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14:00
Jul 30 ◎

VLO FY2026 Q2 Watch

Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) FY2026 Q2 Earnings Call

MPC PSX VLO ADM GPRE ▾

Gary Simmons

Global product inventories are expected to remain below the five-year average range through 2027 even if the current geopolitical conflicts end immediately, implying sustained tightness and elevated margins. — This suggests a prolonged period of high refining margins and continued pricing power for independent refiners.

"Their data would suggest that if the conflict were to end today, global inventories remain below the five-year average range through 2027."

MPC WATCH PSX WATCH

Lane Riggs

Management expresses a bullish outlook driven by tight global product inventories, limited excess refining capacity, and resilient demand, with a view that higher mid-cycle margins are structurally supported by evolving market dynamics.

"We're pleased to report a strong second quarter driven by exceptional operational and commercial performance across all three of our business segments."

VLO WATCH

Eric

The ethanol segment is benefiting from a production tax credit that adds ~$0.17/gallon in 2026 and ~$0.19/gallon through 2027-2029, nearly doubling mid-cycle margins, which is a significant structural tailwind not fully reflected in historical baseline. — This indicates strong pricing power and profitability for ethanol producers, potentially improving earnings for companies with significant exposure.

"It's 14 cents year to date, probably 17 cents for the full year. And if you look into 27 through 29, It's probably $0.19 a gallon. You put that in perspective with a historical mid-cycle of $0.25, that says that you're almost doubling the"

ADM WATCH GPRE WATCH

Eric

RIN bank is expected to be exhausted between end of 2026 and mid-2027, which could cause RIN prices to spike further, materially impacting fuel prices and potentially leading to policy intervention. — RIN price volatility is a key swing factor for fuel costs and policies, impacting renewable fuel producers and obligated parties.

"the bank being hit somewhere between the end of this year and sometime middle of next year, given the pace we're at"

DAR WATCH

HIGH

14:00
Apr 30 ◎

VLO FY2026 Q1 Watch

Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) FY2026 Q1 Earnings Call

VLO ▾

Lane Riggs

Management expects strong refining fundamentals to persist due to constrained global refining capacity and low inventories. The company is positioned to benefit from its feedstock flexibility and advantaged Gulf Coast location.

"Looking ahead, constrained global refining capacity and low product inventories in key markets should continue to support refining fundamentals."

VLO WATCH

HIGH

15:00
Jan 29 ◎

VLO FY2025 Q4 Watch

Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) FY2025 Q4 Earnings Call

VLO ▾

Gary Simmons

Management sees continued tight supply/demand in refining, driven by limited capacity additions, demand growth, and favorable crude differentials. They are more bullish than consultant data, expecting high execution risk on new capacity additions.

"I think, you know, a lot of what you saw in the fourth quarter was very strong margins and moderate temperatures. And so, you know, that allows you to kind of push refinery hardware a little bit harder than you normally could. I think"

VLO WATCH

HIGH

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