 EPS guidance to $4.15-$4.70, up from $3.60-$4.25, citing the constructive margin environment for crush and ethanol.
- Q1 report had ~$275M net negative mark-to-market impact, with majority expected to reverse in Q2, which will boost Q2 results.
- Ethanol margins are expected to remain strong, supported by 45Z benefits which are now guided at $150M for the year, up from $100M.
- US soybean crush run-rate jumped ~10% year-over-year in March, reflecting the industry's quick supply response to improved biofuel margins.
Revenue$20.49B+10% QoQ
EPS$0.71-18% QoQ
Gross margin5.96%Reported
Operating margin1.99%Reported
6 grounded callouts
What matters now
The highest-signal changes from the call.
Margins
Ethanol margins strengthened, driven by RVO policy and exports
Margins
Soybean crush margins improved significantly
Show 3 more callouts
Guidance
Expects majority of $275M mark-to-market hit to reverse in Q2
Operational
Nutrition profitability up 42%, driven by flavors and recovery
Policy
45Z ethanol benefit raised to $150 million for 2026
Reported period
Actuals
| Metric | Reported | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $20.49B | +10% QoQ |
| EPS | $0.71 | -18% QoQ |
| Gross margin | 5.96% | Reported |
| Operating margin | 1.99% | Reported |
| Free cash flow | $-0.044B | Reported |
| Capex | $0.194B | Reported |
Forward-looking
Forward guidance
| Metric | Period | Range | Midpoint | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capex | FY2026 | $1.3B–$1.5B | $1.4B | Maintained |
| EPS | FY2026 | $4.15–$4.70 | $4.43 | Raised |
AI, capex & demand read
Management read
Constructive
Management is upbeat about the improved margin environment and policy clarity, raising guidance and emphasizing strong execution and growth opportunities.
Management AI read
Management discussed using AI in workflows to reduce manual touchpoints, errors, and cycle times, and expanding automation and AI in supply chain management and freight and logistic networks.
Investment and capacity
ADM maintains full-year 2026 CapEx in the range of $1.3 to $1.5 billion, with first quarter investments of $194 million. Capital is directed to cost savings projects, growth platforms, and digitization.
all 5 named companies below
Companiesreturns since call
Customers
Customers
Juan Luciano
Winning an innovation award from Henkel signals ADM's biosolutions are gaining commercial traction with major consumer goods companies, potentially leading to greater volumes and high-margin revenue.
Evidence
“A concrete example of this is a starch-based component we developed for fabric softeners, for which we were recognized earlier this year with the Best Innovation Contributor Award by Henkel Consumer Brands.”
Investees
Investees
Manish Patilwala
ADM's equity stake in Wilmar generated lower quarterly earnings, reflecting continued softer conditions in the Asian agribusiness and food processing sectors.
Evidence
“Equity earnings from our investment in Wilmar was $66 million for the quarter, down 8% compared to the prior quarter.”
Supply chain
Supply chain
Juan Luciano
ADM confirms 45Z clean fuel tax credit impact for full year 2026 is now expected at $150 million, up from $100 million previously guided, indicating higher-than-anticipated government policy support benefits. — Higher 45Z benefits for ADM suggest the entire US ethanol industry may be benefiting more than expected from policy incentives, boosting margins for producers like Green Plains and big players like Bunge in crushing.
Evidence
“So at this point in time, given what happened in the Q1, we are increasing the expected amount. I think we mentioned last time it was going to be $100 million. Now we're saying it's $150 million.”
Supply chain
Juan Luciano
US soybean crush rates in March jumped 6% month-over-month and are running about 10% higher than last year, indicating a rapid supply response to the improved margin environment post-RVO rule. — A surge in US crush rates increases supply of soybean meal for livestock feed and soybean oil for renewable diesel, potentially affecting prices and margins for downstream customers like Tyson Foods and biofuel producers.
Evidence
“So if you look at crash rates for March, we jumped 6%. So crash rates in March for North America run about 10% higher than last year.”
External signals
Supply-chain alpha · 3returns since call
ADM confirms 45Z clean fuel tax credit impact for full year 2026 is now expected at $150 million, up from $100 million previously guided, indicating higher-than-anticipated government policy support benefits.
US soybean crush rates in March jumped 6% month-over-month and are running about 10% higher than last year, indicating a rapid supply response to the improved margin environment post-RVO rule.
The invert in the soy crush futures curve means forward margins are weaker; management attributes this to broad uncertainties (trade, energy, weather) that are holding back customers from forward-booking, keeping near-term demand spot-led.
Evidence
“So I think the curve is reflecting that and to the extent that we move forward, and those dynamics continue, the curve may be extending forward.”
Methodology & coverage
Management-only analysis. All 5 validated company mentions are shown. Reported actuals and forward guidance are kept separate. Public evidence is limited to eight short attributed quotes. AI-generated analysis can be incomplete or wrong; verify important claims against the original source.