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ADM
FY2025 Q4
Improving
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company earnings call
Buzzberg read
2026 EPS guidance range reflects policy timing uncertainty
ADM reported Q4 2025 earnings that were down significantly due to weak crush margins and softness in consumer-driven markets, but management offered a more constructive 2026 outlook. The guidance calls for EPS growth driven by expected US biofuel policy clarity, improved trade flows, and a continued recovery in the nutrition segment, while highlighting persistent challenges in starches and sweeteners. Q4 2025 adjusted EPS was $0.87, bringing full-year 2025 EPS to $3.43, down from prior year due to weak AS&O performance, particularly in crushing.
Buzzberg read 2026 EPS guidance range reflects policy timing uncertainty ADM reported Q4 2025 earnings that were down significantly due to weak crush margins and softness in consumer-driven markets, but management offered a more constructive 2026 outlook. The guidance calls for EPS growth driven by expected US biofuel policy clarity, improved trade flows, and a continued recovery in the nutrition segment, while highlighting persistent challenges in starches and sweeteners. Q4 2025 adjusted EPS was $0.87, bringing full-year 2025 EPS to $3.43, down from prior year due to weak AS&O performance, particularly in crushing. Read full analysisCollapse analysis
ADM reported Q4 2025 earnings that were down significantly due to weak crush margins and softness in consumer-driven markets, but management offered a more constructive 2026 outlook. The guidance calls for EPS growth driven by expected US biofuel policy clarity, improved trade flows, and a continued recovery in the nutrition segment, while highlighting persistent challenges in starches and sweeteners. Q4 2025 adjusted EPS was $0.87, bringing full-year 2025 EPS to $3.43, down from prior year due to weak AS&O performance, particularly in crushing.
- 2026 EPS guidance is set at $3.60-$4.25, with the high end contingent on the timing and adoption of US biofuel policies (RVO) and stronger consumer demand.
- The company expects the Alltech JV to be neutral to profits but a headwind to reported revenue.
- Ethanol margins are expected to be relatively strong in 2026, offsetting continued softness in starches and sweeteners.
Revenue$18.556BReported
EPS$0.87Reported
Gross margin6.54%Reported
Operating margin1.72%Reported
6 grounded callouts
What matters now
The highest-signal changes from the call.
Macro
Expected to be more constructive operating environment in 2026
Cost Savings
Cost savings program on track; more manufacturing productivity planned
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Demand
Nutrition growth driven by flavors, specialty, and biotics
Margins
Ethanol margins to offset softness in starches and sweeteners
Macro
Ag Services and Oilseeds benefit from China trade progress and biofuel policy
Reported period
Actuals
| Metric | Reported | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $18.556B | Reported |
| EPS | $0.87 | Reported |
| Gross margin | 6.54% | Reported |
| Operating margin | 1.72% | Reported |
| Free cash flow | $-0.669B | Reported |
| Capex | $0.356B | Reported |
Forward-looking
Forward guidance
| Metric | Period | Range | Midpoint | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capex | FY2026 | $1.3B–$1.5B | $1.4B | Guided |
| EPS | FY2026 | $3.60–$4.25 | $3.92 | Guided |
AI, capex & demand read
Management read
Cautiously Optimisti
Management expresses confidence in a more constructive operating environment ahead, but repeatedly emphasizes uncertainty around policy timing and market adoption, reflecting a measured and careful tone.
Investment and capacity
Management plans to invest $1.3 to $1.5 billion in capital expenditures in 2026, up from $1.2 billion in 2025, and highlighted a disciplined capital allocation policy focused on solid cash flow generation and continued cost savings. They also mentioned investments in growth platforms such as enhanced nutrition, biotics, bio solutions, precision fermentation, and decarbonization, including carbon s
all 1 named companies below
Companiesreturns since call
Supply chain
Supply chain
Juan Luciano
ADM expects ~$100M of benefit from 45Z clean fuel tax credits in 2026, but notes it is highly variable depending on final guidance, plant carbon intensity, and industry pricing dynamics. — This is the first quantified estimate from ADM on the impact of 45Z, providing a baseline for investors but also highlighting the uncertainty in modeling the benefit across the industry.
Evidence
“We think when we put in our estimate, we think that it could be approximately $100 million. But as I said, just to give you a flavor, there are many variables, so take that with a grain of salt.”
External signals
Supply-chain alpha · 2returns since call
ADM's North American plant operating costs have become structurally higher post-COVID, impacting margins relative to peers and historical performance.
Evidence
“I would say the main difference since I've been running this for so many years is our manufacturing costs have gone up.”
ADM expects ~$100M of benefit from 45Z clean fuel tax credits in 2026, but notes it is highly variable depending on final guidance, plant carbon intensity, and industry pricing dynamics.
Methodology & coverage
Management-only analysis. All 1 validated company mentions are shown. Reported actuals and forward guidance are kept separate. Public evidence is limited to eight short attributed quotes. AI-generated analysis can be incomplete or wrong; verify important claims against the original source.