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20:30
Aug 04 ◎

BKNG FY2026 Q2 Watch

Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) FY2026 Q2 Earnings Call

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Ewout Steenbergen

Management guides for stable Q3 growth (room nights 3-5%, gross bookings 4-6%) while acknowledging persistent headwinds from the Middle East conflict. They maintain full-year high single-digit growth expectations, with the primary downgrade being flight ticket growth. The tone is cautious but confident, reflecting resilience rather than acceleration.

"Our guidance assumes stability in the broader travel environment, in line with recent trends. It also assumes that the indirect impacts of the conflict, including elevated flight ticket prices, reduced flight capacity on certain routes,"

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Ewout Steenbergen

Booking is experiencing a modicum of traffic from large language models (LLMs), which is still significantly below 1% of room nights and hasn't changed much recently, but they are part of OpenAI's test group for CPC. — This indicates that the AI-driven booking channel is still nascent and not yet a significant competitive threat or opportunity for OTAs, but Booking's early CPC testing with OpenAI suggests a potential future direct advertising revenue stream for AI platforms.

"the traffic we're currently receiving from large language models, so this is not what we are receiving directly in terms of traffic but from large language models both on a paid and an unpaid basis that is still significantly below one"

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Ewout Steenbergen

Booking's second-quarter results were hurt by the Middle East conflict, particularly in airline capacity and flight ticket prices. However, they saw a normalization beginning in June that continued into July, with domestic and intra-regional travel remaining healthy. — This suggests that the negative impact of the Middle East conflict on global long-haul travel is diminishing, which could signal a recovery for airlines heavily exposed to international routes, though fuel costs remain a factor.

"the impact was actually a bit higher than in the first quarter because we saw the impact continuing in April and in May. But as we said, then in June, actually the situation started to normalize more and that continued in the month of July."

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HIGH

20:30
Apr 28 ◎

BKNG FY2026 Q1 Watch

Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) FY2026 Q1 Earnings Call

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Glenn Fogle

Booking is partnering with frontier AI labs to source demand and integrate AI into its platform, positioning these companies as key distribution partners for travel.

"Our relationships with companies such as OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, and Amazon combined with our disciplined approach, positions us well to capture these emerging opportunities"

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Glenn Fogle

Google serves as both an existing marketing partner and an emerging AI partner for Booking's demand generation and product strategy.

"Our relationships with companies such as OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, and Amazon combined with our disciplined approach, positions us well to capture these emerging opportunities"

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Glenn Fogle

Anthropic is named as a key AI partner, with Booking highlighting their collaboration in the Claude Live advertisement, indicating a deepening relationship.

"Our relationships with companies such as OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, and Amazon combined with our disciplined approach, positions us well to capture these emerging opportunities"

ANTHROPIC WATCH

Glenn Fogle

Amazon is mentioned alongside other AI leaders, implying a partnership in AI services and potentially cloud infrastructure.

"Our relationships with companies such as OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, and Amazon combined with our disciplined approach, positions us well to capture these emerging opportunities"

AMZN WATCH

Ewout Steenbergen

Management guidance is cautiously neutral, explicitly lowered for Q2 due to the Middle East conflict but maintains long-term growth ambitions assuming a recovery in the second half of the year.

"Our planning assumption is that the direct and indirect impact from the conflict in the Middle East continues through the end of June, followed by a recovery in bookings in the second half of the year."

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Ewout Steenbergen

The Middle East conflict is impacting transit corridors between Europe and Asia, a key indirect impact that affects broader travel patterns beyond the immediate region. — Disruption to this major flight corridor could redirect traffic and have second-order effects on carriers and travel-dependent industries.

"The impact of the conflict was also felt outside the Middle East region as we saw changes in broader travel patterns, particularly in transit corridors, such as the one between Europe and Asia."

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Glenn Fogle

Booking's U.S. room night growth accelerated for the fourth consecutive quarter to low teens, driven by gains in direct channels and cross-selling, indicating significant market share capture from other OTAs. — Sustained market share gains by Booking in the US, a key market for competitors, points to a structural shift in competitive dynamics.

"our U.S. room night growth accelerated for the fourth consecutive quarter to the low teens, driven primarily by strong domestic demand. We're also encouraged by the continued momentum of our direct channel in the U.S."

TRIP WATCH

Glenn Fogle

Major AI players are moving away from being booking agents towards performance marketing platforms, which Booking views as favorable, indicating a potential shift in the online travel agency (OTA) competitive landscape. — If AI platforms act primarily as marketers rather than transactional agents, it could reduce the disintermediation threat to OTAs and change the cost of customer acquisition.

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HIGH

21:30
Feb 18 ◎

BKNG FY2025 Q4 Watch

Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG) FY2025 Q4 Earnings Call

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Glenn Fogle

Booking is partnering with OpenAI to integrate agentic AI capabilities, positioning itself to capture demand from new AI-driven top-of-funnel entry points, though it remains early days.

"...in addition to continuing to collaborate with leading AI companies such as OpenAI, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and others."

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Glenn Fogle

Partnership with Microsoft is part of Booking's strategy to build agentic AI capabilities and remain at the forefront of AI innovation in travel.

"...continuing to collaborate with leading AI companies such as OpenAI, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and others."

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Glenn Fogle

Collaboration with Amazon is part of Booking's AI ecosystem strategy, though no specific details or impact were discussed on this call.

"...continuing to collaborate with leading AI companies such as OpenAI, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and others."

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Eivout Steenbergen

Despite a more modest Q1 2026 guidance (5-7% room night growth), management's full-year outlook is optimistic, targeting top-line growth ~100bps above their long-term algorithm of 8%, with margin expansion, driven by strategic reinvestments and a strong demand environment.

"We expect these initiatives to contribute approximately $400 million in incremental revenue in 2026, resulting in a net impact of about $300 million to adjusted EBITDA for the year."

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Glenn Fogle

Booking Holdings generated $16.8 billion in gross bookings from 68 million airline tickets in 2025, up 37% YoY, making it a major and rapidly growing distribution channel for airlines. — Booking's significant and fast-growing flight volume gives it increasing leverage in negotiations with airlines and signals a shift in how air travel is being distributed.

"For the full year, travelers booked 68 million airline tickets across our platforms, up 37% year-over-year, and represented gross bookings of $16.8 billion."

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Eivout Steenbergen

Rome nights for alternative accommodations (e.g., Vrbo competitors) grew ~10% in 2025, and management highlighted this segment as a key investment priority for 2026, indicating a continued competitive threat to Airbnb. — Booking is aggressively expanding its alternative accommodations supply (now 8.6M listings), directly competing with Airbnb for market share in this high-growth segment.

"For our alternative accommodations at booking.com, our full year room night growth was about 10%, including about 9% in the fourth quarter."

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Glenn Fogle

Booking's management signals that traditional Google search remains a healthy and profitable customer acquisition channel, indicating a continued positive relationship.

"...continuing to collaborate with leading AI companies such as OpenAI, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and others."

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Eivout Steenbergen

Bookings is investing in OpenTable's international expansion as a key strategic priority, which is expected to contribute to top-line growth.

"...expanding the open table dining network internationally."

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HIGH

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