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08:30
Apr 23
PHM
Management reaffirmed full-year guidance and sees demand holding up despite geopolitical uncertainty, with bias to upside if rates decline. Order growth, spec reduction, and build-to-order shift underpin a cautiously positive outlook.
"I remain optimistic about long-term housing demand and confident about the strength of our business model."
PHM WATCH
HIGH
08:30
Jan 29
PHM LEN DHI NVR
Guidance implies slightly lower gross margins than 2025 due to elevated incentives and rising land costs, but community count growth and improved affordability offer a balanced outlook.
"We currently expect to realize gross margins of 24.5% to 25.0% for both the first quarter and for the full year of 2026, but recognize that the spring selling season will be a key driver of our financial results this year."
PHM WATCH
Management is shifting production mix toward build-to-order (60% BTO, 40% spec) after several years of 60% spec; spec inventory was reduced 18% year-over-year with finished specs at 2,000 units. — A higher BTO mix typically yields better gross margins and lower speculative risk, but can slow absorption pace; the industry may see similar shifts if builders reduce reliance on quick-move-in inventory.
"we do have the benefit of cycle times being back to pre-COVID level cycle times at around 100 days."
LEN WATCH DHI WATCH
Cycle times for single-family homes have normalized to approximately 100 days, enabling a faster build-to-order model and reduced need for speculative inventory. — Shortened cycle times allow builders to convert orders into closings more quickly, improving capital efficiency and reducing the carrying cost of work-in-process, which pressures industry-wide inventory management.
"we do have the benefit of cycle times being back to pre-COVID level cycle times at around 100 days."
NVR WATCH
HIGH
08:30
Oct 21
PHM
Management trimmed Q4 gross margin guidance slightly, reflecting higher incentives to move finished spec inventory and competitive market dynamics, but demand is stable and the company remains confident in its mix and operational flexibility.
"we now expect fourth quarter growth margins to be in the range of 25.5% to 26.0%."
PHM WATCH
HIGH