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14:00
Jul 30
VTR WELL OHI SBRA
Management is highly bullish, citing strong SHOP NOI growth, accelerated investment activity (raising 2026 investment guidance to $4.5B), and powerful demographic tailwinds. They repeatedly emphasize 'the best is yet to come' and expect continued outsized growth.
"Ventas has never been better positioned to capture the multi-year growth opportunity in senior housing."
VTR WATCH
Management highlights that new senior housing development projects generally do not pencil out because current rents need to be 25-40% higher and trended yields need to reach ~8%, which is well above current acquisition yields of ~6.5%. — This confirms a sustained supply shortage for the sector, which should support pricing power and occupancy gains for existing senior housing operators for years to come.
"We think that current rents need to be up to 40% higher or even more than that in certain cases, trended RETs around 25% higher. So we're a ways off from probably any big wave in development."
WELL WATCH OHI WATCH SBRA WATCH
HIGH
14:00
Apr 28
BKD VTR
Ventas's legacy triple-net lease with Brookdale is contributing to growth through a contracted rent escalator, while the transition of 45 properties to SHOP is on track.
"Our triple net segment grew same store cash NOI by 1.6% in the quarter, benefiting from the 35% Brookdale cash rent escalator, which went into effect January 1st of 2026."
BKD WATCH
Management's tone is strongly bullish, underpinned by a raised full-year FFO guide, 16% SHOP NOI growth, and a doubled investment volume guidance to $3B, fueled by demographic tailwinds and a strong transaction pipeline.
"We are in it to win it together. In closing, I want to recognize our admired colleague, Pete Bolgarelli."
VTR WATCH
HIGH
15:00
Feb 06
OHI WELL VTR
Management explicitly noted that senior housing is attracting more competition as capital flows in, with a 'drifting down in cap rates' and recent acquisitions reported at sub-7%. However, they believe their scale, relationships (70%+ repeat operators, 50%+ repeat sellers), and operating platform give an advantage to continue sourcing deal flow at attractive risk-adjusted yields. — Shows that private market cap rates for senior housing are compressing, implying asset values are rising, which supports a bullish view on the sector and validates other senior housing REITs' asset pricing.
"Clearly, it hasn't slowed us down at all given how, you know, strongly we're positioned. There's a drifting down in cap rates. You can see it, you know, in our stuff."
OHI WATCH
Management reported that 2026 marked the beginning of their in-house rent optimization, with assumed in-house rent increases of 8%, up from 7% the previous year. They note that RevPAU is about two-thirds of the in-house rent increase, implying that revenue growth has a solid, predictable tailwind independent of occupancy growth. — This level of rent increase, not yet seen across the sector, suggests strong resident affordability and market power, which could signal a fundamental shift toward much higher top-line growth for the broader senior housing sector than previously forecast by other REITs and analysts.
"Clearly, it hasn't slowed us down at all given how, you know, strongly we're positioned. There's a drifting down in cap rates. You can see it, you know, in our stuff."
WELL WATCH
Strong secular demand and supply constraints drive long-term investor confidence in continued SHOP NOI growth; high-confidence acquisition pipeline reinforces the positive outlook.
"We expect SHOP to produce our fifth consecutive year of double-digit same-store cash NOI growth. with occupancy, rate, and margin, all showing healthy year-over-year increases."
VTR WATCH
HIGH