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20:30
Aug 12
NVDA COHR
Management stated there has been 'no push out of CPO demand' and seen an increase in demand over the last 3-6 months, with MPO engagements ramping, directly countering the recent market narrative of CPO delays or a shift to NPO. — Confirms that the immediate growth vector for optics is still pluggable transceivers/800G/1.6T, but the follow-on CPO/NPO wave is building. For Nvidia, which is promoting CPO for future racks, this is a positive signal.
"Our Texas facility has also begun ramping our ultra-high power CW laser for CPO solutions, including those covered by our NVIDIA partnership, with revenue expected to begin ramping in fiscal Q2."
NVDA WATCH
Guidance is exceptionally strong, with Q4 FY26 revenue at $2.05B and guidance implying a ~10-17% sequential increase into Q1 FY27, followed by a ramp to $3B+ by end of FY27 (~50% increase from Q4 exit rate). Management signals broad-based capacity constraints across datacom, with Indium Phosphide as the key bottleneck, and multiple new ramps (OCS, CPO, multirail, Thermodyte) contributing to growth and margin expansion.
"Having achieved our first $2 billion revenue quarter, we now expect to achieve our first quarter with over $3 billion of revenue by the end of fiscal 27."
COHR WATCH
HIGH
20:30
May 06
COHR ANET CSCO NVDA
Management's tone is increasingly bullish, with record backlog, orders into 2028, capacity ramps ahead of plan, and multiple new growth vectors (OCS, CPO, multirail) layering on top of the core transceiver business. Guidance implies accelerating growth and continued margin expansion.
"Customer demand remains exceptionally strong with no signs of attenuation, and our visibility continues to extend further into the future."
COHR WATCH
6-inch indium phosphide capacity ramp is ahead of schedule; the goal of doubling internal capacity will be reached one quarter earlier than planned, and capacity will more than double again by end of calendar 2027. — Resolution of the industry-wide InP constraint is a critical gating factor for 1.6T transceiver and CPO volumes, and Coherent's early ramp enables share gains at the expense of competitors reliant on external InP supply.
"We remain on track to achieve our goal of doubling internal indium phosphide output capacity by the end of this calendar year, and based on current execution, we now expect to reach that milestone one quarter earlier than originally"
ANET WATCH NVDA WATCH
Coherent resolved a production bottleneck in OCS systems, enabling rapid output ramp across two facilities. — OCS is a fast-growing high-value layer of AI networking; removing this bottleneck lets Coherent convert its record backlog and positions it to take share from incumbent OCS vendors.
"We recently resolved a bottleneck in our production capacity and are now ramping output rapidly across two production facilities."
CSCO WATCH
HIGH
21:30
Feb 04
COHR AVGO
Management is extremely bullish due to a 4x book-to-bill ratio, most of calendar 26 booked out, and significant capacity expansion (6-inch indium phosphide) that is ahead of schedule and reduces costs dramatically.
"we expect fiscal 27 revenue growth rate to exceed our fiscal 26 growth rate"
COHR WATCH
Coherent's ramp of 6-inch indium phosphide wafers produces over 4x the chips at less than half the cost of 3-inch wafers, creating a significant cost advantage that will drive gross margin expansion over the next year. — This scale-up in the industry's key bottleneck component gives Coherent a structural cost and supply advantage over competitors who remain on 3-inch wafers, pressuring competitors' margins on 800G and 1.6T transceivers.
"A 6-inch wafer compared to a 3-inch wafer will produce more than four times as many chips at less than half the cost."
AVGO WATCH
HIGH