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13:30
Jul 31
XOM VLO MPC PSX TRGP
Management frames the Guyana cost-bank desaturation as a free-cash-flow inflection and expects structurally strong refining margins, so tone is clearly constructive despite Middle East disruptions.
"going forward, we're going to see Two times the level of free cash flow in 2030 than we saw in 2025."
XOM WATCH
Physical global refining supply is materially offline: ~3M bpd unavailable from the Strait of Hormuz disruption, plus China's export halt and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries. This is a supply-side contraction, not just a demand story. — Global diesel and jet refining margins are likely to stay structurally high, supporting independent US refiners even if crude prices fade.
"China has stopped exporting. There's another couple million barrels a day of refinery capacity that is not available to the market. And then, of course, Ukraine's been pretty effective at taking Russia refinery capacity out."
VLO WATCH MPC WATCH PSX WATCH
Permian gas takeaway capacity coming online should remove the gas-oil ratio constraint, meaning more associated gas and NGL volumes will flow even as operators keep optimizing for oil. — Permian-focused gas/NGL midstream companies should see accelerating throughput as pipeline constraints clear.
"we may see some additional gas come onto the marketplace associated with that. But the real driver will be unconstrained takeaway capacity and maximizing oil production."
TRGP WATCH ET WATCH
HIGH
13:30
May 01
ADNOC VEN IOL XOM KMI
Exxon is working with ADNOC to help grow UAE production towards 5 million barrels per day, leveraging Exxon's technology and expertise.
"We have a very long relationship there. I think we have worked very productively with ADNOC and establishing an opportunity set to take some of our capability sets and advantages and bring them to bear in terms of unlocking additional"
ADNOC WATCH
Exxon sees potential in Venezuela's heavy oil resources, leveraging its Canadian technology, but requires attractive investment conditions.
"If you look at Venezuela, obviously Venezuela is a huge resource that's now opened up more freely to the world."
VEN WATCH
Joint venture partner in Canadian heavy oil assets, where Exxon is improving competitiveness and cost of supply.
"the emphasis that we've had over the last several years working with IOL is to really – drive performance improvement in our Curl assets"
IOL WATCH
Management is confident in Exxon's positioning during the market disruption, highlighting its scale, integration, and execution capabilities. They expect further price increases and strong performance across segments.
"The disruption to the broader economy we are seeing underscores the critical role our company plays in providing the affordable, reliable energy and products the world depends on."
XOM WATCH
Golden Pass LNG Train 1 achieved first LNG in March, adding ~5% to US LNG export capacity, with trains 2 & 3 expected online by end-2026 and Q2 2027. — New US LNG supply strengthens the US export position and impacts global gas prices, benefiting pipeline infrastructure companies.
"Train 1 of the facility achieved first LNG in March and will deliver an increase of about 5% relative to 2025 U.S. exports. By the time the third train is online, we will increase the country's current LNG exports by roughly 15%."
KMI WATCH
HIGH
14:30
Jan 30
PXD SAP DEN VG XOM
Management highlights that it has repurchased shares equivalent to one-third of those issued in the Pioneer acquisition, a strategy to offset the dilution from that deal and manage the legacy Pioneer shareholder base.
"we completed $20 billion in share repurchases, retiring shares equivalent to one-third of those issued during the Pioneer transaction"
PXD WATCH
Comments on the mandatory upgrade to S4/HANA highlight a significant IT investment cycle for all SAP customers, with ExxonMobil using it as an opportunity to consolidate its ERP landscape.
"all companies need to, who operate on an SAP platform, need to upgrade as SAP has moved to S4 HANA. And so we were facing a need to upgrade."
SAP WATCH
The Denbury acquisition is cited as the key differentiator that puts ExxonMobil in a unique position to secure data center and other carbon capture deals, underscoring the strategic value of that investment.
"we're uniquely positioned with respect to that with the investment that we made in Denbury and today have the only scale end-to-end carbon capture and sequestration system"
DEN WATCH
Golden Pass LNG is expected to produce first LNG in early March, moving the project from construction to the startup phase. — This begins the revenue generation phase for the project and is a critical milestone for both ExxonMobil and its partner Venture Global.
"My expectation is we will see kind of first LNG produced in very early March is what it's looking like right now."
VG WATCH
Management's tone is confidently optimistic, highlighting exceptional execution in Guyana and the Permian, cost advantages, and continued production growth through 2030, while carefully managing capital and buybacks.
"We're maintaining a measured pace of share repurchases subject to reasonable market conditions while preserving flexibility to invest through the cycle."
XOM WATCH
HIGH