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12:30
Aug 07 ◎

KVUE FY2025 Q2 Watch

Kenvue Inc. (KVUE) FY2025 Q2 Earnings Call

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Amit Banati

Management delivered a clear negative tone, revising down full-year guidance due to declining organic sales, weakened categories, and persistent execution issues, indicating a deteriorating outlook for the remainder of 2025.

"We are revising our outlook for 2025 to reflect the year to date results as well as our current expectations for the second half, considering the dynamic external environment and underlying business fundamentals."

KVUE WATCH

Amit Banati

Kenvue's massive underperformance versus consumption (4.2% sales decline vs. positive consumption) implies retailers are aggressively destocking, which will pressure their wholesale partners' near-term revenue visibility. — The consumption-to-shipment gap indicates a channel-wide inventory correction, which could signal a temporary headwind for competitors relying on shipments to retailers for their own reported sales.

"global consumption grew year over year and outpaced organic sales across each segment."

CL WATCH

Kirk Perry

Despite a record-weak US allergy season, Zyrtec gained household penetration and share. This points to share gains coming from competitors, not category growth, putting pressure on rival allergy brands. — Zyrtec's share and penetration gains during a weak tide indicate it is taking share from competitors, signaling a negative trend for competing allergy franchises in the US.

"Zyrtec didn't just strengthen its leadership position, but also grew household penetration across both adult and children franchises."

CHF WATCH GSK WATCH

Amit Banati

Kenvue explicitly stated it is losing share in mouthwash because it is not playing strongly enough in the fastest-growing mild alcohol-free segment, a direct signal to competitors with strong offerings in that segment. — This admission provides a clear roadmap for competitors to double down on the alcohol-free oral care segment to entrench their share gains against Listerine.

"The key challenge our teams are addressing is on our portfolio mix where we are not playing strongly enough in the fastest growing mild alcohol free segment."

PG WATCH CLX WATCH

HIGH

12:00
May 08 ◎

KVUE FY2025 Q1 Watch

Kenvue Inc. (KVUE) FY2025 Q1 Earnings Call

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Thibaut Mongone

Kenvue's full exit from J&J's transition services agreements marks its independence, potentially freeing it from legacy overhead but also ending a revenue stream for J&J.

"In April, we reached a major operational milestone, completing our transition services agreement program, finalizing the exit of more than 2,300 TSAs as per plan and without any disruption to our business."

JNJ WATCH

Thibaut Mongone

The incoming CFO's history at Kellanova is mentioned in a Q&A; it's a reference to his background, not a statement about either company's current trajectory.

"he's probably most closely associated today with seeing Kellogg through the Kellenova WK Kellogg separation and the subsequent sale of Kellenova to Mars."

K WATCH

Thibaut Mongone

The incoming CFO's history at WK Kellogg is mentioned in a Q&A; it's a reference to his background, not a statement about either company's current trajectory.

"he's probably most closely associated today with seeing Kellogg through the Kellenova WK Kellogg separation and the subsequent sale of Kellenova to Mars."

KLG WATCH

Thibaut Mongone

Guidance was negatively revised for EPS and operating margin, now expected to be roughly flat or contract, primarily due to the estimated $150 million gross impact of tariffs. This negates the modest tailwind from a stronger dollar and signals a more cautious near-term outlook.

"we now expect adjusted diluted EPS for 2025 to be about flat versus last year."

KVUE WATCH

Thibaut Mongone

April US retail orders tightened, which combined with a delayed allergy/sun season, may shift volumes into later quarters. — This signals the consumer staples sector overall faces a near-term demand pull-forward/deferral dynamic, potentially pressuring H1 sales for peers while setting up a potentially stronger H2.

"from a macro point of view, we have seen some retailers tightening order management in April in the US. So these two factors may shift volumes from one quarter to the next."

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Thibaut Mongone

Consumption outpaced organic sales growth across all segments in Q1, driven by US price/trade investment, indicating Kenvue is gaining share and household penetration in the US despite retailer destocking. — This suggests the US price/trade investments are driving market share gains for Kenvue, indicating a competitive pricing response from Kenvue that could pressure US market share for peers like Church & Dwight and L'Oreal.

"from a macro point of view, we have seen some retailers tightening order management in April in the US. So these two factors may shift volumes from one quarter to the next."

PG WATCH CHD WATCH RELLY WATCH

HIGH

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