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14:00
May 07 ◎

ATO FY2026 Q2 Watch

Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) FY2026 Q2 Earnings Call

ATO TRGP WMB ▾

Kevin Akers

Management raised fiscal 2026 EPS guidance, citing stronger-than-expected APT through-system revenues (due to favorable natural gas spreads) and higher-than-planned benefits from Texas Rule 77-102. This indicates an improving earnings outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year, driven by market dynamics and regulatory tailwinds.

"We updated our earnings per share guidance range to $8.40 to $8.50."

ATO WATCH

Chris Forsyth

APT's through-system revenues are benefiting from higher natural gas basis spreads, which are being driven by rising associated gas production, constrained takeaway capacity, and lower demand due to warm weather. Management expects this to add an additional $0.08-$0.12 to fiscal 2026 EPS in the second half. — This indicates a tightening natural gas takeaway market in the Permian Basin (Waha), which is a positive pricing signal for midstream companies with capacity on pipes leaving the basin (e.g., TRGP, WMB) and a negative signal for those with gathering/processing assets long on gas.

"The spreads we captured averaged $4.35 compared to $1.80 in the prior year period, reflecting rising associated with gas production, constrained takeaway capacity, and lower demand due to unseasonally warm weather during this past winter"

TRGP WATCH WMB WATCH

HIGH

14:00
Feb 04 ◎

ATO FY2026 Q1 Watch

Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) FY2026 Q1 Earnings Call

ATO ET TRP WMB OKE ▾

Chris Forsythe

Management reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 guidance range ($8.15-$8.35) and $4.2B capex plan, citing strong rate case execution, customer growth, and robust APT spreads. They struck a cautious tone on annualizing the HB 4384 benefit but remain confident in the full-year range.

"Our first quarter performance is well positioned to achieve a rebased fiscal 26 earnings per share guidance in the range of $8.15 to $8.35 per share. and we remain on track to achieve a capital spending plan of $4.2 billion."

ATO WATCH

Chris Forsythe

Atmos' APT division saw average spreads widen to $3.99 in Q1 FY26 (vs $1.56 a year prior) despite a ~2 Bcf volume decline, driven by rising associated gas production, constrained takeaway capacity, and warm weather demand destruction. This indicates significant Permian takeaway constraints continue to pressure Waha prices. — The persistent Waha basis blowout signals the need for incremental Permian takeaway capacity (pipelines like ET's projects) to resolve, but also implies volatile and lucrative trading opportunities for those with existing capacity.

"However, spreads widened significantly to an average of $3.99 compared to $1.56 in the prior year quarter due to rising associated gas production, constrained takeaway capacity, and lower demand due to unseasonally warm weather during the"

ET WATCH TRP WATCH WMB WATCH

Kevin Akers

Atmos' new 36-inch pipeline segment from Bethel storage provides additional capacity into the DFW Metroplex, indicating proactive infrastructure additions to meet sustained, strong customer growth (54k net adds over 12 months, mostly in Texas). — This pipeline expansion addresses the rapid demand growth in north Texas and positions Atmos' own infrastructure as a key enabler for future power generation/data center load additions in the region.

"Finally, we enhanced APT supply optionality, reliability, and system versatility with the completion of two interconnect projects, adding 700,000 MCF per day of additional natural gas supply to the APT system."

OKE WATCH

HIGH

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