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22:30
Sep 04
Sep 04
BNO 1ST
UNG 1ST
LNG 1ST
DBA 1ST
Ammonia 1ST
▾
HIGH
Hormuz disruption keeps oil supply tight.
The Strait of Hormuz is the main export gate for Gulf oil. The 2026 conflict collapsed tanker traffic from about 138 ships per day to 20 without a physical blockade, driven by war-risk insurance repricing. Alternative Saudi and UAE pipelines can only bypass a fraction of the roughly 20 million barrels per day that normally cross Hormuz, and the US energy agency does not expect Middle East production to return near pre-conflict levels before early 2027. Brent returned above $92 in this setup.
BNO LONG
Hormuz removal causes global LNG shortages.
About one-fifth of global LNG trade passes through Hormuz, mainly from Qatar and the UAE. Unlike oil, there is no large pipeline system capable of quickly moving that gas to a terminal outside the Gulf. The 2026 crisis removed close to 20% of world LNG supply at certain moments, raised gas costs in Europe, and caused one of the largest disruptions ever observed in the LNG market.
UNG LONG
LNG LONG
Urea prices surge after Hormuz disruption.
The Gulf is a major exporter of ammonia, urea, sulfur, methanol and other agricultural/chemical inputs. The Hormuz crisis interrupted these flows, and because natural gas is the key feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer, higher gas costs tend to push urea and ammonia prices higher. Brazilian urea import prices rose about 76% between early January and March 19, 2026, and producer-paid urea costs rose about 40% during the conflict.
DBA LONG
Ammonia LONG
MOO LONG
HIGH
01:00
Sep 04
Sep 04
BOVA11.SA 1ST
▾
HIGH
Brazilian large caps entering restructuring stress
Daniel Palaia argues that Brazil's credit cycle has already worsened for households and small/mid-sized companies and is now starting to hit large companies. He expects a sequence of large Brazilian companies to face restructuring or default as operational results begin to deteriorate, after years of high interest expense consuming cash. The fiscal side keeps activity strong and prevents the central bank from cutting rates, so high rates, credit restriction, and restructuring pressure should be prolonged. This makes broad Brazilian large-cap equities unattractive or risky over the cycle.
BOVA11.SA AVOID
HIGH
00:00
Sep 04
Sep 04
Bancos brasileiros
—
Agronegócio brasileiro
▾
HIGH
Bancos enfrentam deterioração de crédito severa
Os balanços dos bancos brasileiros mostram preocupação unânime com o mercado de crédito e expectativa de segundo semestre bastante ruim. Há piora crescente da alavancagem e da cobertura de juros das empresas, aceleração da inadimplência de curto prazo na maioria dos bancos, e o crescimento explosivo do crédito consignado privado reduz o caixa disponível para pagar cartão de crédito e outras dívidas, pressionando a qualidade do crédito.
Bancos brasileiros AVOID
Fiagros mal originados expõem crédito agro
Fiagros concederam crédito a milhares de empresas do agronegócio por meio de gestores sem especialização no setor, em um período de juros baixos e aceleração da concessão. Isso gerou má origem de crédito e exposição a um segmento com governança frágil e liquidez baixa, o que pode resultar em perdas.
— AVOID
Agro enfrenta tempestade perfeita de crédito
O agronegócio brasileiro passa por uma tempestade perfeita: má concessão de crédito, alavancagem tomada em juros baixos, explosão dos custos de insumos, queda dos preços de commodities, quebras de safra e problemas climáticos, margens baixas e ciclo de safra que só permite pagar dívidas na safra seguinte. Isso se soma a empresas familiares com pouca governança e elevou as recuperações judiciais no setor.
Agronegócio brasileiro AVOID
HIGH
21:00
Sep 03
Sep 03
USD
US market
▾
HIGH
Diversify Brazilian portfolios into US assets
Brazilian investors should reduce home bias and dolarize part of their portfolios by using the Nômade platform to access the US market, including US fixed income, equities, and other dollar-denominated assets, gaining exposure to a strong currency and diversification outside Brazil.
USD LONG
US market LONG
HIGH
01:00
Sep 03
Sep 03
Crédito privado brasileiro
Debêntures brasileiras
CRA/CRI de pessoa física
Debêntures de varejo
Bancos brasileiros
▾
HIGH
Crédito privado brasileiro tem expansão estrutural.
O mercado de crédito privado brasileiro passou por forte desintermediação bancária, saindo de cerca de 70 debêntures em 2014 para mais de 2.000 papéis, com expansão de fundos de crédito, FIDCs, CRAs, CRIs e outros instrumentos. Em um país historicamente de juros altos, o crédito aparece como a classe com maior potencial de crescimento, oferecendo risco intermediário entre o soberano e a renda variável, menor volatilidade e demanda crescente, sobretudo após 2021 com a migração de investidores que saíram de multimercados e ações.
Crédito privado brasileiro LONG
Debêntures brasileiras LONG
Pessoa física sofre haircut maior em RJ.
Nas recuperações judiciais brasileiras, a parte mais fragilizada é a classe pulverizada, especialmente pessoas físicas detentoras de CRAs, CRIs e debêntures, porque têm dificuldade de organização e pouco poder de negociação. No caso Pão de Açúcar, essas pessoas físicas receberam haircut muito maior que os bancos. Quem não comparece à assembleia de credores acaba sendo o mais prejudicado, e o DIP financing acentua essa assimetria ao permitir que bancos aportem dinheiro novo em troca de condições mais vantajosas.
CRA/CRI de pessoa física AVOID
Debêntures de varejo AVOID
Bancos se beneficiam em recuperações judiciais.
No atual ciclo de recuperações judiciais, os bancos são os grandes beneficiados porque têm maior poder de negociação e capacidade de fazer DIP financing, aportando dinheiro novo em troca de pacotes de reestruturação mais vantajosos e haircuts menores em relação aos credores pulverizados.
Bancos brasileiros LONG
HIGH
00:00
Sep 03
Sep 03
Brazilian leveraged corporate credit
Brazilian corporate credit spreads
▾
HIGH
Juros altos prolongados quebram empresas alavancadas.
O problema brasileiro não é principalmente o nível de alavancagem das empresas, mas o custo da dívida. Com o crédito livre PJ médio ao redor de 25% ao ano, uma empresa alavancada quatro vezes dívida líquida sobre geração de caixa operacional consome 100% dessa geração apenas com juros. Juros altos acima de 12% a 13% mantidos por muito tempo, sem previsibilidade de queda para abaixo de 10%, fazem cada vez mais empresas de diversos setores ficarem pelo caminho.
Brazilian leveraged corporate credit AVOID
Spreads de crédito subestimados podem explodir.
O principal risco no mercado de crédito é a subestimação dos spreads. Investidores sistematicamente subestimam o risco, mantendo spreads muito baixos até surgir um problema; quando aparece notícia negativa, o movimento vira pânico e os spreads abrem 500 a 1000 pontos-base. Esse nível de spreads parece subestimado e é o principal risco atual.
Brazilian corporate credit spreads WATCH
HIGH
21:00
Sep 02
Sep 02
China manufacturing
KRE 1ST
BAIDU 1ST
China humanoid robotics
REMX 1ST
▾
HIGH
China remains the world's factory.
China became the factory of the world after Deng Xiaoping introduced market reforms and created the Shenzhen special economic zone, using extremely cheap labor to make it cheaper to produce in China and ship globally. After the real estate reset, Beijing explicitly refocused on being the factory of the world; in 2025 China's export surplus reached USD 1.2 trillion even as sales to the United States fell 20%.
China manufacturing LONG
China property boom ended.
Chinese real estate reached 20-25% of GDP and produced ghost cities, but that model ended. The government's three red lines policy caused construction and sales to fall sharply, deliberately resetting the property market before a bubble burst and shifting focus back to manufacturing.
KRE AVOID
WeChat wins; Baidu fell behind.
China's internet runs on local super apps: WeChat is years ahead of WhatsApp and search has moved inside WeChat, Xiaohongshu and Douyin instead of a standalone Google equivalent. Baidu was left behind in search, once the best business, while Tencent and Alibaba compare far better by market value.
BAIDU AVOID
TCEHY LONG
China leads robotics adoption.
China's demographic collapse, with deaths exceeding births since 2022 and population projected to halve, drives a robotics and AI reorganization of work. China already has more industrial robots installed than the rest of the world combined, and Chinese firms Unitree and Agibot are the largest humanoid robot sellers globally; humanoids fit a world designed for humans.
China humanoid robotics LONG
China controls rare earth processing.
Rare earth processing is costly, polluting and dominated by China, making it a strategic weapon. China has already used rare earth restrictions in the recent past, and some US factories cannot produce vehicles, aircraft and other items without these materials.
REMX LONG
China soy dependence is fragile.
Brazil sends more than two-thirds of its soybean exports to China, and China gets about 70% of its soybean imports from Brazil. If China stopped buying, no other country has the same appetite, world soybean prices would collapse, and Brazil would face a major crisis.
SOYB WATCH
Tesla value may come from robots.
Elon Musk says 80% of Tesla's market value will eventually come from Tesla's humanoid robots. Geromel adds that historically it has been wrong to bet against Elon Musk, making Tesla a humanoid-robot optionality idea.
TSLA LONG
HIGH
00:30
Sep 02
Sep 02
BABA 1ST
▾
MED
Chinese state control creates Alibaba shareholder risk
Chinese state control directly creates shareholder and governance risk in Chinese big tech: after Jack Ma said the government should reduce control of Chinese big tech to compete with American tech, he disappeared, and Alibaba changed its statute so the maximum any investor can hold is 7% of its shares. This illustrates that China's execution capacity comes with political control that many Western investors would not accept.
BABA AVOID
MED
23:30
Sep 01
Sep 01
Petróleo
Estreito de Ormuz
Baterias 1ST
ICLN 1ST
▾
MED
Persian Gulf oil risk premium persists.
O regime iraniano identificou a economia americana como centro de gravidade e se preparou para usar o Estreito de Ormuz como instrumento de pressão. Embora ele não acredite em ruptura total do fornecimento de petróleo porque produtores e dealers já se adaptam e a China não quer recessão global, o Golfo Pérsico deixou de ser um fornecedor confiável e a dependência desse petróleo virou risco geopolítico, o que deve manter prêmio de risco e volatilidade no petróleo.
Petróleo WATCH
Estreito de Ormuz WATCH
Alternatives to oil will grow.
Como o petróleo do Golfo Pérsico deixou de ser confiável e representa risco geopolítico, é preciso buscar alternativas ao petróleo; fontes alternativas vão surgir e baterias/eletrificação devem crescer cada vez mais, favorecendo o setor de energia alternativa e eletrificação.
Baterias LONG
ICLN LONG
MED
23:10
Sep 01
Sep 01
POLYMARKET
Turkish interest rates
EEM
EWJ 1ST
EUR 1ST
▾
HIGH
Brazil election has two mispriced asymmetries
Maurício vê duas assimetrias na eleição brasileira de 2026: o mercado precifica Lula como favorito, mas a eleição está 'pau a pau' por causa do teto de popularidade, da abstenção que penaliza o PT e da disputa por 3-4 pontos de eleitores; e o primeiro turno é tratado como cauda quando é possível para os dois lados. Se houver segundo turno, Flávio Bolsonaro tende a virar favorito, pois o PT não terá mercado de votos.
POLYMARKET WATCH
Erdogan win meant long Turkish rates
Na eleição da Turquia, apesar de o mercado apostar na oposição, a visita de campo mostrou a máquina de Erdogan forte demais; o fundo posicionou-se na vitória de Erdogan e capturou a curva de juros, que foi para a lua.
Turkish interest rates LONG
Emerging elections offer better asymmetry opportunities
Mercados emergentes oferecem mais assimetrias em eventos eleitorais do que mercados desenvolvidos, porque há menos concorrência de investidores; cita Turquia, Argentina, Índia, África do Sul, Colômbia, Peru e Equador.
EEM WATCH
LDP majority meant long Japan assets
Na eleição japonesa, Maurício antecipou que Takaichi mobilizaria eleitores jovens e mulheres e daria maioria absoluta ao LDP; montou posição comprada em bolsa e moeda japonesas, que gerou ganhos até ser atingida pelo ataque de Trump ao Irã.
EWJ LONG
FXY LONG
Orbán defeat meant long Europe assets
Na Hungria, Maurício avaliou que a oposição tinha vantagem grande demais para ser revertida por fraude ou intervenção e montou posição comprada em bolsa europeia e euro, apostando que a saída de Orbán seria positiva para a União Europeia.
EUR LONG
VGK LONG
Keiko win meant long Peru equities
Na eleição do Peru, pesquisas localizadas mostraram Keiko Fujimori reduzindo diferenças em redutos onde havia perdido por pouco; o fundo comprou ações peruanas apostando na vitória da candidata de direita.
Peruvian equities LONG
Milei win meant long Argentina assets
Na Argentina de 2023, após Sérgio Massa passar em primeiro turno e o mercado estressar, Maurício manteve 'Milei all the way'; a posição foi vencedora e o fundo se destacou na Argentina em 2023 e 2025.
ARGT LONG
HIGH
23:30
Aug 31
Aug 31
WTI 1ST
SMH 1ST
▾
MED
High oil for long pressures inflation/rates.
The Gulf conflict is not a temporary event but one symptom of a broader geopolitical moment that will stay for a long time, implying persistent conflict risk and a structural source of oil supply-risk headlines.
WTI LONG
Semiconductors are America's protected strategic advantage.
The US has made microchips the central front of the US-China dispute because it sees the sector as its decisive advantage and will not let China close the gap; this makes semiconductors a strategically protected area in US-China competition.
SMH LONG
MED
22:49
Aug 31
Aug 31
EWZ 1ST
Brazilian Interest Rates
Brazilian fiscal adjustment optionality (convexity hedge)
Flávio Bolsonaro 2026 election contract (Polymarket)
AIQ 1ST
▾
HIGH
Brazil's fiscal path is unsustainable.
Brazil has a structural fiscal problem: with real interest rates near 8% and trend growth around 2%, debt/GDP rises about 5 percentage points per year unless large primary surpluses are generated. The current government destroyed the primary surplus, raised spending faster than revenue, and produced core inflation near 4.8%, creating a fiscal-monetary conflict and rising crisis risk.
EWZ AVOID
Brazilian rates are the adjustment variable.
In Brazil's current fiscal-inflation setup, the main adjustment variable should be interest rates, not the currency or inflation. If there is no fiscal adjustment, rates may have to rise very sharply, becoming highly disruptive to companies, families, and the government.
Brazilian Interest Rates WATCH
Buy convexity for Brazil fiscal adjustment.
Because he sees a very high probability of no fiscal adjustment in Brazil, he prefers to buy optionality/convexity that benefits from a fiscal adjustment and protects against the baseline non-adjustment scenario. He says the risk setup is concave, so convex hedges make sense.
Brazilian fiscal adjustment optionality (convexity hedge) LONG
Opposition win is underpriced by markets.
Lula is practically unelectable on fundamentals and has a given high rejection, while Flávio is the main alternative. Polls undercounted Bolsonaro in 2022, and with Lula as the only left candidate, there is a high chance of power alternation. Polymarket still shows too wide a gap favoring Lula.
Flávio Bolsonaro 2026 election contract (Polymarket) LONG
AI capex is a historic supercycle.
The U.S. is experiencing a historic AI investment wave: AI capex already exceeds the Pentagon budget and major historical projects such as Apollo and Manhattan, while U.S. productivity growth has tripled the prior decade's average. This supports AI infrastructure as a powerful spending cycle.
AIQ LONG
Fed credibility lowers long U.S. yields.
Contrary to the consensus that a more hawkish Fed without forward guidance is automatically bad for long bonds, if the Fed credibly confronts inflation and the market believes it, long-end U.S. yields could fall. Therefore long U.S. duration can benefit from the opposite of the expected reaction.
TLT LONG
HIGH
21:00
Aug 30
Aug 30
NU 1ST
ITUB4.SA
BBDC4.SA
BBAS3.SA
Brazilian banks
▾
HIGH
Nubank's cheap deposits fund resilient growth.
A Ibiuna tem Nubank como única posição no setor bancário. O banco entregou resultado forte, com receitas crescendo, provisionamento controlado e inadimplência razoável para o segmento. Tem depósitos de baixa sensibilidade à informação, como as caixinhas, e relação crédito/depósitos de cerca de 70%, contra 100-140% de concorrentes, o que dá folga para crescer a carteira usando funding barato e ganhar mercado mesmo em cenário de crédito desafiador.
NU LONG
Itaú quality justifies premium valuation.
Itaú segue se destacando por seriedade, visão de mercado e resultados robustos, com retorno sobre patrimônio perto de 25% e decisões difíceis de longo prazo vistas como corretas, como reduzir tarifas para tirar atrito com o cliente. O valuation é um pouco mais premiado que Bradesco e Banco do Brasil, em torno de 1,7x book, mas o prêmio não é excessivo; mesmo assim, a Ibiuna está cautelosa com bancos no ciclo de crédito atual.
ITUB4.SA WATCH
Bradesco transformation good; re-rating lacks catalyst.
A transformação do Bradesco sob Marcelo Noronha foi excepcional, com mudança cultural, de estatuto e reposicionamento de marca, elevando o ROE de cerca de 8-9% para cerca de 15%. Porém, a próxima perna de melhora exige mais apetite a risco, o que não é ideal no momento de crédito mais desafiador. Por isso, o papel tende a permanecer perto de 1x book por mais tempo, embora pareça barato e sem grande solavanco esperado de resultado.
BBDC4.SA WATCH
Banco do Brasil recovery looks slow/gradual.
O Banco do Brasil está em processo de saneamento da carteira agro, que cresceu cerca de três vezes mais que as demais entre 2021 e 2023 e gerou a atual ressaca de inadimplência. A recuperação deve ser lenta e gradual, sem recuperação em V, e a desaceleração do crescimento de várias carteiras tende a limitar o crescimento de resultado. O papel é barato, mas é eleitoralmente sensível e depende da solução para as dívidas do agro.
BBAS3.SA WATCH
Consignado CLT growth is key bank risk.
O consignado CLT é hoje o crédito que mais chama atenção: cresceu cerca de 140% ano contra ano e o estoque de créditos inadimplidos subiu cerca de 220%, enquanto a inadimplência fica mascarada pelo forte crescimento da carteira. Como essa linha é diretamente vinculada ao emprego formal, um aumento relevante do desemprego tornaria as carteiras de pessoa física dos bancos muito mais sensíveis, justificando monitoramento do setor bancário.
Brazilian banks WATCH
HIGH
20:00
Aug 29
Aug 29
VT 1ST
▾
HIGH
Own good global equities, not just Brazil
Equities are by definition global assets, so it does not make sense for an equity investor to hold only Brazilian stocks. The right way to invest in equities is to own good companies from around the world, regardless of where the investor lives; geographic segmentation makes sense for credit and government bonds, but not for equities.
VT LONG
HIGH
01:00
Aug 29
Aug 29
GE
BOVA11.SA
▾
HIGH
Vender vencedores quando retorno esperado cai
Cristiano Souza defende que a venda deve ser uma decisão quase matemática: quando uma ação sobe a ponto de negociar com retorno esperado menor que o mínimo exigido para aquele negócio, e após verificar que os fundamentos não mudaram, é preciso vender ou reduzir a posição. Ele usa a GE Aerospace como exemplo: era uma das maiores posições do fundo, com negócio excepcional e Larry Culp, mas após subir cerca de 80% em um ano o retorno esperado caiu abaixo de seu piso, levando à venda por disciplina e não por deterioração de fundamentos.
GE AVOID
Cuidado com extrapolação na bolsa Brasil
Ele alerta que a bolsa brasileira em 2019/2021 vivia forte euforia com mercado subindo, IPOs e investidores entrando, e vê o mesmo comportamento no início de 2025. Como o mundo é um sistema adaptativo complexo e as coisas mudam de formas imprevisíveis, é preciso ter muito cuidado ao extrapolar o momento presente para decisões de longo prazo.
BOVA11.SA WATCH
HIGH
23:00
Aug 28
Aug 28
BR_CDI
EWZ FLIP
Debêntures incentivadas
▾
HIGH
Don't concentrate in short-term government bonds.
Se o investidor, por medo de drawdown e comparação com o CDI, colocar todo o dinheiro em empréstimos de curto prazo ao governo, ficará refém de uma única classe de ativos; essa não é a forma correta de alocar capital para construir patrimônio de longo prazo.
BR_CDI AVOID
Avoid 90% Brazil concentration; diversify globally.
Não faz sentido uma família brasileira ter 90% do patrimônio investido no Brasil; para perenizar e crescer patrimônio de longo prazo é preciso diversificar globalmente, libertando-se do Brasil sem abandoná-lo, com o Brasil cumprindo apenas um papel em uma carteira de asset allocation.
EWZ AVOID
Limit incentivized debenture allocation.
Os distribuidores brasileiros concentram a venda em debêntures incentivadas; embora esses papéis tenham papel em carteira, não podem dominar o portfólio de famílias que buscam construir valor de longo prazo, e essa concentração é prejudicial.
Debêntures incentivadas AVOID
HIGH
10:44
Aug 28
Aug 28
BATTERIES 1ST
ITA 1ST
EWT
WTI
SMH
▾
HIGH
Alternatives to oil must grow.
In response to structural geopolitical oil risk, alternatives to oil must grow. The speaker believes batteries and electrification will increasingly replace oil in energy, even though oil remains important for sectors such as plastics.
BATTERIES LONG
Brazil must build modern defense capability.
In a law-of-the-jungle world, Brazil must treat defense as insurance. Modern war has shown cheaper systems such as drones and hypersonic missiles can deter stronger enemies; Brazil is already developing hypersonic missiles and needs centralized planning to prioritize drones and sensors. This should support Brazil's defense industrial base and qualified jobs.
ITA LONG
Taiwan invasion is only matter of time.
Xi Jinping will invade Taiwan; it is only a matter of time because territorial integrity after the century of humiliation is central to CCP legitimacy. China is expanding its nuclear arsenal to deter US intervention, and Washington is unlikely to risk nuclear war over Taiwan.
EWT WATCH
Gulf oil reliability is gone.
The Strait of Hormuz conflict is part of the new law-of-the-jungle world. Iran prepared to target the US center of gravity—oil and the US economy—by threatening the Strait, but China buys 80% of Iranian oil and does not want a global recession, and producers/dealers are adapting, so a total supply rupture is unlikely. Still, Gulf oil can no longer be treated as a reliable supplier, making oil dependence a structural geopolitical risk and forcing a search for alternatives.
WTI WATCH
Supply-chain geopolitics now hits semiconductors.
Geopolitical risk has shifted from war to supply-chain disruption, especially in microchips and communications. The US is already blocking deals that involve Chinese hardware, such as a Chile-China submarine cable, an Argentine data-center GPU purchase, and Brazilian AI projects. Investors need to map where US-China competition can cut their upstream or downstream supply chains.
SMH WATCH
HIGH
23:30
Aug 27
Aug 27
BOVA11.SA 1ST
Brazilian Interest Rates
Brazilian capital markets
Brazilian small and mid-cap companies
Brazilian alternative assets
▾
HIGH
Brazil faces serious fiscal and credit risks.
Brazil is a large, diversified economy and will not disappear, but it is accumulating a fiscal and interest-rate bill that must be faced. With high real rates and expanding public spending, the country cannot prosper, and relevant Brazilian companies are already failing at a scale not seen since the 1980s.
BOVA11.SA AVOID
Brazilian rates need to fall.
The biggest factor for Brazilian growth and income distribution is the interest rate. Brazil cannot prosper under the current high real rate regime with expanding public spending; it needs fiscal policy that allows the yield curve to descend quickly so credit can recover and corporate leverage pressure can ease.
Brazilian Interest Rates WATCH
Lower rates could revive Brazilian alternatives.
Lower interest rates would push investors out of SELIC and NTN-B into risk diversification, fostering alternative assets and allowing Brazil's capital markets to reopen for new issuances after being closed for about four years.
Brazilian capital markets WATCH
Brazilian alternative assets WATCH
Brazilian small and mid-caps face credit stress.
The prolonged high-rate environment is producing corporate distress not seen since the 1980s. If large Brazilian companies are failing at this scale, small and mid-sized Brazilian companies are likely suffering even more, especially because leverage above 2x is often unsustainable in Brazil.
Brazilian small and mid-cap companies AVOID
HIGH
22:45
Aug 25
Aug 25
Market Makers
10d
BBAS3.SA
Dívida Raízen
Crédito corporativo brasileiro
EMB 1ST
EWZ 1ST
▾
HIGH
Watch Banco do Brasil agro losses
Banco do Brasil has large agro credit exposure and is facing a credit cycle worse than average in severity and size; equity holders should watch how long losses and pressure on earnings last, even though large banks have solid capital.
BBAS3.SA WATCH
Buy distressed debt after panic selling
After a negative credit event, forced and panic selling pushes distressed debt below conservative recovery value; Raízen traded at around 20% of par after its event versus his conservative fair value of 40-50, so he bought post-event.
Dívida Raízen LONG
High rates break leveraged Brazilian companies
Brazilian companies borrowed aggressively when SELIC was 2.25% during COVID, then rates reaccelerated and stayed high; with average corporate credit rates near 25%, a 3-4x leveraged company can spend roughly 100% of operating cash flow on interest, making high rates for a long time the main trigger for the wave of judicial recoveries.
Crédito corporativo brasileiro AVOID
Brazilian credit spreads look too low
Credit investors systematically underestimate default risk, so Brazilian credit spreads stay very low until problems appear and then blow out 500-1000 bps; today's spread level looks underestimated.
EMB AVOID
Favor defensive Brazilian credit sectors
In the current challenging cycle he is reducing risk and favoring defensive credit sectors linked to concessions: electric utilities, sanitation, telecom and banks, because they have longer-dated debt, more stable cash generation and historically lower defaults than retail and other cyclical sectors.
EWZ LONG
Saneamento brasileiro LONG
Telecom brasileiro LONG
Bancos brasileiros LONG
Braskem distressed debt offers tactical opportunities
Braskem saw desperate selling at around 25% of par and he generated some gains trading it; the case still has uncertainty but is now better priced and offers periodic tactical opportunities.
Braskem dívida WATCH
Iguá debt became attractive after panic
Iguá Saneamento's accounting disclosure failure generated market panic and its debt widened from roughly CDI+3 to CDI+10; with good concessions and strong shareholders, the debt paid for the risk, so he traded it tactically.
Iguá Saneamento dívida LONG
Fiagro credit risk is hidden
Fiagro funds packaged agro credit that shows near-zero volatility and is tax-exempt, but the underlying loans were originated by Faria Lima managers without agro expertise and lack secondary market pricing, hiding the true risk.
BRCR11.SA AVOID
Avoid banks concentrated in payroll loans
Banks that accelerated credit and now have concentrated books in private payroll loans show very high returns, but the product is untested in a downturn and concentrating in one mono-line product is a poor credit strategy.
Bancos de consignado privado AVOID
Agro credit faces a perfect storm
Agribusiness credit combines poor origination, cheap COVID-era borrowing, overinvestment, input-cost explosion, falling crop prices, weather shocks and weak governance, driving a 22% year-over-year rise in judicial recoveries in 1Q26.
Crédito agro Brasil AVOID
HIGH
23:05
Aug 24
Aug 24
Market Makers
11d
EWZ
NTN-B 1ST
FXI
BRL
▾
HIGH
Brazil growth likely weak in 2027.
Brazil faces a likely sharp slowdown in 2027 because election-year fiscal impulse of 3-4% of GDP fades, household and corporate balance sheets remain stressed after the rates cycle, and the central bank cannot ease aggressively due fiscal uncertainty; he sees a possible difficult year resembling 2015-16 if global conditions also deteriorate.
EWZ WATCH
Brazil long bonds still price fiscal risk.
Brazilian long-dated local government bonds are pricing a large fiscal risk premium and are not repricing the Selic cutting cycle: NTN-Bs trade around 8-9% and nominal long bonds above 14-15%. Tony argues that without a credible fiscal trajectory this premium is unlikely to fall because the market is pricing a probability that fiscal imbalances are eventually resolved via inflation.
NTN-B AVOID
China crisis would hit Brazil hard.
A China crisis is the main global fear and Brazil is highly exposed to the Chinese economy; he recalls that the July 2015 renminbi devaluation contributed to deepening Brazil's recession and warns a new China shock could hit Brazil hard.
FXI WATCH
Aggressive BC cuts would weaken BRL.
The Brazilian central bank is trapped: if it cuts the Selic aggressively without addressing the fiscal problem, the market will not pass the easing through the curve and the exchange rate will likely jump, so BRL weakness is a key risk tied to premature easing.
BRL WATCH
HIGH
21:00
Aug 23
Aug 23
Market Makers
12d
MGLU3.SA
Chinese artificial intelligence
GWM 1ST
TCL 1ST
BGI Genomics
▾
HIGH
Cheap Chinese models make Magalu AI viable
Fred says Magalu's e-commerce AI agent will consume 5 trillion tokens this year. Magalu uses expensive paid American models where necessary and Chinese open-source models for more basic responses; the Chinese models are nearly as good and cost practically nothing or a fraction of American models. He states that if Magalu used only American models for those 5 trillion tokens, the Magalu business model would not stand, making cheap Chinese open-source AI a critical cost and viability edge.
MGLU3.SA LONG
Chinese AI wins via cheap models
Geromel argues the SaaS subscription model never took hold in China; Chinese companies instead built an open-source, low-cost software culture. He notes that recently more tokens from Chinese companies were consumed than from American companies, even in Silicon Valley, and that among the world's 100 largest AI clients more than half are Chinese, while only four of the top 100 by AI revenue are Chinese. The implication is that China is playing a long-term adoption and scale game rather than near-term monetization, making Chinese AI models almost as good as US models but far cheaper.
Chinese artificial intelligence LONG
BYD and GWM lead through efficiency
Fred argues China is so efficient it does not need tariff advantages, yet in Brazil Chinese cross-border e-commerce sellers and electric vehicle kits are taxed less than imports by Brazilian retailers or kits of regular engines. This 'injusta' competition, combined with brutal domestic competition in China, makes Chinese EVs such as BYD and GWM exceptionally competitive; he notes these previously unknown brands are already leading in Brazil.
GWM LONG
1211.HK LONG
Chinese electronics match quality at lower prices
Fred says the shift in perception of Chinese products mirrors what happened with Korean brands like Samsung and LG. Today Chinese engineering has reached Korean and sometimes above-Japanese quality: TCL 115-inch TVs match top Korean image quality, Huawei's triple-screen foldable is impressive, and Chinese brands bring accessible prices because of brutal domestic competition / involução. Brazilian consumers are open to switching, and Chinese brands are also succeeding in cars, electronics, sneakers and cosmetics.
TCL LONG
BGI disrupts Illumina with cheaper sequencing
Geromel says sequencing a person's DNA cost around $1000 twenty years ago, $500 today and will soon cost near $100. The world's largest sequencing company, Illumina, is being disrupted by China's BGI Beijing Genomics Institute, whose genetic sequencing machines are much cheaper and better than Illumina's materials. BGI began sweeping the world, but the US government banned it from the American market, which Geromel frames as protecting US corporate health rather than public health. He says Brazilian health executives are already looking to China as a health model, calling it a coming tsunami.
BGI Genomics LONG
ILMN AVOID
China leads industrial and humanoid robotics
Fred observes that supplier factories in China are almost fully automated with robots. Geromel adds that China has more industrial robots than the rest of the world combined and has begun buying the companies that make these robots, dominating the entire chain. In humanoid robots, China is by far the global leader; the two largest companies are Unitree and AgiBot. Current humanoid use is limited to universities and events, but Geromel frames it like Bill Gates's early PC vision and says China sees robots as the answer to its demographic decline.
ROBO LONG
HIGH
21:00
Aug 20
Aug 20
Market Makers
15d
BOVA11.SA
Brazilian Interest Rates
Brazilian Corporate Credit
▾
HIGH
High rates are crushing leveraged Brazilian companies.
Brazil's current regime of high real interest rates and expanding public spending is causing a massive wave of corporate bankruptcies, as companies with leverage over 2x cannot survive. The capital markets have been closed for new issuances for four years, and a fiscal policy adjustment is urgently needed to bring the yield curve down, revive credit, and drive investors back into equities and alternative assets.
BOVA11.SA WATCH
Brazilian Interest Rates WATCH
Brazilian Corporate Credit AVOID
HIGH
21:00
Aug 18
Aug 18
Market Makers
17d
GE 1ST
NVDA 1ST
SMH 1ST
AMZN 1ST
EWZ 1ST
▾
HIGH
Sold due to low expected returns.
Despite being an exceptional business with a dominant market share in aircraft engines, the stock was sold because its price appreciation compressed the expected return below the minimum required threshold.
GE AVOID
Avoid AI hardware due to profit uncertainty.
While AI is a transformational technology, it is impossible to predict how profits will be distributed among LLMs, cloud providers, and chip makers like Nvidia. It is better to avoid consensus AI hardware and infrastructure trades due to this uncertainty.
NVDA AVOID
SMH AVOID
Holds a large position in Amazon.
Amazon is held as a relatively large position and is the only significant exposure to the AI theme in the portfolio, though it was purchased prior to the current AI boom.
AMZN LONG
Extreme pessimism created attractive valuations in Brazil.
Risks in Brazil are currently overestimated and returns are underestimated due to extreme market pessimism. High-quality Brazilian companies are trading at attractive valuations, prompting a reallocation of about 11% of the fund into two Brazilian equities.
EWZ LONG
AI increases competition and erodes software returns.
AI has caused an explosion in software production capacity, which will likely increase competition and erode returns for many software companies. Most software exposure was sold to avoid this disruption.
IGV AVOID
Market power captures AI productivity gains.
Danaher is the fund's largest position. It has strong market power and barriers to entry, allowing it to capture AI-driven productivity gains in its margins rather than passing them on to consumers.
DHR LONG
Industrial gases are protected from AI disruption.
Linde is a large position because its industrial gas business is highly protected from AI disruption. It operates like an unregulated utility with very low tail risk and highly predictable returns.
LIN LONG
HIGH
23:00
Aug 17
Aug 17
Market Makers
18d
SMH 1ST
KBE 1ST
COE 1ST
DBA
FXY
▾
HIGH
AI semiconductor supercycle still early.
AI is a multi-year technology supercycle, likely lasting 8-10 years, and is only in year two or three. US hyperscaler AI cloud backlog reached around $1.73 trillion, roughly double the US defense backlog, and TAG has 60+ AI projects where models are exceeding expectations. Corrections like the memory selloff created entry points in memory names within the AI/semiconductor supply chain.
SMH LONG
Favor foreign banks for AI productivity.
AI is highly deflationary over time and the next major beneficiaries are users of AI, especially service businesses such as banks, insurers, law firms and accounting firms, which can reduce costs and expand margins. He specifically likes foreign banks for this reason, while avoiding Brazilian banks because of credit discomfort.
KBE LONG
Avoid Brazilian structured retail credit products.
Brazilian financial deepening has distributed COEs, dubious credit, and CRIs/CRAs with weak or no guarantees to retail clients. These products will default and damage confidence and trust in the investment platforms, while industry incentives pushed distribution even when asset quality was poor.
COE AVOID
El Niño may lift agricultural commodities.
El Niño has a very high probability of being severe or among the worst in history, and some agricultural commodities are already moving higher. This could drive food inflation and affect Brazil's election, so agricultural commodity upside pressure is worth monitoring.
DBA WATCH
Monitor yen carry trade unwind risk.
The yen-funded carry trade is massive, and an abrupt unwind could trigger forced selling of long-term US Treasuries. The Yen weakened to 162-173, Japan became very cheap, and US Treasury officials are already intervening to signal that speculation will not be one-way. This is a key global risk to monitor.
FXY WATCH
Brazil chronic deterioration; avoid broad exposure.
With debt near 80% of GDP and real rates around 8%, Brazil would need roughly 6.4% combined primary surplus and growth to stabilize debt, which is practically impossible. He sees a real fiscal-dominance risk and expects the government will only act after the dollar spikes and inflation rises, making him medium-term bearish on Brazil.
BOVA11.SA AVOID
HIGH
21:00
Aug 16
Aug 16
Market Makers
19d
BOVA11.SA 1ST
▾
HIGH
Brazil lives normalized civil war, weak sovereignty.
Pondé argues Brazil is suffering institutional degradation across branches of government and even in the market itself, creating a 'vale tudo' credibility problem. He says corruption is structural and that the next scandal is unpredictable, citing the Banco Master case as an example of this institutional accommodation.
BOVA11.SA AVOID
HIGH
21:00
Aug 15
Aug 15
Market Makers
20d
CASH3.SA 1ST
BTC 1ST
MSTR 1ST
▾
MED
Méliuz cash flow supports Bitcoin accumulation.
Méliuz is cited as a Brazilian company with cash flow that accumulates Bitcoin with cash flow, making it fundamentally different from cashless Bitcoin-treasury companies that collapsed 90-99%; this cash-flow backing supports its Bitcoin accumulation model.
CASH3.SA LONG
Buy Bitcoin when people ignore it.
A study of three on-chain indicators shows when MVRV, Supply in Profit, and Long-Term Holder Profit touched current levels, Bitcoin returned median 66%, 92%, and 108% over the next 12 months, with 91%, 99%, and 100% positive cases, respectively; aggregated analogous scenarios point to higher prices after a possible 2-4 month negative window.
BTC LONG
Strategy Bitcoin sales not death spiral.
Strategy's Bitcoin sales are natural treasury management, not a death spiral: it has already built a colossal Bitcoin reserve, has/had cash flow, covers preferred dividend obligations such as STRC, and built Bitcoin-collateralized financial products; the market may be overreacting to the broken 'never sell' narrative.
MSTR LONG
MED
00:00
Aug 14
Aug 14
Market Makers
22d
EWZ
▾
MED
Brazil assets face gradual Lula reelection risk
Faria argues that Brazil's market is already pricing a Lula 2026 re-election, with Polymarket showing more than 60% probability, so a Lula victory would not be a surprise. However, he does not believe the market has fully priced how bad a Lula 4 could be; he expects Brazilian assets to deteriorate gradually rather than suffer an abrupt foreign selloff, using the frog-in-boiling-water analogy. He adds that local investors are more scared than foreigners and that protective positioning makes sense because the election is extremely tight.
EWZ AVOID
MED
23:00
Aug 13
Aug 13
Market Makers
22d
SMAL11.SA 1ST
EWZ 1ST
FXI 1ST
BOVA11 1ST
BOVA11.SA 1ST
▾
HIGH
Avoid small caps; prefer large-cap Ibovespa.
High Selic and long-term Brazilian interest rates make small caps the most vulnerable part of the equity market because those companies are domestic and capital-needy. Faria says he has been recommending avoiding small caps for at least two months. The small-cap index is also structurally unfavorable because it tends to receive stocks rejected from the Ibovespa and lose winners that migrate to the Ibovespa, acting like a "série B". In contrast, the Ibovespa is relatively better positioned because it includes commodity exporters such as Petrobras, Vale and Suzano, plus Embraer, WEG, utilities, banks and insurers that are less affected by this domestic rate dynamic.
SMAL11.SA AVOID
BOVA11.SA LONG
Avoid Brazil and China equities now.
Faria says that right now he does not like either China or Brazil. For Brazil, the macro backdrop of very high interest rates is unattractive, so he prefers internationalizing capital away from these two markets.
EWZ AVOID
FXI AVOID
Hold Selic for high carry premium.
Faria likes two B3 ETFs: the low-volatility ETF ("Livol") and the dividend ETF ("IDIV"). He argues they hold better-quality companies, avoid the structural problem of the small-cap index, and over the long term have outperformed the Ibovespa while providing better downside cushioning.
BOVA11 LONG
DIVO11.SA LONG
US equities favored for internationalization.
As an internationalization alternative, Faria says the United States is doing well and he likes it. He notes that buying the S&P 500 when the dollar was around 6.20 produced more than 30% gains, compared with roughly 24% for CDI, so the S&P 500 was a good international allocation.
SPY LONG
MSCI ex-China ex-US should outperform.
Faria also expects the MSCI index excluding China and excluding the United States to perform well, offering another way to internationalize while avoiding China and the US-only exposure.
ACWX LONG
Watch DI28 at 13.75 for equities.
Faria uses a long-term concentration model for DI rates. When the DI yield is below the long-term concentration line, rates are in a downtrend and Brazilian equities tend to rally; when it is above, rates are in an uptrend and he becomes cautious. The model flipped bullish for rates in early March 2025, so he reversed his optimistic equity call. The key level is DI January 2028 at 13.75%. If the market prices more rate cuts and DI28 loses 13.75%, he expects yields to fall and the outlook for Brazilian equities to improve.
DI1F28 WATCH
HIGH
21:30
Aug 13
Aug 13
Market Makers
22d
ARS 1ST
ARGT 1ST
Argentine oil & gas sector
Argentine mining sector
Argentine agriculture sector
▾
HIGH
Avoid peso; real rates deeply negative
Com inflação esperada de 30% em 2026 e 22% no ano seguinte, juro básico de 20% e depósitos bancários ao redor de 15%, a taxa real em pesos é fortemente negativa. Por isso, poupar em peso destrói poder de compra e os argentinos preferem dólar. José Carlos cita o histórico de calotes e de tentativas fracassadas de usar juro real negativo para sustentar que a moeda local deve continuar sendo evitada.
ARS AVOID
Overvalued currency and election; avoid Argentina
O fundo da Vinicas apostou na Argentina desde o início do governo Milei e rendeu 40% em dólares, mas foi encerrado porque os preços já incorporam o ajuste fiscal. O câmbio real está tão apreciado quanto no fim da conversibilidade, a âncora cambial é artificial e a eventual flutuação do câmbio deve causar perdas relevantes em ativos argentinos medidos em dólar. Some-se a eleição de 2026 competitiva, risco de corrida e mecanismos do tipo corralito, além de reservas frágeis.
ARGT AVOID
Argentina's commodity export sectors are booming
A economia argentina está em forma de K: petróleo, gás, mineração e agro estão crescendo fortemente, puxados por vantagens comparativas como Vaca Muerta, enquanto metade dos setores da oferta e a indústria/manufatura encolhem. Esses setores exportadores tendem a se beneficiar da produção crescente de petróleo, gás e mineração.
Argentine oil & gas sector LONG
Argentine mining sector LONG
Argentine agriculture sector LONG
Avoid local dollar deposits; corralito risk
As reservas internacionais argentinas de cerca de US$ 42 bilhões incluem quase US$ 30 bilhões de depósitos compulsórios de clientes em dólares. Em caso de necessidade, o governo pode se apropriar desses recursos, como ocorreu no corralito. Por isso, dólar depositado em banco local não é a mesma coisa que dólar em Nova York.
Argentine bank dollar deposits AVOID
HIGH
23:00
Aug 12
Aug 12
Market Makers
23d
Tesouro IPCA+ 2035
NTNB 2035
▾
HIGH
Public bonds pay 8% real guaranteed.
If a credible presidential candidate committed to fiscal adjustment wins, Brazilian long real yields would start falling before measures are approved, as market credibility compresses risk premium; the speaker cites Temer's entry and says if Tesouro IPCA+ 2035/NTNB 2035 yields fall from around 8% to 6%, half the fiscal adjustment is already effectively done, creating an election-driven rally in long inflation-linked bonds.
Tesouro IPCA+ 2035 LONG
NTNB 2035 WATCH
HIGH
21:00
Aug 12
Aug 12
Market Makers
23d
EWZ
▾
HIGH
Monitor Brazil's gross debt for fiscal risks.
Brazil's fiscal trajectory is highly concerning because government spending and subsidized credit are growing faster than record tax revenues. The current fiscal framework is structurally flawed, allowing expenses to rise alongside revenues while excluding significant off-budget items like precatórios. Investors must monitor the gross debt—specifically the IMF's broader metric which includes Central Bank repo operations and is already at 95% of GDP—as the true thermometer of Brazil's fiscal deterioration, which forces structurally high real interest rates.
EWZ WATCH
HIGH
23:11
Aug 11
Aug 11
Market Makers
24d
SPY 1ST
MSCI ACWI ex-US ex-China
ELVL11.SA 1ST
NTNB 2035 (Tesouro IPCA+ 2035)
BNO 1ST
▾
HIGH
Prefira ações americanas pela economia forte
A economia americana segue forte, com lucros corporativos elevados e mercado de trabalho resilient; altas pontuais de juros não matam um bull market. Ele está otimista com os Estados Unidos e recomenda alocar na bolsa americana.
SPY LONG
MSCI ex-US ex-China para diversificar
Como parte da internacionalização, ele vê boa performance no MSCI ex-China e também ex-Estados Unidos, oferecendo diversificação benéfica em relação ao risco doméstico.
MSCI ACWI ex-US ex-China LONG
Low vol e dividend ETFs vencem Ibovespa
Os índices de baixa volatilidade (Livol) e dividendos (Idiv) tendem a apresentar performance superior ao Ibovespa no longo prazo, oferecendo um amortecimento nas quedas e melhor relação risco-retorno.
ELVL11.SA LONG
DIVO LONG
Evite NTNB 2035 sem reforma fiscal
Sem uma atitude concreta de ajuste fiscal por parte do próximo governo, o juro longo brasileiro permanecerá pressionado, tornando as NTNBs de longo prazo pouco atrativas. A NTNB 2035, que atualmente rende cerca de 8% reais, ainda embute risco de alta se a credibilidade não for restaurada.
NTNB 2035 (Tesouro IPCA+ 2035) AVOID
Petróleo cai por excesso de oferta
Há uma enorme sobra de petróleo prevista para o próximo ano (3 a 4 milhões de barris/dia) com produção americana subindo, estoques comerciais confortáveis e crack spread extremamente elevado. Se a guerra acabar e Ormuz não for fechado, o Brent pode cair para a faixa de $55-$60, sendo desinflacionário globalmente.
BNO SHORT
Mantenha-se na Selic por altos retornos
Com a Selic em 14% e juro real elevado, a renda fixa pós-fixada paga um prêmio muito atraente. Ele recomenda manter posição na Selic como alternativa segura enquanto o cenário permanece incerto.
LFTS11.SA LONG
Evite Brasil devido à fragilidade fiscal
O Brasil apresenta fragilidade fiscal imensa, juros reais próximos de 9% e déficit nominal elevado, tornando o ambiente hostil para ativos brasileiros. Ele afirma não gostar de Brasil, recomendando evitar exposição geral ao país.
IBOV AVOID
Evite small caps com juros elevados
Com juros reais extremamente elevados, as empresas de menor capitalização (small caps) são as mais penalizadas, pois dependem de crédito e mercado interno; a correlação inversa entre o DI 2035 e o SMAL11 mostra que enquanto o juro longo está em tendência de alta, o índice small cap cai. Por isso, nos últimos dois meses ele tem recomendado fugir de small caps.
SMAL11.SA AVOID
HIGH
23:02
Aug 10
Aug 10
Market Makers
25d
BOVA11.SA 1ST
▾
MED
Flávio win triggers equity rally.
If Flávio Bolsonaro wins the presidential election, the market will give him the benefit of the doubt due to his pro-market campaign messaging, triggering a honeymoon rally in Brazilian assets that could last months.
BOVA11.SA LONG
MED
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